Given all that USF lost to graduation to last year, it's a minor miracle that USF is even in the discussion for an at-large bid this year (though I don't consider them a lock by any stretch). They graduated an All-American in C. Williams, the USF career rebounding leader in Jenkins, and a very key contributor in Stringfield.
And considering that USF also lost two-year starter Ferreira to injury this year, the miracle goes from minor to midsized. Those 4 players accounted for 72% of the team's scoring and 65% of the rebounding. (By comparison, Stewie-Moriah-Tuck accounted for 52% of scoring and 42% of UConn's rebounding last year.)