You are underestimating Colorado’s win total. They will have a bowl eligible season.
Not so sure on that. Usually, the threshold to bowl eligibility is easy to meet with 6 wins. Teams load up on a few low-end G5 Schools and then try to win three or four games in conference. That said IMO there are no gimmes on Colorado's Schedule. Things are compounded by the fact that Deion is coaching what is essentially an expansion team comprised entirely of new players from all over the country.
Non Con:
TCU, Nebraska, and CSU are best case 2-1, but worst case 0-3 My pick would be 1-2
Conference:
After that they have games against ranked opponents in Oregon, USC, Oregon State, and Utah. I'm going with an upset somewhere, so 1-3. Their other games will likely see them as an underdog to UCLA and coin flips against Stanford, Arizona, ASU, and WSU. I'm going 2-3 here.
I'm not a Deion Hater by any means. I think given time he'll have Colorado near the top of The Big 12. It just won't be this year. 4-8.