Updated Resume (2/24)

[Ant3411]

The tone some people take to other posters is pretty unnecessary. I make mistakes & say some iffy things after tough loses at times but I try to respectful to others when I disagree or point out a mistake.

I could be misreading your tone just how it comes off....we're all on the same team.

Common tone amongst lawyers...I've seen it too much.

 

[auggie22]

UNC is very mediocre this year and I think Marquette has a lot of talent. I like Marquette in this one.

 

[superjohn]

UNC is a 9 seed In Lunardi’s so they really aren’t a bubble team. Don’t really care who wins that.

They should be lucky to be a bubble team after tonight. Drubbed at home against Marquette and they have beat exactly nobody this season.

 

[Stinger92860]

looks like tonights game results were in our favor. If we can win out we would be the 3 seed in the BE tournament. That puts us in the ncaa tourney.

 

[Marat]

looks like tonights game results were in our favor. If we can win out we would be the 3 seed in the BE tournament. That puts us in the ncaa tourney.

As a 3 seed would be in Creighton side of bracket. Would love to face them again as opposed to Nova.

 

[ucawn]

As a 3 seed would be in Creighton side of bracket. Would love to face them again as opposed to Nova.

Hard to beat a team 3 times ?

 

[JB75]

Yeah so far tonight the teams we needed to lose have lost. S hall, unc, Dayton, last check Indiana was losing too

 

[JMick]

it's nice to basically be in control of our own destiny with 3 winnable regular season games to go while not relying on any games in the conference tournament. If we don't make it we have no one to blame but ourselves from here on out.

 

[TerryBoyz]

I love the fact we are having realistic conversations about the NCAA tourney,

 

[nelsonmuntz]

NO, You seem to have a bad take on how the bubble works. A bubble team getting hot DOES NOT increase the odds of other bubble teams getting into the tournament by taking the hot team — in this case UNC — off the bubble and into the Tourney. UNC getting hot REDUCES THE NUMBER OF BUBBLE SPOTS BY 1, making it harder for every other bubble team to get in. Plus, A Marquette win helps the computer numbers of all Big East teams who played or will play them.

Math much?

And people say I am an scalitohole.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Updated for Feb 25:

KenPom: 32
BPI: 28
NET 41

 

[Get a Job]

Hard to beat a team 3 times ?

Hate to be that guy (just kidding. I love it.), but this is one of those pieces of conventional wisdom that is not backed up at all by the data. From “It’s Hard To Beat A Team Three Times” | COACH BOB WALSH:

"According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.​

​

So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy."​

 

[Hi-Low]

Hate to be that guy (just kidding. I love it.), but this is one of those pieces of conventional wisdom that is not backed up at all by the data. From “It’s Hard To Beat A Team Three Times” | COACH BOB WALSH:

"According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.​

​

So over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy."​

Nice find....we'll be the 27.6%. Plus we have Bouk back who was out for 2nd game.

 

[Get a Job]

Nice find....we'll be the 27.6%. Plus we have Bouk back who was out for 2nd game.

I hope so, and I agree with all those who think we would have a great chance should we face Creighton again. I am merely commenting generally on the inaccuracy of this piece of conventional wisdom.

 

[Fatroony5]

Updated for Feb 25:

KenPom: 32
BPI: 28
NET (hasn't been updated yet). I will edit when it has been.

Up to 41 in NET. If they win out & win any games in BET, they’re playing for seeding.

 

[Husky15]

Butler moved up to 130 in NET making our road win against them Quad 2. Just inside the 135 threshold.

 

[Ricker]

Hate to be that guy (just kidding. I love it.), but this is one of those pieces of conventional wisdom that is not backed up at all by the data. From “It’s Hard To Beat A Team Three Times” | COACH BOB WALSH:

I suspect the data analyzed doesn't quite measure the spirit of the point. If you beat team A by 15 points twice, and then meet them in a conference tournament as a higher seed vs a lower seed, I bet you win again frequently. If you have 2 teams that can go toe to toe and you win twice by 3 points, I bet that 3rd game is more iffy. The spirit of the tough to win 3 times is more in line with the latter scenario. Analyzing all match ups doesn't really yield a conclusion that is worth much.

 

[Get a Job]

I suspect the data analyzed doesn't quite measure the spirit of the point. If you beat team A by 15 points twice, and then meet them in a conference tournament as a higher seed vs a lower seed, I bet you win again frequently. If you have 2 teams that can go toe to toe and you win twice by 3 points, I bet that 3rd game is more iffy. The spirit of the tough to win 3 times is more in line with the latter scenario. Analyzing all match ups doesn't really yield a conclusion that is worth much.

I suppose your point applies to anyone who is aware of the data but still talks about the difficulty for a team to beat a somewhat evenly matched team 3 times. I suspect, however, that the phrase is parroted so much that some casual observers have come to expect powerhouse team A to lose its third game against bottom feeder team B.

Perhaps the cliché should become, "It's tough to beat a good team three times."

 

[HuskyHawk]

Whoa there. Slow your roll with the actual content. This thread exists so people can yell at strangers on the internet.

He said what I've always understood. Seeding may reflect what your team did with the roster you have coming in to the tournament. That cuts both ways. Assuming we can get in, I expect our seeding to be better than "last four in".

 

[Brochacho]

Seton Hall is a must win. Going into the BET 1-5 against teams that have a chance at the tourney (Xavier, SHU, Nova, Creighton) would be bad. Just beating two of the worst teams in the league at home doesn’t move the needle (unless we lose one, of course).

 

[navery12]

A few relevant notes for our quad wins/losses:

St John's at 77 in NET, if they can get up to 75 our only Q3 loss becomes Q2

Providence up to 80 in NET, if they move up to 75 that becomes a Q1 loss and Q2 win (currently Q2 loss and Q3 win)

 

[Get a Job]

I don't see the problem. In that scenario you trust Palm. Duh!

 

[Storrs South]

Here's the latest team sheet if you want to see the whole picture (Providence/SJU/Marquette all have opportunities to get within top 75 of NET which would be a big help)

Connecticut Huskies at Bracketologists