UConn's Season Needs To Be Re-evaluated

[Sphinx]

What early round NCAA results suggest is that BE mid-tier teams were seriously over-rated this year. Among UConn's better wins (we thought) were the four over Marquette and Seton Hall, two teams that were utterly crushed in NCAA 9/8 matchups that were supposed to be even. UConn's own first round loss only underscores the point.

If you re-evaluate the Marquette and Hall wins. what exactly is left to support the notion of UConn as a Top-20 team? Certainly not the six wins over bought cupcakes. Probably not the eight wins over Butler , DePaul, Georgetown and St. Johns. What's left to hang our hats on is the double-overtime win over Auburn, the miracle (ref-aided) win over Villanova and perhaps the overtime win over VCU. You can argue that in those games, although each decided by a final bounce or a favorable whistle, we proved that we can stay with best. Perhaps we also proved this in the closeness of our games with the top-tier of the BE, although going 1-5 against this bunch.

But here's the point -- here's what the NCAA early rounds are proving -- the woods are full of good teams who can stay with the best, even occasionally beat them. UConn was not exceptional in this regard. We were just one of many power conference also-rans and mid-majors who can give a biggie a surprise once in a while. What we perhaps never were, because of the persistent over-rating of the BE mid-tier, was the true Top-20 team we were touted as.

This is not the entirely negative assessment it may seem to be. It just might allow us a kindlier view of what our coach accomplished this year. Instead of seeing him as a coach whose questionable in-game tactics cost an exceptional team a post-reason run, we might see him as a motivating leader who guided a flawed and injury-ridden team to a season as successful as it was ever likely to be,

 

[aburks41]

The roster construction was...not good.

I was thinking about this the other night, in 2014, Deandre Daniels was the 3rd option for a "create your own shot" guy. Put him on this team and he is the CLEAR #1 option. There is still a long way to go with getting more playmakers onto this roster. Thankfully the recruiting has been extremely good so they'll come eventually, but let's keep in mind that 4 of the top scoring options on this team were Cole, Martin, Whaley, and Polley. None of these guys were even 4* recruits. The difference between these guys and the potential of a Bouknight or Hawkins type of player is night and day

 

[MexicoHusky]

We definitely have roster construction issues. That said, the difference between us and Arkansas (who is still playing) is not that great.

The roster construction issues are major issues that need to be addressed, but I think DH did ok for only having one decent guard he would play. I was content when we simply made the tournament.

 

[willie99]

OMG, I'm dying here

 

[Sphinx]

OMG, I'm dying here

Probably less the result of my post than a long-standing inner need.

 

[mrl2016]

Hall w/o Aiken in tourney

Marquette beat by a team that just knocked out #1 seed Baylor

I swear these posts just keep getting dumber

 

[Kolumbo]

8 wins over any teams, including Butler, DePaul, Georgetown, and St. John's, are very meaningful during the course of regular season battles. I get what you are trying to say but the same could be said about many teams in the top 25 and every other conference.

It's called March Madness for a reason. If everything went according to stats, odds, and expectations, it would be called March Mundane.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

We lost to a team that shot 65% from 3 and had a guy score 37 points.
No we aren’t perfect, but we could easily be in the Sweet 16 right now, and giving Gonzaga he**. Arkansas and NMSU looked extremely unimpressive last night. We caught NMSU on one of their best nights ever.
That’s March madness.

Kentucky had CHAMPIONSHIP aspirations this year. And they lost to the MAAC team in round 1. It could be worse folks. It’s hard to win in the NCAA tournament. Very very very freaking hard. We’ve been lucky to have a HOF coach and some bad mfin point guards. We were inches away from losing to Arizona in 2011, and an Amida Brimah and- one away from losing in round 1 in 2014.

The loss sucks eggs. Hard. But it doesn’t take away from the good season we had, and progress that was made.

I am concerned about next season though. Hurley has some work to do in the roster construction department.

 

[UConnSwag11]

 

[UConnSwag11]

 

[housekeys]

What early round NCAA results suggest is that BE mid-tier teams were seriously over-rated this year. Among UConn's better wins (we thought) were the four over Marquette and Seton Hall, two teams that were utterly crushed in NCAA 9/8 matchups that were supposed to be even. UConn's own first round loss only underscores the point.

If you re-evaluate the Marquette and Hall wins. what exactly is left to support the notion of UConn as a Top-20 team? Certainly not the six wins over bought cupcakes. Probably not the eight wins over Butler , DePaul, Georgetown and St. Johns. What's left to hang our hats on is the double-overtime win over Auburn, the miracle (ref-aided) win over Villanova and perhaps the overtime win over VCU. You can argue that in those games, although each decided by a final bounce or a favorable whistle, we proved that we can stay with best. Perhaps we also proved this in the closeness of our games with the top-tier of the BE, although going 1-5 against this bunch.

But here's the point -- here's what the NCAA early rounds are proving -- the woods are full of good teams who can stay with the best, even occasionally beat them. UConn was not exceptional in this regard. We were just one of many power conference also-rans and mid-majors who can give a biggie a surprise once in a while. What we perhaps never were, because of the persistent over-rating of the BE mid-tier, was the true Top-20 team we were touted as.

This is not the entirely negative assessment it may seem to be. It just might allow us a kindlier view of what our coach accomplished this year. Instead of seeing him as a coach whose questionable in-game tactics cost an exceptional team a post-reason run, we might see him as a motivating leader who guided a flawed and injury-ridden team to a season as successful as it was ever likely to be,

It's not that complicated. We were unprepared, came out flat and showed no intensity. We lost.

"UConn was not exceptional in this regard. We were just one of many power conference also-rans and mid-majors who can give a biggie a surprise once in a while."

Applies more to New Mexico State than UConn.

 

[aburks41]

View attachment 74654

This to me is the biggest overall problem we have under Hurley. We literally never win games that we "aren't" supposed to win. It's truly astonishing how bad we are at it.

 

[UConnSwag11]

This to me is the biggest overall problem we have under Hurley. We literally never win games that we "aren't" supposed to win. It's truly astonishing how bad we are at it.

In game coaching, adapting throughout the season, and lack of offensive scoring is keeping us from our potential. Everything else is very good to great. Can’t keep waiving pom-poms and making excuses for not producing.

 

[zepfan]

What early round NCAA results suggest is that BE mid-tier teams were seriously over-rated this year. Among UConn's better wins (we thought) were the four over Marquette and Seton Hall, two teams that were utterly crushed in NCAA 9/8 matchups that were supposed to be even. UConn's own first round loss only underscores the point.

If you re-evaluate the Marquette and Hall wins. what exactly is left to support the notion of UConn as a Top-20 team? Certainly not the six wins over bought cupcakes. Probably not the eight wins over Butler , DePaul, Georgetown and St. Johns. What's left to hang our hats on is the double-overtime win over Auburn, the miracle (ref-aided) win over Villanova and perhaps the overtime win over VCU. You can argue that in those games, although each decided by a final bounce or a favorable whistle, we proved that we can stay with best. Perhaps we also proved this in the closeness of our games with the top-tier of the BE, although going 1-5 against this bunch.

But here's the point -- here's what the NCAA early rounds are proving -- the woods are full of good teams who can stay with the best, even occasionally beat them. UConn was not exceptional in this regard. We were just one of many power conference also-rans and mid-majors who can give a biggie a surprise once in a while. What we perhaps never were, because of the persistent over-rating of the BE mid-tier, was the true Top-20 team we were touted as.

This is not the entirely negative assessment it may seem to be. It just might allow us a kindlier view of what our coach accomplished this year. Instead of seeing him as a coach whose questionable in-game tactics cost an exceptional team a post-reason run, we might see him as a motivating leader who guided a flawed and injury-ridden team to a season as successful as it was ever likely to be,

I agree wholeheartedly with your final paragraph. Also, that the NCAA is filled with strong teams on any given day. However, I wouldn’t minimize the wins against Seton Hall, Marquette, etc. Teams fluctuate in the quality of their play throughout a long season. Those teams had great wins and looked very strong at times during the season. Just as many other teams had ebbs and flows. Only the very elite teams stay at the highest level of play throughout the season. The metrics used to rank teams take into account the overall picture. UCONN only losing one game the whole season by more than 1 or 2 possessions is a strong indication of a team that deserved a top 25 rating. The lack of guard playmaking other than RJ and the lack of shooting across our roster made us vulnerable to hot shooting teams (e.g., Villanova and Creighton….. and New Mexico State.

 

[LIuconn]

How about pick up the only threat after he gets to 35 feet and make him drive. And not let him score 50%+ of his teams points

 

[auror]

View attachment 74654

I'm not sure this says what you think it does.

What this says is that the computer systems had us very accurately pegged and that we were a pretty low variance team. We returned a lot of our team from last year, had a veteran team, and had a lot of minutes consistency, so we were pretty easy to forecast. We were ranked 20-24th in the pre-season almost everywhere... and we finished 20th and got a 5 seed. And it's not like the ride was very bumpy. We were between 16 and 27 in KenPom the entire season.

In general our style is pretty low variance, too. We don't take a ton of 3's, offensive rebounding and defense is consistent home and away, and we don't do risky things like press or try to force a ton of turnovers at the cost of easy buckets to teams that can beat it.

Providence for example being 7-2 is because the computer systems underrated them all year and they were underdogs in games they should have been favorites in (like Home vs. Seton Hall). Their shooting is pretty streaky and their foul drawing can be subject to ref game variance. We were correctly forecast as underdog or favorite in basically all of our games.

 

[tentoes4rings]

How about pick up the only threat after he gets to 35 feet and make him drive. And not let him score 50%+ of his teams points

And not send him to the line 11 times on a night where he was red hot.

 

[Tenspro2002]

This to me is the biggest overall problem we have under Hurley. We literally never win games that we "aren't" supposed to win. It's truly astonishing how bad we are at it.

We need to get better at winning these games against elite competition, not merely making it close.

That said, there is a flip side to this, which is that we pretty much always win the games we're expected to. Some people want to brush that off as meaningless, but it's really not.

 

[Horatio]

Again, this years team needed nothing more than a senior Craig Austrie and we win two games minimum in this tournament. We just needed that kinda additional guard. IMO

 

[JustbrewitMan]

View attachment 74654

According to the metrics you just posted here, Villanova sucks just as bad as we do… Fire Jay Wright!!!

The way some of you guys look for excuses to wallow in misery, excessive pessimism and negativity is astounding

 

[bendm]

Hall got blown out because they know Willard is leaving and simply threw in the towel. Marquette had a terrible matchup against a hot UNC team which went on to beat a 1 seed… meanwhile Creighton made it to the second round and almost beat KU without 2 starters, and PC and Nova will be playing in the sweet 16…we were the only team that didn’t really have an excuse but it’s not a reflection of the BE.

 

[MexicoHusky]

I'm not really sure if the entire league criticism is warranted. Providence has made it to the second weekend. Nova may be in the second weekend. Creighton probably beats Kansas if the center was not injured. We may of been there ourself if Hawkins played.... despite all our issues at guard.

Hall was missing Aiken, but they probably lose anyways. Marquette fell apart late in the season. Those criticisms are legit.

 

[mussels]

This to me is the biggest overall problem we have under Hurley. We literally never win games that we "aren't" supposed to win. It's truly astonishing how bad we are at it.

The flip side of that coin is that we’re expected to win most of our game (and do), which is a good thing.

The relatively few games that we’re not expected to win tend to be against very good teams.

A mediocre or bad team will tend to pull off more upsets because they have more chances, and any group of division one players is likely to get hot once in a while.

 

[aburks41]

The flip side of that coin is that we’re expected to win most of our game (and do), which is a good thing.

The relatively few games that we’re not expected to win tend to be against very good teams.

A mediocre or bad team will tend to pull off more upsets because they have more chances, and any group of division one players is likely to get hot once in a while.

The floor is very high which is great. But it's still extremely puzzling that we can't even catch one of those teams on an off night, or we have a flukey good night, like ever. It just doesn't make any sense lol

 

[freescooter]

Hall w/o Aiken in tourney

Marquette beat by a team that just knocked out #1 seed Baylor

I swear these posts just keep getting dumber

Kind of proves his point, no? This year in particular there are a bunch of teams that can stay with and occasionally beat, the top teams. And I would add that I really don’t think there are any exceptional teams this year. As sometimes happens, 2014 and to a degree 2011 were similar, (remember 2011 had the highest combined Final Four seeding ever and 14 Final was between a 7 and an 8 seed) there are a bunch of good teams, and a second group of solid ones.