Villanova 6.5 favorite

[Danzz]

Sounds about right.

 

[QDOG5]

I'd lay the points. Mich is a good team and Nova is a great team. Nova has won every game in the tourney by double digits and I don't see that changing Monday night.

 

[mussels]

I think Nova will have its hands full because it's hard to hit three's in a dome.

Didn't catch the game last night - anything noteworthy happen ?

 

[Travelman6]

Didn't catch the game last night - anything noteworthy happen ?

Nova jumped out to a 22-4 lead and never looked back, hit 18-40 from 3, Kansas never threatened, never got it closer than 12 or 13 and Nova won with ease.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is a big enough spread that a backdoor cover is a possibility. Stay away from this game.

 

[gtcam]

That side of the bracket is so weak that either KU or Nova would be prohibitive favorites.
If Michigan plays like it did the last 1/3 of the season, they stand a chance but I am concerned about the size differential but they have athletes
Too bad Loyola went dry the final 6 minutes - always love a Cinderella story- and being a older team, if things went right, would have given either team fits
Maybe wrong, but I don't see Nova hitting all those 3's - Beilein won't let them have the open shots - he is one heck of a game coach - best in NCAA

 

[jayteeman]

Easily the most exciting "team" to watch since the Huskies of 2014. Every aspect of movement, defending, shooting and winning balls.
They were a no brainer pick to win it all and on a level of their own.

 

[djct1999]

I am not sure Michigan can play in the same gym as nova. This game may be over by the 8 min timeout in the first half. If Michigan plays like it did Sat they will lose by 20.

 

[Purple Stein]

This is a big enough spread that a backdoor cover is a possibility. Stay away from this game.

This. I don't like this number at all and can imagine too many puke-inducing endings with that spread in this game.

 

[A10 fan]

I expect Nova to run them out of the building. It might be the worst Final since UNLV destroyed Duke, at least since UConn - Butler.

 

[mussels]

I expect Nova to run them out of the building. It might be the worst Final since UNLV destroyed Duke, at least since UConn - Butler.

Don't forget 2004 Uconn - Georgia Tech. Final was 82-73 but game was never competitive. 41 -26 at the half and they never threatened.

 

[A10 fan]

Don't forget 2004 Uconn - Georgia Tech. Final was 82-73 but game was never competitive. 41 -26 at the half and they never threatened.

Forgot about that one. The Butler game was close early in the second half, and then UConn totally shut Butler down. That said, I never saw anything like that UNLV - Duke game. This was before Duke had won any titles. I actually felt sorry for them during that run where UNLV just destroyed them. The entire game is on youtube. When I'm in a Duke hating mood, I'll watch part of it. It always makes me feel better.

 

[auror]

Michigan has the length and mobile bigs to cover Villanova on the perimeter. Sounds like everyone is taking Villanova. I'd wait, see if it creeps up more and jump on Michigan + the points.

 

[UconnU]

I'm betting Michigan money line and praying Nova has a bad shooting night.

 

[champs99and04]

That side of the bracket is so weak that either KU or Nova would be prohibitive favorites.
If Michigan plays like it did the last 1/3 of the season, they stand a chance but I am concerned about the size differential but they have athletes
Too bad Loyola went dry the final 6 minutes - always love a Cinderella story- and being a older team, if things went right, would have given either team fits
Maybe wrong, but I don't see Nova hitting all those 3's - Beilein won't let them have the open shots - he is one heck of a game coach - best in NCAA

Kansas was a blue blood that had a very good season, but they were not a great team by any means. On a neutral floor I'm not sure they're more than a 2 or 3 point favorite over Michigan and even that would probably be too many. They had some real weaknesses defensively.

 

[champs99and04]

Michigan has the length and mobile bigs to cover Villanova on the perimeter. Sounds like everyone is taking Villanova. I'd wait, see if it creeps up more and jump on Michigan + the points.

Everything I've come to learn about college basketball over the last few years tells me you're right. Michigan is an elite defensive team with mobility at every position and the ability to switch 1-4. Those smaller, versatile teams are the sorts that have given them trouble this season. Providence was a very ordinary team and yet they came one possession away from beating them twice in three tries because of their willingness to play hyper-small with Bullock at the five. It's also worth noting that PC made it a point of emphasis to slow the tempo, which is how Michigan has traditionally played this season (324th in adjusted tempo).

But I also can't shake the feeling that this is some all-time juggernaut. Mikal Bridges is an upperclassmen who might go in the lottery and yet sometimes I forget he's even on the team because they have so many weapons. Whereas in the past Nova would have a player or two that you could hide a defender on (JayVaughn Pinkston, Daniel Ochefu), the addition of Spellman allows them to flood the floor with five shooters at all times. That puts so much torque on a defense that even when you're perfectly equipped to guard them, your margin for error is razor thin. On the other end, Michigan has had dry spells. Do you play Duncan Robinson big minutes and risk Nova attacking him with a superior athlete like Bridges? Do you play Zavier Simpson big minutes knowing Nova - already a borderline elite defense - doesn't have to guard him? Can Wagner give you 36 minutes like he did against Loyola given how much energy he'll have to exert defensively? Isaiah Livers was 2 defensive rebounds away from posting a 12 trillion on Saturday and you started him. At what point, for as well-coached and defensively sound as you may be, are you just outmatched?

Having watched Nova storm through this tournament, winning every game by double digits, I've gotten some '09 UNC flashbacks. You don't think of this Nova team having the same talent that UNC group did, but of the guys on that roster (Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, etc.), none turned out to achieve things at the next level that Brunson, Bridges, Spellman, etc. cannot. The splits ('09 UNC, 1st in adjusted offense by a wide margin, 18th in adjusted defense) are eerily similar to Nova's from this season.

We think of that UNC team as an all-time great, yet, much like Nova, they weren't the #1 overall seed in their field. They were a deep, skilled, veteran team that may have simply gotten bored at times during the regular season. I'm not sure years from now we won't look at this Nova team the same way.

 

[huskyrob1]

Michigan has the length and mobile bigs to cover Villanova on the perimeter. Sounds like everyone is taking Villanova. I'd wait, see if it creeps up more and jump on Michigan + the points.

Does Villanova have a comparable type and sized player who can guard Wagner?

 

[huskyrob1]

That side of the bracket is so weak that either KU or Nova would be prohibitive favorites.
If Michigan plays like it did the last 1/3 of the season, they stand a chance but I am concerned about the size differential but they have athletes
Too bad Loyola went dry the final 6 minutes - always love a Cinderella story- and being a older team, if things went right, would have given either team fits
Maybe wrong, but I don't see Nova hitting all those 3's - Beilein won't let them have the open shots - he is one heck of a game coach - best in NCAA

Does Villanova have anyone who can legitimately guard Mo Wagner both at the 3 point line and down low? They better have a rock solid zone but even there Wagner will score. On the flip side if the refs help out Jay Wright and give two fouls to Wagner early first half then Nova will cruise.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Don't forget 2004 Uconn - Georgia Tech. Final was 82-73 but game was never competitive. 41 -26 at the half and they never threatened.

That's a very similar game really. UConn was the most talented team in the country all year long in 2004 as Nova was this year. GT was a decent team, but that is about it. Same with Michigan. I'd say that Michigan is probably a little better than GT was. It shouldn't be close. Then again, it shouldn't have been close in 1985 when Nova beat Georgetown.

 

[Lefty2one]

Michigan matches up reasonably well with Nova but I'm not sure it'll matter. They are effectively a lesser version of what Nova is. Wagner going off, Spellman foul trouble and an off shooting night for Nova will probably be necessary for Michigan to win.

That being said, college basketball is such a mess these days that I expect a close game, analysis and logic be damned.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Don't forget 2004 Uconn - Georgia Tech. Final was 82-73 but game was never competitive. 41 -26 at the half and they never threatened.

What was the spread in that UConn/Georgia Tech final game? I know it wasn't a backdoor cover, but it got really close to being one of the most epic backdoor covers in history.

 

[Windsorlocks]

Don't really take this too seriously, since it is a streak that, like any streak, will end in time, but here are the two trends that predict a championship for Nova:

The two trends that indicate Villanova is about to win it all

 

[mussels]

What was the spread in that UConn/Georgia Tech final game? I know it wasn't a backdoor cover, but it got really close to being one of the most epic backdoor covers in history.

Connecticut -5

 

[whaler11]

If anyone was wondering who to back with cash this thread made the decision for them.

 

[nomar]

Did Raftery just call Nova "Seton Hall" as if he was having a flashback to 1989?