UConn's KenPom ranking 2-02

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn is only 35 as of right now, with Gonzaga still playing. There are 14 teams with 6 or more losses ahead of UConn in KenPom, including 3 that UConn beat head to head. What is driving UConn's bad ranking? Is it the 3 games against teams ranked in the bottom 10 of D1?

 

[bendm]

You probably answered your own question at the end there

 

[auror]

UConn is only 35 as of right now, with Gonzaga still playing. There are 14 teams with 6 or more losses ahead of UConn in KenPom, including 3 that UConn beat head to head. What is driving UConn's bad ranking? Is it the 3 games against teams ranked in the bottom 10 of D1?

This last month we've had bad performances and scoring margins.

DePaul, Providence, Creighton, Butler, and Nova were all some levels of bad to the system (3-4 rank drops per game). The Dayton game is likely our worst outcome to the model (but we "made up for it" in the games that followed).

 

[CTFaninCali]

This has to be a gaslight, right? It’s our league, but you will never admit it.

 

[7774]

This has to be a gaslight, right? It’s our league, but you will never admit it.

The models adjust for level of competition, so it has nothing to do with the league, or playing 3 bottom 10 teams. It is simply that we are not doing as well in the games as the models expect, so the models move us down. This Is so incredibly simple I’ll never understand how people can’t grasp it.

 

[UConnSwag11]

UConn is only 35 as of right now, with Gonzaga still playing. There are 14 teams with 6 or more losses ahead of UConn in KenPom, including 3 that UConn beat head to head. What is driving UConn's bad ranking? Is it the 3 games against teams ranked in the bottom 10 of D1?

Maui and no great wins

 

[djct1999]

We are going to be a fascinating team come March. The odds are we will be under seeded. Let last night be proof, as much as a roller coaster season this has been relative to expectations, there isn’t a team in America who will want to play us.

 

[NowInStorrs]

The Colorado loss isn't doing us any favors.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This last month we've had bad performances and scoring margins.

DePaul, Providence, Creighton, Butler, and Nova were all some levels of bad to the system (3-4 rank drops per game). The Dayton game is likely our worst outcome to the model (but we "made up for it" in the games that followed).

(all rankings KenPom)

Pitt (36) has lost 5 of its last 7 and plays in a much worse league. Louisville (30) seems to be highly ranked based on quality losses. Mississippi State (33) has 1 top 30 win and is racking up the ugly losses (lost by 27 to Missouri at home, by 10 to Butler on neutral). BYU has 6 losses and ONE Top 50 win (at home, in OT over Baylor), and has some ugly losses (-19 to Providence jumps out). Ohio State (25) is 13-8, but has quite a few home losses to "meh" teams (Pitt, Oregon, Indiana) that are supposed to really punish a team.

UConn is not the only team that looks weird. Missouri (23) has a bunch of great wins (Florida away, Mississippi, Kansas), no bad losses, is 17-4. 6 of Missouri's wins are outside the Top 300.

Marquette is too low, Illinois is too high, Kansas at 10 is too high (6 losses and only 2 Top 30 wins), there are other problems.

The NET (per Warren Nolan) seems to have similar problems..

Both KenPom and NET are used by the Selection Committee for seeding and field selection. I have always had a problem with the "black box" nature of these models, and it looks like there are problems with them. 2 that come to mind are:

1) There is some kind of implicit bias in the model based on the opening published results that never gets fully washed out as the season goes on. While it is normal to have a model mute new outlier information to keep the model from getting too volatile in the beginning of its use, the projected starting point should be completely removed by some point, and it is not clear that is happening.

2) The model over-weights immaterial outlier events. This is a flaw in many models. A 50 point win over a really bad team should not move a model over a 25 point win over the same team.. The people running these models claim this is not happening, but they are black boxes, so who knows?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Colorado loss isn't doing us any favors.

Agree. I am wonder why we are not 25. I get that top 20 in these models is out of the question.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The models adjust for level of competition, so it has nothing to do with the league, or playing 3 bottom 10 teams. It is simply that we are not doing as well in the games as the models expect, so the models move us down. This Is so incredibly simple I’ll never understand how people can’t grasp it.

You have no idea what you are talking about, which should be so incredibly simple that I will never understand how you can't grasp it.

 

[7774]

You have no idea what you are talking about, which should be so incredibly simple that I will never understand how you can't grasp it.

I see your severe case of vegetable genetics has flared up again. Thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Some of it has to be due to the crazy number of fouls we get called for which has resulted in a crazy number of free throws given up. Most of our other metrics looks good

 

[auror]

Torvik has a metric called "Game Score" (G-Sc) that you can see on his team page. It's essentially the margin of victory (including mean margin during the course of the game) adjusted for opponent and location. You can consider this "how the result of the game impacts the team's overall adjusted efficiency". This is specific to Torvik, but other than the in-game mean, it should apply pretty similarly to KenPom.

You can see which games really affected our rankings. Dayton, bad. Marquette and Texas on the road, good. Since the start of January (and missing McNeeley), we've had 6 white or light green-colored results, which are not up to standard for a potential top 25 team. At Georgetown and at Marquette were good results.

 

[upstater]

Torvik has a metric called "Game Score" (G-Sc) that you can see on his team page. It's essentially the margin of victory (including mean margin during the course of the game) adjusted for opponent and location. You can consider this "how the result of the game impacts the team's overall adjusted efficiency". This is specific to Torvik, but other than the in-game mean, it should apply pretty similarly to KenPom.

You can see which games really affected our rankings. Dayton, bad. Marquette and Texas on the road, good. Since the start of January (and missing McNeeley), we've had 6 white or light green-colored results, which are not up to standard for a potential top 25 team. At Georgetown and at Marquette were good results.

But UConn dropped 3 spots after beating Marquette?

 

[7774]

But UConn dropped 3 spots after beating Marquette?

We’re 31 today so I’m not sure what that 37 is.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

On KenPom we are the first triple digit rated defense in the list (118). Villanova at 56 is the next one. Improve the defense, continue the high offensive rating {11} and this should continue to improve.

 

[navery12]

But UConn dropped 3 spots after beating Marquette?

We’re 31 today so I’m not sure what that 37 is.

I think that's UConn's rank going into the game. So we dropped 3 spots from the DePaul game, and went into the Marquette game at 37 where we moved up 6 spots