Just one point here - probation for a year is not quite a slap on the wrist - UNC during this year will need to prove that it has correct all the issues in the probation letter, and if it does not, the hammer could fall.
Agreed. I am fairly familiar with college and university acceditation, having worked on several iterations of it at my former school. The UNC admins are going to be even busier now, with a myriad of mea culpa reports, ongoing communications, and evidence gathering projects. The goal of this "homework" (insert sarcasm here) is to ensure, document and prove that these offenses cannot reoccur at UNC. From a board of trustees point of view, if this means terminating those who should have known of the scandal, then that will likely happen too. Boards exist to ensure the continued presence of the university AND its position in higher ed. And higher-level admins serve at the pleasure of the board. Most admins do not have "administrative tenure," and it wouldn't likely rescue them here even if they did.
I understand why casual observers might be led to think that accreditors are softies who have only the ability to critique, but not reform an institution. But such a view is, in my limited experience, quite incorrect. UNC is very much on notice that it must either get it right, or get "the hammer."