UCONN vs Cincy and SMU

[jibsey]

We have to beat everyone else but against these 2 teams don't we have to at least go 2-2? I'm trying to figure out a way that our front line can match up. Not worried about Miller but Facey will have to play out of his mind. In fact Miller has to play every minute regardless of how many fouls he picks up in the first half. That rule has to go, 2 fouls he plays on.

 

[Ts5034]

Is a 14-4 conference record and splitting our remaining games with Cincy, SMU, and Memphis possible? I would sign for that right now. For all the RPI experts out there, where would that put us and what seed could we expect?

 

[huskyharry]

If we had to play both of them at once, we would have no chance!

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

Is a 14-4 conference record and splitting our remaining games with Cincy, SMU, and Memphis possible? I would sign for that right now. For all the RPI experts out there, where would that put us and what seed could we expect?

If that were to happen, and we finish at 23-8 (let's assume worst case scenario loss against G'town). This would be pretty similar if not better than Cinci's situation last year.
They went 22-9, 13-5 in the conference with bad losses to Tulane, East Carolina and Nebraska (NIT team or worse). Their ranked wins were home to 19 SDSU and @ 23 SMU (real good win). They lost in the first round of the AAC tourney and still got an 8 seed in the NCAA. The finished with a 41 RPI which is probably about where we would be (maybe a little worse) if we manage only 1 more WTF loss, and split SMU, Memphis, Cinci and get farther than the first round in the AAC tourney. We would probably be looking at an 8 or 9 seed.

 

[Kitaman]

SMU and Cincy aren't the teams that concern me. Sadly, its all the other 'forgotten' teams that scare me.

 

[mauconnfan]

Is a 14-4 conference record and splitting our remaining games with Cincy, SMU, and Memphis possible? I would sign for that right now. For all the RPI experts out there, where would that put us and what seed could we expect?

I would most certainly sign up for that now, but don't think it's possible. From what we've seen as of late this is an 11-7 team at best in the conference. Inconsistency kills.

 

[caw]

Theoretically speaking UConn could get the benefit of the doubt if it plays better once Brimah gets back. The NCAA has made similar adjustments in the past and has said they will take Boeheims suspension into consideration as well.

 

[upstater]

Is a 14-4 conference record and splitting our remaining games with Cincy, SMU, and Memphis possible? I would sign for that right now. For all the RPI experts out there, where would that put us and what seed could we expect?

26-8 would be a high enough RPI for UConn, about a 35-40 I'm guessing. A top 25 ranking. And about a 5 seed. I agree with you that this would be a very good result.

 

[upstater]

Theoretically speaking UConn could get the benefit of the doubt if it plays better once Brimah gets back. The NCAA has made similar adjustments in the past and has said they will take Boeheims suspension into consideration as well.

So they might reward Syracuse for violations? Perfect.

 

[Jerry1714]

Is a 14-4 conference record and splitting our remaining games with Cincy, SMU, and Memphis possible? I would sign for that right now. For all the RPI experts out there, where would that put us and what seed could we expect?

In that exact scenario it would have us with an RPI of 23.

 

[Tenspro2002]

26-8 would be a high enough RPI for UConn, about a 35-40 I'm guessing. A top 25 ranking. And about a 5 seed. I agree with you that this would be a very good result.

No 8-loss AAC team is getting a 5 seed. Those results, which, sadly (in context of preseason expectations), look optimistic at this point, likely end up with a 7-10 seed.

 

[upstater]

No 8-loss AAC team is getting a 5 seed. Those results, which, sadly (in context of preseason expectations), look optimistic at this point, likely end up with a 7-10 seed.

Did you have a look at the RPI chart predicting where UConn's RPI would be if it finished with 8 losses?

35-40.

That puts UConn in the top 25.

You would then have to ding UConn for an easy conference record, but forget about the fact that it went 4-3 against good P5 competition: Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgetown, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Maryland.

 

[UConn77]

Sadly, the way this team looks right now, I would be surprised if it winds up better than 1-5 against Cincy, SMU and Memphis.

 

[tcf15]

Sadly, the way this team looks right now, I would be surprised if it winds up better than 1-5 against Cincy, SMU and Memphis.

 

[upstater]

No 8-loss AAC team is getting a 5 seed. Those results, which, sadly (in context of preseason expectations), look optimistic at this point, likely end up with a 7-10 seed.

Did you have a look at the RPI chart predicting where UConn's RPI would be if it finished with 8 losses?

35-40.

That puts UConn in the top 25.

You would then have to ding UConn for an easy conference record, but forget about the fact that it went 4-3 against good P5 competition: Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgetown, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Maryland.

As I wrote in another thread, everything depends on the conference tourney. If UConn flames out there, then it will still make the NCAA tourney with 8 losses, but it won't get a decent seed. Similarly, last year, SMU had a much weaker OOC than UConn has this year, and still grabbed a 6th seed with 6 losses.

Now that I look at it, 5 seed may be too high. But I would expect no worse than a 6 since UConn's OOC is pretty formidable compared to SMU's last year. SMU also won't be in this year's AAC tourney.

 

[Inyatkin]

No 8-loss AAC team is getting a 5 seed. Those results, which, sadly (in context of preseason expectations), look optimistic at this point, likely end up with a 7-10 seed.

If you couldn't use the word "sadly," would you even be able to post?

 

[tcf15]

Did you have a look at the RPI chart predicting where UConn's RPI would be if it finished with 8 losses?

35-40.

That puts UConn in the top 25.

You would then have to ding UConn for an easy conference record, but forget about the fact that it went 4-3 against good P5 competition: Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgetown, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Maryland.

Trying to gauge from last year:

Cinci had a final RPI of 41

2-1 record vs RPI top 25
4-2 record vs. RPI 26-50
2-4 record vs. RPI 51-100
Ended up with an 8 seed.​

SMU had final RPI of 13

0-2 vs. Top 25
5-2 vs. 26-50
8-2 vs. 51-100
Ended up with a 6 seed.​

 

[Jerry1714]

Sadly, the way this team looks right now, I would be surprised if it winds up better than 1-5 against Cincy, SMU and Memphis.

Just not a smart post, like not at all.

 

[upstater]

Trying to gauge from last year:

Cinci had a final RPI of 41

2-1 record vs RPI top 25
4-2 record vs. RPI 26-50
2-4 record vs. RPI 51-100
Ended up with an 8 seed.​

SMU had final RPI of 13

0-2 vs. Top 25
5-2 vs. 26-50
8-2 vs. 51-100
Ended up with a 6 seed.​

But again, look at the actual schedules. UConn will have played 7 top 50 teams OOC.

SMU a lot fewer.

 

[intlzncster]

I will say this, both SMU and Cincy looked much much more aggressive and active on defense than UCONN does. I didn't get to watch the whole game, but the part I did see (around the time of the ejection), I was like, "damn, these guys get after it." Every possession was contested, every basket was earned.

 

[Silk31]

Sadly, the way this team looks right now, I would be surprised if it winds up better than 1-5 against Cincy, SMU and Memphis.

Damn that Temple game certainly did a number on some fans lol

 

[jibsey]

Right. And that's why I bring up how we are going to rebound. Miller is our anchor and Facey needs to bounce back big time. We are under size, weight and strength in these games down low and it honestly has KO in a box. Facey, Enoch, or Nolan has to give something they haven't. Who steps up? I personally think DHam will be one, and he rebounds great.

 

[UConn77]

Damn that Temple game certainly did a number on some fans lol

Not really. I have been a UConn fan for over 50 years, so there have been more than a few highs and lows. I'd love to see them go 6-0 in those games, but I am just not seeing any chemistry at this point. Clearly, the loss of Brimah is hurting badly, but nobody else has stepped up in any meaningful way to date. Let's see what happens on Saturday. If they kick , I'll revise my Eeyore-like prediction.

 

[intlzncster]

Not really. I have been a UConn fan for over 50 years, so there have been more than a few highs and lows. I'd love to see them go 6-0 in those games, but I am just not seeing any chemistry at this point. Clearly, the loss of Brimah is hurting badly, but nobody else has stepped up in any meaningful way to date. Let's see what happens on Saturday. If they kick , I'll revise my Eeyore-like prediction.

OK, but the point is, there is a huge difference between 1-5 and 6-0. 3-3 is a more reasonable projection. Although, like yourself, I'm pulling for 6-0.

 

[Ts5034]

Trying to gauge from last year:

Cinci had a final RPI of 41

2-1 record vs RPI top 25
4-2 record vs. RPI 26-50
2-4 record vs. RPI 51-100
Ended up with an 8 seed.​

SMU had final RPI of 13

0-2 vs. Top 25
5-2 vs. 26-50
8-2 vs. 51-100
Ended up with a 6 seed.​

I understand the concept of the RPI, what has more of an effect on it? A loss vs teams with bad RPI? Or a win vs teams with high RPI? Because from this post it seems that SMU ended up with a better RPI and seed in the tournament because they took care of business vs the teams they were supposed to beat (RPI 51-100).