UConn's Front-end Loaded SOS Dilemma

[CocoHusky]

IMO, AZ was the best defensive team UConn faced all season, ahead of both SC & Baylor. Despite a height disadvantage, AZ was also an excellent rebounding team. With that said, I think UConn had more talent that would have proved superior in a best of 3, 5 or 7 series. Unfortunately, in the Big Dance it's win or go home.

That opinion severely lacks any statistical foundation and defies belief. UCONN faced 4 teams that were statistically superior to Arizona defensively (SC, Baylor, TN, and Syracuse). Arizona was not a good rebounding team on the season ranking outside the top 150 in rebounding margin among all DI WCCB teams. Arizona also ranks 9th in a 12 team Pac 12 in rebounding margin. Specific to that FF game Arizona won the rebound margin by +2 over UCONN.

 

[oldude]

Guys, I respect the pushback I'm getting for the mere suggestion that UConn's conference schedule has an impact on their preparation for the NCAA Tournament. It was never meant to be an excuse, but simply an outline of the reality that UConn faces. I suspect I would be hard pressed to find a BY'er that wouldn't love to see UConn in a P5 conference. Part of that has to do with the money, but another part of that is the desire for WBB to upgrade their schedule and perhaps promote the continued success of the program in a PG (post Geno) environment. I would hate to see UConn become the answer to a trivia question 33 years from now like Louisiana Tech. I'll be 99 then, so I probably won't even remember what I had for breakfast.

 

[UConnCat]

Last year, UConn traveled to Arkansas and lost. Predictably, up sprang a panicked thread: "Has playing in the [whatever conference] caught up to UConn?" In other words: "Surely it can't be our team's fault for losing! It's the crappy conference we're stuck in!" As if UConn, in a dreamed-up scenario where they were an SEC team and this game had been an SEC contest vs. Arkansas, would have surely won instead.

It was actually better than that. After the Arkansas loss a Tenn fan spent the evening researching UConn's losses in close games since 2012 to support his theory that UConn loses more close games than it wins because it doesn't play many close enough close games. I'm exhausted just thinking about that post.

If only UConn played in a tougher conference they'd never lose a game! Sign me up!

 

[Vowelguy]

The frontloaded schedule strength could prove advantageous to UConn. A loss in the first 1/2 of the season does not affect ones seeding as much as a loss in the second half typically does.

There is no evidence of that.
Pollsters vote that way, but the committee takes the entirety of your schedule into account.

 

[oldude]

That opinion severely lacks any statistical foundation and defies belief. UCONN faced 4 teams that were statistically superior to Arizona defensively (SC, Baylor, TN, and Syracuse). Arizona was not a good rebounding team on the season ranking outside the top 150 in rebounding margin among all DI WCCB teams. Arizona also ranks 9th in a 12 team Pac 12 in rebounding margin. Specific to that FF game Arizona won the rebound margin by +2 over UCONN.

I accept your point on rebounding. But when it comes to defense, you are actually reinforcing my point on the benefits of a strong conference. AZ lost 5 games during the PAc-12 season. However, of the FF teams, AZ was the only team to hold all of its opponents under 60 pts in every game. Across 6 tournament games AZ held their opponents to an average of 52.5 ppg, second only to SC's 52 ppg across only 5 games. In the FF, AZ held UConn to 22 pts under their season average and then held Stanford to 24 pts under their season average. Clearly, the Wildcats were a much better defensive team at the end of the season during the NCAA Championship.

 

[MooseJaw]

I think we have to assess Christyn & Liv a little differently. During the second half of the season, once Geno tasked her with being the defensive stopper, Christyn played at an AA level. When she focused on defense, her offense was great, because she stopped worrying about it.

Liv is a different issue. Liv is a solid defender, rebounder and passer who can run the court and give you some points. She is not a “go to” scorer in the low blocks like Tuck or Pheesa. Frankly, low post scorers in WBB are going the way of the dinosaurs, just like in MBB.

What a dissertation to start the thread, really amazing. I want to hit on just a few points in no particular order and perhaps from a number of points above. One thing for certain our freshman will be thrown right into the elite WCBB fray. It may take longer with so many tough opponents right out of the gate. We may play SC in the first tourney, come home and prepare for a monster of pre-conference games. I am eager to see how Geno meshes the new with the old.
You hit the nail on the head when you called Liv solid in a number of skills, yes she is and most games she delivers a solid effort. IMO Liv has another level she can obtain, just like CW had. CW took the next step, I hope Liv finds that level and becomes a bad A in her attitude, we saw a few spurts last season, hope she flips that switch. She will never become that low post scorer you mentioned, it's just not her game yet. I differ in the thought that low post scorers are becoming dinos, they seem to be coming back to WCBB.. just look at SC, Stanford and a few of the low post players coming into WCBB in the next couple of years. I think we see where in men's, women's, college and pros when any team has a chance for that dominate big they move heaven and hell to try and get that monster big. Just think back a few short months ago when the hew and cry on the BY was to get that big transferring out of Syracuse.

 

[Aluminny69]

Keep in mind this was only a problem in Women's basketball. The men had their hands full in the AAC and now the Big East.

 

[Plebe]

Clearly, the Wildcats were a much better defensive team at the end of the season during the NCAA Championship.

They were a better team, period, on both sides of the ball. Arizona found its timely mojo in the 2nd and 3rd weekends of the NCAAT in a way that other teams simply did not.

Arizona, frankly, hadn't looked good all season long. On paper they figured to be a top-10 team (ranked #7 AP preseason) but they struggled to jell all season, skating by largely on their defense and looking often disjointed and lackluster on offense, right on through the Pac-12 tournament, where they were beaten soundly by UCLA in the semifinals.

So if being in the Pac-12 gave AZ an advantage in the NCAAT, why didn't it also help the team that dismantled AZ in the P12 tournament? After its run to the Pac-12 final, UCLA dropped a clunker in round 2 to Texas.

 

[Alydar]

1/17 Oregon
1/27 South Carolina
2/6 Tennessee

There is a general perception that P5 conferences are filled with great programs. The fact is that there are usually not more than 4 teams in any conference that are top 15 and that it's usually 2. The conference games in Jan & Feb include only 2 or 3 games that replicate the final four. The rest are no better than games against good mid-majors. The fact that Colorado can beat Stanford is due to Stanford playing a crappy game, not because Colorado is any good.
How many games will Maryland play in-conference that rise to the level of the 3 above games? Who exactly is NCSt going to face in the ACC as good as S Car? The only conference that can brag is the PAC12 and even for them it has been a recent development. Stanford has dominated the PAC12 for decades.

Sure, the BE needs to get better. It irks me that a lot of BE teams have no problem fielding an elite men's program. It's simply a matter of will.

 

[MooseJaw]

They were a better team, period, on both sides of the ball. Arizona found its timely mojo in the 2nd and 3rd weekends of the NCAAT in a way that other teams simply did not.

Arizona, frankly, hadn't looked good all season long. On paper they figured to be a top-10 team (ranked #7 AP preseason) but they struggled to jell all season, skating by largely on their defense and looking often disjointed and lackluster on offense, right on through the Pac-12 tournament, where they were beaten soundly by UCLA in the semifinals.

So if being in the Pac-12 gave AZ an advantage in the NCAAT, why didn't it also help the team that dismantled AZ in the P12 tournament? After its run to the Pac-12 final, UCLA dropped a clunker in round 2 to Texas.

YES, exactly a run by AZ came at just the right time, were the tourney a week or two later it may have been someone else on a run conference play aside. Some teams make a big splash for one game, we found out this past season when we played Ark. some teams like AZ sustain that run for consecutive games and more. Was AZ that team, one so much better when we played them, or were they the team that others beat. We can analyze the tar out of the outcome UCONN vs AZ, in the end teams have runs, they get hot at the right time, they did we didn't, end of story end of season.

 

[jchusky]

1/17 Oregon
1/27 South Carolina
2/6 Tennessee

There is a general perception that P5 conferences are filled with great programs. The fact is that there are usually not more than 4 teams in any conference that are top 15 and that it's usually 2. The conference games in Jan & Feb include only 2 or 3 games that replicate the final four. The rest are no better than games against good mid-majors. The fact that Colorado can beat Stanford is due to Stanford playing a crappy game, not because Colorado is any good.
How many games will Maryland play in-conference that rise to the level of the 3 above games? Who exactly is NCSt going to face in the ACC as good as S Car? The only conference that can brag is the PAC12 and even for them it has been a recent development. Stanford has dominated the PAC12 for decades.

Sure, the BE needs to get better. It irks me that a lot of BE teams have no problem fielding an elite men's program. It's simply a matter of will.

NC St playing Louisville 3 times is not a challenge? Maryland playing Iowa or Indiana 3 times are not a challenge ? I think you're selling short some of these programs

 

[oldude]

They were a better team, period, on both sides of the ball. Arizona found its timely mojo in the 2nd and 3rd weekends of the NCAAT in a way that other teams simply did not.

Arizona, frankly, hadn't looked good all season long. On paper they figured to be a top-10 team (ranked #7 AP preseason) but they struggled to jell all season, skating by largely on their defense and looking often disjointed and lackluster on offense, right on through the Pac-12 tournament, where they were beaten soundly by UCLA in the semifinals.

So if being in the Pac-12 gave AZ an advantage in the NCAAT, why didn't it also help the team that dismantled AZ in the P12 tournament? After its run to the Pac-12 final, UCLA dropped a clunker in round 2 to Texas.

Different matchups. Different games. In the case of UCLA, I would suggest that the Bruins got “Vic Schaeferred” when they were held to 14 pts in the first half. Not to be outdone, Vic’s team pulled off a defensive masterpiece against the high-octane MD Terps in the biggest upset of the tournament.

Beyond that, last season was not in any way “normal”. AZ shut down practices for awhile due to a positive Covid case with a tier 1 member of the basketball team. The team faced numerous postponements and cancellations, as did many programs. Stanford’s loss to lowly CO occurred when they couldn’t even practice in Palo Alto.

Teams reacted differently to the challenges of playing basketball during a pandemic. To AZ’s credit, they figured it out in the end.

 

[msf22b]

Sometimes analysis is too complicated
Leylah served poorly and had little chance

Liv, with a big height advantage was expected to dominate but was both ineffective and passive...
When that anticipated plus on the inside dissipated, the team was disadvantaged and lost.

Why do you think Geno accepted the transfer of an experienced big?

 

[ed4ourgirls]

. . . In 2012-13, the OBE sent 8 teams to the Big Dance. Three OBE teams made the FF. . . .

Speaking of the strength of the Old Big East, I recall that in 2011 the OBE sent nine teams
to the tournament, and after the first round all nine teams were still alive.

For a conference to go 9 - 0 in the first round of the NCAA tournament is a record that
will last for a very long time, if not forever.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Obviously Stanford and Maryland didn't want to play UConn

Do you know that for a fact, or are you just speculating?

 

[Alydar]

NC St playing Louisville 3 times is not a challenge? Maryland playing Iowa or Indiana 3 times are not a challenge ? I think you're selling short some of these programs

Louisville is a great program. That's one. NCSt & Louisville are 2 elite programs. That's hardly a conference. My point is that some seem to think that the P-5 is loaded with elite programs. They aren't. There are maybe a dozen elite programs in D1. The P5 has about 65 teams and the vast majority would pose no great threat to UConn if they met in February.

I Remember that when Notre Dame left the "weak" BE and joined the ACC. They were undefeated (in-conference) in their first 2 years (2015 & 2016). And despite the "gauntlet" of an ACC schedule to prepare them they didn't win the title in either of those years.

 

[BBallF]

The frontloaded schedule strength could prove advantageous to UConn. A loss in the first 1/2 of the season does not affect ones seeding as much as a loss in the second half typically does.

Very true. However, we ain't losing this year. Not once.

 

[Alydar]

Do you know that for a fact, or are you just speculating?

When the UConn-Stanford series ended Geno stated that Tara told him she "wanted a break".

 

[UConnCat]

Maryland was supposed to play UConn beginning last season. The home and home was delayed because of Covid. Hopefully it will start next year.

 

[Zanzman]

Do you know that for a fact, or are you just speculating?

Well Stanford backed off early I think Stewart’s senior year

 

[Plebe]

Teams reacted differently to the challenges of playing basketball during a pandemic. To AZ’s credit, they figured it out in the end.

And there you have it. That's pretty much the extent of it. Whatever their specific adversities and challenges, each team either figures it out and peaks at the right time, or they don't.

Battle-tested is a huge factor - both mentally & physically. Some on here refuse to admit it, saying things like "UConn wasnt good enough". I dont agree. Especially when the talent margin is slim among the top teams. When you get punched in the mouth, you have to respond. And, much of that confidence comes through prior game experiences, not X's/O's, practices, and game planning. Teams that go through these "tests" in Feb./Mar. are much better prepared for a Title run.

This narrative is just so facile.

The road to the Final Four and championship trophy is always littered with teams that took plenty of "mouth punches" throughout February and March and have little to show for it other than a bloody mouth.

 

[UcMiami]

There have been a few NCAA championships Uconn won where they won because their opponent needed to play their A+ game to even compete from the E8 on and otherwise everyone else was playing for second place. For the rest ... Uconn needed to play their A game to advance from the E8 on. Those last three games in the NCAAs are really hard to win and yet the 'disappointing' Uconn teams that haven't won the championship have for the last 13 have still won the E8 game every year. If they reach the FF this year and next (what we expect) they will have won 15 straight 3X the next closest school.

I don't think winning NCAA tournaments has anything to do with SOS being front loaded, back loaded, or any other quality. Geno and the coaches know what it takes to prep a team to win, and what it takes for a team to win E8, Semi, and championship games. Sometimes Uconn doesn't have the horses, sometimes they don't have the chemistry, and sometimes they lay an egg. And sometimes an opponent takes a game away from them.

Last year's team did well to keep the FF streak alive because Baylor, AZ, SC, and Stanford (and maybe a couple of others) all had the quality of team to beat them and Uconn needed to play at least their A game to win against any of them if they played well.

 

[hoophuskee]

I think these type of “blame it on the conference” discussions in some part has to do with a lack of respect by some for any program not named UCONN or the comments made that the team is somehow a failure if they don’t win it all with no appreciation for getting to as many consecutive FF’s as UCONN has had. For example, for some thinking UCONN will surely go undefeated and/or surely win a title this year—what happens if they lose during the reg. season? There has to be blame issued from some that think like that. They can’t admit that it was their outlook that was the flaw.

As a result, when UCONN loses any game and/or doesn’t win a championship, there must be someone to blame rather than they admit their outlook of probably not respecting the opponent was the flaw. There would be a denial admitting that they were wrong.

So we know what we’ll hear after the loss, right? Blame. We’ll hear the conference excuse, and/or the we weren’t ready excuse/ don’t have the heart etc excuse, and/or the coach’s philosophy excuse, and/or the game has changed excuse etc. Just keep throwing darts.

Instead, how about just giving respect to the opponent? Just because UCONN players put on the UCONN jersey doesn’t mean it turns them into Wonder Woman. Other teams have a great players and great coaches too. And UCONN is not a professional team thus susceptible to having a clunker too.

 

[Stymie]

The “front loaded” rant is ludicrous to me.
UCONN has to schedule tough games wherever/whenever they can.
Face it, most in conference games are a breeze.
If the schedule has to be stacked up front, that’s the price they pay for having a cakewalk in the BE.
Please also keep in mind that up front tough games early are also tough up front games for their opponents.
It’s just as early in the season for them.
It’s a two way street.
And personally, I’d rather find out who on UCONN is bringing game earlier rather than later.
JMHO

 

[Ozimoto]

I think it is the nature of many fan bases to "blame the team" after a loss. Not just here. Fans (short for fanatic remember) are not really too good at unbiased analysis and that includes giving the team that won against the team you live and die with credit for playing a great game in that given moment.

You should look at some of the football fan boards out there. Do you think the Oklahoma fans (were nearly upset by Tulane) are talking about what a good game the Green Wave played and how they are a much better team than anyone thought? No, I suspect there was wailing and gnashing of teeth over how Oklahoma played.

 

[visitingcock]

I believe it would be impossible for anyone other than UConn to win the NC this year. Why? Christyn and Evina will not allow this team to lose its focus. This is why Christyn came here, this is what Evina came here, this is why they will not leave without a NC. They will not allow this team to lose. These two will be relentless this season, so look out for some very inspiring play for these two. Go Huskies.

As a guest, I will be gentler than I would be with a Gamecock fan making a similar statement on a Gamecock board. I would first accuse them of reading too many Gamecock press clippings, drinking too much garnet koolaid and having no clue about the talent that UConn has - and is bringing in.

It is absolutely not impossible for someone other than UConn to win the NC this year.. Let's look at 2017. UConn thrashed SCar by double digits during the regular season. The Stewie-led Huskies were clearly the better team to me. One could have somewhat reasonably thought it "impossible" for anyone other than UConn to win the NC that year. And yet the Gamecocks won it after UConn fell to Mississippi State whom the Gamecocks would beat for the third time.

I love my team and any reasonable wbb fan would have to admit that there is a certainly a chance for us to win it because we are loaded with talent and most of it has been to the dance. UConn is also loaded with talent and has danced. However, my approach is somewhat like boxing's "To be the champ, you've gotta beat the champ." Until Stanford shows that they are not worthy, they are my number one team. It is not impossible for them to repeat.

And yes, I worry about NC State too.

 

[hoophuskee]

I think it is the nature of many fan bases to "blame the team" after a loss. Not just here. Fans (short for fanatic remember) are not really too good at unbiased analysis and that includes giving the team that won against the team you live and die with credit for playing a great game in that given moment.

You should look at some of the football fan boards out there. Do you think the Oklahoma fans (were nearly upset by Tulane) are talking about what a good game the Green Wave played and how they are a much better team than anyone thought? No, I suspect there was wailing and gnashing of teeth over how Oklahoma played.

I agree but Oklahoma fans aren't going to blame the schedule or blame their conference not being tough enough when they go against Tulane. And there is a big difference between Tulane vs Oklahoma in reg. season football vs UCONN losing to a FF team. As a result, AZ in the FF deserves a lot more respect than Tulane Football in a reg season game.

 

[hoophuskee]

As a guest, I will be gentler than I would be with a Gamecock fan making a similar statement on a Gamecock board. I would first accuse them of reading too many Gamecock press clippings and having no clue about the talent that UConn has - and is bringing in.

It is absolutely not impossible for someone other than UConn to win the NC this year.. Let's look at 2017. UConn thrashed SCar by double digits during the regular season. The Stewie-led Huskies were clearly the better team to me. One could have somewhat reasonably thought it "impossible" for anyone other than UConn to win the NC that year. And yet the Gamecocks won it after UConn fell to Mississippi State whom the Gamecocks would beat for the third time.

I love my team and any reasonable wbb fan would have to admit that there is a certainly a chance for us to win it because we are loaded with talent and most of it has been to the dance. UConn is also loaded with talent and has danced. However, my approach is somewhat like boxing's "To be the champ, you've gotta beat the champ." Until Stanford shows that they are not worthy, they are my number one team. It is not impossible for them to repeat.

And yes, I worry about NC State too.

I agree with everything you say love it all specifically when it comes to who can win it all- agree. No way is UCONN assured of a championship. And your team is a beast.

With that said I disagree big time with your boxing quote/analogy tying it to Stanford. This isn't boxing. Boxing is an individual sport. No players leave and come back like in cbb. Boxing and women's college basketball have no similarities other than a champion is awarded at the eventual end.

 

[BobbyJ]

As a guest, I will be gentler than I would be with a Gamecock fan making a similar statement on a Gamecock board. I would first accuse them of reading too many Gamecock press clippings, drinking too much garnet koolaid and having no clue about the talent that UConn has - and is bringing in.

It is absolutely not impossible for someone other than UConn to win the NC this year.. Let's look at 2017. UConn thrashed SCar by double digits during the regular season. The Stewie-led Huskies were clearly the better team to me. One could have somewhat reasonably thought it "impossible" for anyone other than UConn to win the NC that year. And yet the Gamecocks won it after UConn fell to Mississippi State whom the Gamecocks would beat for the third time.

I love my team and any reasonable wbb fan would have to admit that there is a certainly a chance for us to win it because we are loaded with talent and most of it has been to the dance. UConn is also loaded with talent and has danced. However, my approach is somewhat like boxing's "To be the champ, you've gotta beat the champ." Until Stanford shows that they are not worthy, they are my number one team. It is not impossible for them to repeat.

And yes, I worry about NC State too.

Stewart graduated in 2016 and wasn't part of that team.

 

[visitingcock]

Stewart graduated in 2016 and wasn't part of that team.

Doh!