Vaccine and WBB

[Dokey]

Oxford researchers and their drug company partner seem confident in their vaccine to begin producing immediately with a goal of 100 million doses by September. It would be interesting to vaccinate everyone as they entered a stadium or arena. I remain doubtful, however. If there is a wbb season, I see it starting late, possibly January, conference games only, possibly only one time through, then conference tourney, then national tourney.

 

[eebmg]

If this is going to be the thread that posts surprisingly optimistic news on the Covid19 front, this article about adapting existing swab tests to detect the virus much earlier in the incubation period sounds great.

US germ warfare research leads to new early Covid-19 test

Exclusive: test has potential to identify carriers before they become infectious

www.theguardian.com

 

[JordyG]

I'd hate to say I told everyone so. Pretty much a month ago I commented on the unprecedented speed that researchers were going. I commented that researchers were doing all of their testing in parallel rather than sequentially. I noted that some were saying that by October they would have a safe and effective vaccine which they would dispense to essential workers first. I met with quite a bit of disbelief from commenters here. Yet, here we are. I've also said that there would be some amount of WCBB this season although the amount may be foreshortened, and I'm sticking to it.

 

[JonathanXIV]

I'd hate to say I told everyone so. Pretty much a month ago I commented on the unprecedented speed that researchers were going. I commented that researchers were doing all of their testing in parallel rather than sequentially. I noted that some were saying that by October they would have a safe and effective vaccine which they would dispense to essential workers first. I met with quite a bit of disbelief from commenters here. Yet, here we are. I've also said that there would be some amount of WCBB this season although the amount may be foreshortened, and I'm sticking to it.

Respectfully, a little early to be taking a victory lap.

 

[heavyhusky]

Wet blanket time. Developing a vaccine is a trial and error process, and without thorough testing we could compound the disaster. If there is a SAFE and EFFECTIVE vaccine by March 2021 we should count ourselves extremely lucky. Note also: 1) being vaccinated does not confer immediate immunity. It takes the body a while (weeks) to develop its antibodies. 2). The highest level of effectiveness of the flu vaccine in the last decade was 62%, so even a vaccine is not a silver bullet.

 

[msf22b]

I'm hopeful that the unprecedented parallel research into both medications and vaccines will come up with something that will allow (at least) a partial season and the opening of schools, colleges, and oh yes...the economy...that's pretty important eh?

In the meantime, we are hunkering down as instructed considering that the U of Washington's, Gates funded institute's effort at prognostication looks woefully optimistic.
[ ]

That's my most reasonable outlook at the moment...But, surely I know as little as the next guy...and I didn't sleep in a Hol......

 

[JordyG]

Respectfully, a little early to be taking a victory lap.

I'll get back to you.

 

[JonathanXIV]

I'll get back to you.

Better yet, wait a bit before declaring "mission accomplished."

 

[diggerfoot]

We are conditioned as a society to think about vaccines first, but of the 800 clinical trials occurring for CV-19 many are for post-infectious treatments, not vaccines. At least one, remdesivir, is "coming out of the gate strong." The advantages of post-infectious treatments over vaccines are: 1) It does not have to be administered as widely, thus a faster process. 2) It likely, though not guaranteed, will be vetted sooner than a vaccine and 3) in the vast majority of cases there are more antibodies in a "herd" of the pre-infected for a virus than the vaccinated.

Of course, on the other hand, there are far, far more profits to be made from vaccinations; see my first point.

 

[Cornell Lt]

In order for campuses to be opened for on campus instruction, the decision needs to be made in the month of July In order for administrators to make that decision they have to have at least a semblance of certainty as to testing availability and that state governments will have policies in place to allow it. July is 8 weeks away and a lot can happen in that time but it is a very small time frame.

 

[Dokey]

I would love for a vaccine to be available much earlier than most experts believe but I have my doubts. Still, a history shows that some breakthroughs come suddenly, almost by accident, and we need to start preparing now in case such a breakthrough happens. That involves figuring out how those vaccines are delivered. I am from Colorado where polio was far more prevalent than in other parts of the country. I visited friends in iron lungs, our movie theaters had seats removed to accommodate wheel chairs. My mother had me vaccinated on first day Salk vaccine was available in my town. That meant I could sit back months later and watch hundreds of my classmates line up at school for mass vaccinations. The Oxford vaccine may not be the answer but the process of delivering the vaccine starts now. The U.S. completely blew response to virus. We have one third of the world’s confirmed cases and more than one fourth of fatalities with only four percent of the world population. Our ineptness in fighting this pandemic is criminal. We need to be prepared for a possible vaccine. Until that happens, it is moronic to reduce the shutdown. This is WWIII. We need to treat it as such.

 

[and one]

I too doubt we have a vaccine anytime soon. While miracle drugs do happen occasionally, I suspect most would have a long development and testing history. The process of developing and testing the safety and efficacy of a vaccine makes having one available in the next 12 to 18 months best case scenario. And even then, who knows how effective it will be. 100 percent would be great but not likely.

Whenever we have one, based on what we have seen, the roll out will be messy. Just a guess but maybe a year before all those that want the vaccine will get one?

 

[MSGRET]

I would love for a vaccine to be available much earlier than most experts believe but I have my doubts. Still, a history shows that some breakthroughs come suddenly, almost by accident, and we need to start preparing now in case such a breakthrough happens. That involves figuring out how those vaccines are delivered. I am from Colorado where polio was far more prevalent than in other parts of the country. I visited friends in iron lungs, our movie theaters had seats removed to accommodate wheel chairs. My mother had me vaccinated on first day Salk vaccine was available in my town. That meant I could sit back months later and watch hundreds of my classmates line up at school for mass vaccinations. The Oxford vaccine may not be the answer but the process of delivering the vaccine starts now. The U.S. completely blew response to virus. We have one third of the world’s confirmed cases and more than one fourth of fatalities with only four percent of the world population. Our ineptness in fighting this pandemic is criminal. We need to be prepared for a possible vaccine. Until that happens, it is moronic to reduce the shutdown. This is WWIII. We need to treat it as such.

The US didn't blow it, some States didn't heed the warnings from the Federal Govt. NY and NYC both were telling their citizens that it was OK to mingle, go to restaurants, after the social distancing and other COVID-19 guidelines were put out. While you look at Florida that did follow them only ended up with a very low percentage of deaths. Florida was very pro active and it shows that it worked. Over 25% of the deaths in NY were from elderly care facilities, and it has been discovered that many of those were because the Governor forced those facilities to take in COVID-19 positive elderly even though there were beds available on the USS Comfort and at the Javits Center that were not used. Also many States did not have sufficient emergency stock supplies that their own commission studies had said was needed for such endemics. Yes the Federal Government did have some hiccups, but many of the problems are because of the incompetence of the States and their actions.

 

[HuskyNan]

NO POLITICS.

How many times do I have to say it?