Count me as crazy but I actually think we are better off then most predict (the optimist in me shining through). I have been known in the past to overrate our team with regards to prediction of wins and I will say I didn't predict our seasons well the last 6 years or so with the mess the FHCs put us through. In those years I consistently predicted 2-4 extra wins but I think our new-age, yet experienced, coaching staff will do wonders with an above average-talent team. I think its crucial we avoid injury as some of our position groups lack depth (RB, LB, DB, K/P). However, for the most part the position groups either offer top end AAC talent (LB, RB, TE, CB) in a few numbers or a dearth of quality depth (WR, OL, QB). I think one of the positions that may finally turn the corner is the OL.
I know we've been hoping for this for a while only to be let down but a starting 5 that begins with (Crozier, Peart, Hopkins) looks great on paper and has the potential to be pretty damn good for the AAC as all 3 have very good track records individually. To go along with that we have some experienced depth which at the very least can be looked at as guys who have been in a collegiate weight lifting program for at least 3 if not 4 plus years (Shafenacker, Vechery, Oak, Rutherford, Hashemi). Add in a fewer highly billed freshman in Holmes et al. and I think some good coaching (relating to them, getting them to buy in, teaching basics first, not confusing them and not asking them to do more than we need them too, hell just teaching logically!) could have the chemistry on the line at a 5-6 year high. And chemistry is the most important thing. Having confidence. I feel like these guys have the potential for sure.
I am most worried about our secondary, specifically the safeties. There is minimal experience and minimal proven high impact guys there. That position can be crucial to success as a defense can be phenomal for much of a game but a couple of mis reads or poor fundamentals/techniques from that group and we could give up some homerun plays. We have seen that in the past.
With all of that said, if someone made me wager on an over under of 4.5 I would go over. If we can go back to the RE 1.0 days of just counting FCS teams as a win you are talking needing to go 4-7 from there on out. We could very well be starting 9 seniors on defense, have one of our most dynamic QB's in recent memory who has post HS success, a RB who may go on to set career records as an all-time great husky, seasoned TE's, depth at WR, and a innovative SEC play caller. With our mediocre schedule both AAC and OOC wise I believe 4 -7 should easily be attainable. I'm going with 6 this year. As someone said earlier we were a coaching decision away from starting 3-0 last year, and maybe a couple more from 4-0. Even in our miserable 6 year skid we have played close games and even won some against the tops of our schedule (Michigan, Cincy, Navy, Houston, Missouri, Temple, Louisville, Maryland) and I think that only illustrates the fact that the talent gap has never been insurmountable. It's more about whether or not the guys are bought in and feeling confident and that is something that comes straight from their belief in their coaching staff. And to add to the coaching matter point, game management and offensive play calling can literally only get better.
6-6 (not picking the specific wins yet)
