There is no excuse not advancing. With 48 teams every group has what should be a free win. 8/12 3rd place teams also advance to the round of 32. Absent some weird upsets, if you win your group you most likely get a cupcake in the first knock out game. Truth is the US (16) should expect to win the group because as host, we don't have another top 16 team in it. Paraguay (40), Australia (27), and Turkiye (22). My travel plans also expect them to win the group..
For the US, finish first we play a third place team from Groups B/E/F/I/J, actual match up depends on which groups produce the 3rd place teams but someone like Qatar (55) from Group B or more likely an Austria (24) or Algeria (28) from Group J or a Norway (31) from Group I. In spite of the horror of watching our CBs try to contain Haaland, the US should beat any of these teams.
Finish 2nd and we pair with the 2nd place team in Group G. While ruining my travel plans, other than Belgium (9) should they not win G, Egypt (29), Iran (21), and New Zealand (85) are should win games.
Finish 3rd because we lose again to Turkiye and drop points vs NZ or Paraguay and we end up facing the winner of Group L either England (4) or Croatia (11) in Atlanta or Group A winner Mexico (15) in Mexico City.
If the US makes the round of 16 they will have to beat a better, higher ranked side, but the most likely bracket outcomes are the Group G winner Belgium (9) or the Group H winner Spain (2).
Point is, the US should make the round of 16 unless they finish 3rd. FIFA stacked the bracket to help the US have a chance is they limp into the knockout, but otherwise they should get to the round of 16 then bow out.