Updated Scouting Report for Xavier

[UConNick]

Quick injury update:

Adam Kunkel, who didn’t play last week, is playing tonight v St John’s.

However, Nate Johnson isn’t playing for Xavier today (knee).

If this is the same situation for Saturday, then Steele will be running a seven-man rotation with less-than-Samson minutes for Cesare Edwards (hasn’t played so far in St. John’s game).

Johnnies up 12 with 3 mins left in Cincy…

 

[UncleSpliff]

We’ll they just got destroyed at home vs St Johns. Bad loss. They got beat at home 2 weeks ago against Depaul. I said it when we played them. They’re a mediocre team. Can beat good teams and lose to bad teams.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Xavier now 3-5 in their last 8.

Kunkel is a better ball handler and distributor, but Nate Johnson is far and away their best three point shooter (39.4 3p%).

If you remove Nate Johnson, the rest of Xavier's roster shoots 30.5% from three.

 

[awfuldan]

@UConnStats nailed it on Nate Johnson breaking out against us last game. No way they win that game without his shooting, as bad as we played.

Xavier has been horrible lately outside of their game against us. Can't allow them to be the more desperate team on Saturday.

 

[aburks41]

If Nate Johnson is out for this game we should beat them by 10+

 

[storrsroars]

The way Xavier got beat down at home vs Johnnies, I had to check tonight's schedule to see if there was any chance of them slipping out of Quad 1. Thankfully only Murray St., Colorado St., and USC play tonight so worst Xavier could do is slip to 27.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

If Nate Johnson is out for this game we should beat them by 10+

Johnson is a big piece, but their four best players are still healthy.

 

[Umami Zen]

Keep ball out of Scruggs's hands

 

[Get a Job]

The way Xavier got beat down at home vs Johnnies, I had to check tonight's schedule to see if there was any chance of them slipping out of Quad 1. Thankfully only Murray St., Colorado St., and USC play tonight so worst Xavier could do is slip to 27.

To my understanding the "quad" rating for a game is not locked in at the time the game is played. For example, we could play and beat Xavier Saturday and collect a "quad 1" win, but if Xavier's NET ranking continues to fall, by Selection Sunday our team sheet will indicate that it was a quad 2 win.

In other words, the only time any opponent's NET ranking matters is on Selection Sunday.

Please correct me if I am mistaken, anyone.

 

[navery12]

To my understanding the "quad" rating for a game is not locked in at the time the game is played. For example, we could play and beat Xavier Saturday and collect a "quad 1" win, but if Xavier's NET ranking continues to fall, by Selection Sunday our team sheet will indicate that it was a quad 2 win.

In other words, the only time any opponent's NET ranking matters is on Selection Sunday.

Please correct me if I am mistaken, anyone.

Correct, it'll keep changing all the way through the conference tournaments. Marquette dropped from 29 to 31 and Seton Hall is at 34, so both are Q2 wins this morning. If they move up a few spots all of a sudden we double our Q1 wins. It's all pretty arbitrary and constantly changing

 

[storrsroars]

To my understanding the "quad" rating for a game is not locked in at the time the game is played. For example, we could play and beat Xavier Saturday and collect a "quad 1" win, but if Xavier's NET ranking continues to fall, by Selection Sunday our team sheet will indicate that it was a quad 2 win.

In other words, the only time any opponent's NET ranking matters is on Selection Sunday.

Please correct me if I am mistaken, anyone.

Pretty sure that's correct. It's why only one of the Marquette wins is Q1. I was just concerned that X could fall to 31 before we play them if the schools right behind them all won.

As an aside, I think Pitt might've knocked UNC out of the tourney last night. Bad loss for UNC - dropped from NET of 37 all the way to 45. They were probably a 10 seed at best going in as they're 0-7 vs Q1, but losing to Pitt means NIT or possibly Dayton if they recover a bit.

 

[Umami Zen]

To my understanding the "quad" rating for a game is not locked in at the time the game is played. For example, we could play and beat Xavier Saturday and collect a "quad 1" win, but if Xavier's NET ranking continues to fall, by Selection Sunday our team sheet will indicate that it was a quad 2 win.

In other words, the only time any opponent's NET ranking matters is on Selection Sunday.

Please correct me if I am mistaken, anyone.

Nailed it .If at all possible--Want your Quad 2 wins to trend to Quad 1 by Selection Sunday as you continue to win the games in front of you. That's one of the reasons why BET can be impactful to certain teams re: seeding based on the high quality of Tournament teams represented in the BE.

 

[Get a Job]

Pretty sure that's correct. It's why only one of the Marquette wins is Q1. I was just concerned that X could fall to 31 before we play them if the schools right behind them all won.

As an aside, I think Pitt might've knocked UNC out of the tourney last night. Bad loss for UNC - dropped from NET of 37 all the way to 45. They were probably a 10 seed at best going in as they're 0-7 vs Q1, but losing to Pitt means NIT or possibly Dayton if they recover a bit.

I think there's still a misunderstanding: It doesn't matter if Xavier falls below 30 before we play them. It only matters if they are 30 or better on Selection Sunday. They could be ranked 250 in the NET when we beat them on Saturday, but as long as they are top 30 on Selection Sunday, we get credit for a quad 1 win. Conversely, if they are 25 on Saturday but 161 on Selection Sunday, we get stuck with a quad 4 win, even though we thought we got a quad 1 win at the time. Also, the reason only one of our Marquette victories could end up quad 1 and the other quad 2 is because of the difference in how Home and Away games are handled as it pertains to the quadrant system.

Yeah, getting thumped by Pitt is not a good look for any would-be bubble team this year.

 

[NotADime89]

Rumor has it Bouk will be in attendance tomorrow....

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Rumor has it Bouk will be in attendance tomorrow....

@NotADime89 = Bouk's burner account.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Wanted to cross-post my Xavier Beat writer preview pod here: time stamped for when he starts

 

[awfuldan]

Rumor has it Bouk will be in attendance tomorrow....

I believe I saw on Instagram that Christian Vital is gonna be there too. It was a while ago though, so not totally sure.

 

[UconnU]

I’d like to see a big scoring run tomorrow. Haven’t had many 10-0+ runs this season. We’re one of the least streaky teams in the country.

 

[auror]

I’d like to see a big scoring run tomorrow. Haven’t had many 10-0+ runs this season. We’re one of the least streaky teams in the country.

That's pretty interesting. We don't give up almost any 10-0 runs (we're somewhere 10-15th least against). We have a pretty veteran heavy team and our defense is hard to score in bunches against (don't give up a lot of 3s).

We had a lot of runs against the crappy teams, but we haven't forced very many turnovers lately, which is a key to runs (a steal stops opponent from scoring and also gives you an easy bucket). Blocks should do the same though, so it's a bit surprising. Hawkins and Polley have missed like 20 combined momentum run 3s for the year. We might have a few more otherwise...

 

[BGesus4]

Unless I’m just too old to understand emojis, looks like Bouk might be hinting at being there tomorrow

 

[UconnU]

Seems like we’ve had to face all these quality teams in conference when they’re coming off a loss.

 

[UconnU]

Hurley seems very interested in building up Hawkins confidence.

 

[Friarsnoop]

Nate Johnson out for Xavier today. The luck continues.

 

[auror]

Nate Johnson out for Xavier today. The luck continues.

This is now officially karma for our last few years and earlier this year of s*** injury luck.