Had some down time yesterday while watching England v Lithuania, and decided to look at the history of the Hex, and how many points it generally takes to ensure 3rd or 4th place. I am very confident the US will finish top 3, and probably top 2 (I believed we'd be top 3 before the thrashing of Honduras ... but, I thought I'd play the numbers game as it was a cold, dreary Sunday in NYC and the wife was out most of the afternoon, so had some free time)
Over the past 5 Hex's (when they went to this format), the fewest points a 3rd place team has earned was 14 (Jamaica in 1998), and the most was 17 (the US in 2002). The fewest points a 4th place team has earned was 11 (Mexico in 2014), and the most was 16 (Honduras in 2014).
Considering that, 14 total points should be enough to secure 4th place, and a home & home play-off against a team from Asia (probably one of Uzbekistan, Australia, or Japan), and 16 points should secure 3rd place. The US, sitting with 3 points today, has 21 points available to get in their next 7 matches. H/H v. T&T, H/H v. Panama, @Honduras, @ Mexico, and H v Costa Rica. Putting my magic hat on, I think we get all 6 v. T&T, 4 of 6 v. Panama (predicting a draw tomorrow), 1 @ Honduras, 0 @ Mexico, and 3 v Costa Rica. This will safely put the US in top 3 with 17 points. Any unexpected losses (meaning anyone but Mexico) will make things very interesting, and a little 'nervie' going in to the final 2 matches in October (Panama home on 10/6, and T&T away on 10/10). If you are any team, you want enough hay in the barn going in to those October matches.The plus side is teams from Central America always seem to neutralize one another, and nothing is a given. I am not at all concerned about not finishing in the top 4 (actually think we will finish top 2), but you do not want to be in that play-off match up v. a team from AFC. Last cycle CONCACAF played Oceanic, and Mexico got New Zealand.. a much easier match up than a team from AFC.
Now, would you rather have complete mayhem tomorrow, or have all the bigger teams win? Mayhem is T&T over CR, Honduras over Mex, and of course US over Pan, making the standings Mexico (7 pts), US, CR, Hond, T&T all with 6 pts), and Panama with 4 points. This keeps everyone in play, but makes it pretty messy. OR.... US, Mex, and CR all win, more clearly separating the top 3 a bit form the field.... I want mayhem.