UConn v Creighton - Make your bets.

[Deepster]

Well, I don't think you can base your conclusion on one game where we exceeded every prediction model and Vegas by 3 or 4 fold. It's not like you are betting everything every time on one game.

But I also agree there aren't many making money over an extended period of time (years, not weeks). You actually need to be over 55% correct when you figure in the vig. You will lose money at 52-53%.

It's one of the reasons Vegas has enormous elaborate resorts (though I'm pretty sure they make most of their money on slots) and Draft Kings can advertise a billion times a month and not go out of business.

Also, if you are going to bet on such things, it's best to have the most information available and folks who follow UConn closely may have a little advantage over time rather than betting other teams and leagues where the understanding isn't as deep (so to speak).

Good post. I’d argue that any advantage gained by having the information available is at least negated, if not overruled by emotion for the team. No way to ever prove any of that but just my gut.

 

[Mr. French]

Okay. So following this team closely gives us an edge when it comes to betting on their games. Right?

Well, here are all the predictions from this thread and the "Uconn -6.5" thread. I didn't pick and choose, I'm just listing everyone who made a prediction:

Can we agree that the "I follow the team so I will win more than usual betting on them" is hogwash? Not a single person had it pegged. 3 people had them to cover but no one had an easy win and 6 posters had them not covering.

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Again I ask, although it seems my other post got deleted for god knows what reason, why are you so invested in this idea from 1 poster that you get an edge by knowing your team?

He was literally just saying by following a team very closely, you MIGHT know things ab when or why your team would cover, and that knowledge is deeper than for a random team.

The example was when the numbers said we’d cover vs nova but most us felt it would be tighter. No one said “I follow UConn so I can now beat Vegas” you’re just going crazy running with something that wasn’t that serious.

I’ve seen you write “edge” in quotes 200x in a week, take it easy!

 

[Mr. French]

And as I said in another thread, no one here is winning over a 52-53% clip betting on UConn over time. As evidenced by the 6 incorrect vs 3 correct picks in this thread.

Taking 8 different people’s predictions in 1 game does not, in fact, give you evidence that no single person is winning.

 

[Deepster]

Again I ask, although it seems my other post got deleted for god knows what reason, why are you so invested in this idea from 1 poster that you get an edge by knowing your team?

He was literally just saying by following a team very closely, you MIGHT know things ab when or why your team would cover, and that knowledge is deeper than for a random team.

The example was when the numbers said we’d cover vs nova but most us felt it would be tighter. No one said “I follow UConn so I can now beat Vegas” you’re just going crazy running with something that wasn’t that serious.

I’ve seen you write “edge” in quotes 200x in a week, take it easy!

Why do you care? Am I taking up valuable space where we can complain about a blowout win?

 

[Deepster]

Taking 8 different people’s predictions in 1 game does not, in fact, give you evidence that no single person is winning.

Okay. How do you suggest I make my case?

P.S. Edge edge edge edge edge edge edge.

 

[Mr. French]

Why do you care? Am I taking up valuable space where we can complain about a blowout win?

Why do I care? I guess the same reason anyone cares about anything here.

But you've talked incessantly about this and tried to prove this "edge" doesn't exist when it's not that serious. I think it's weird. So do I really care that much? Nah, just pointing out your chasing a bogey man that isn't there.

 

[Deepster]

Why do I care? I guess the same reason anyone cares about anything here.

But you've talked incessantly about this and tried to prove this "edge" doesn't exist when it's not that serious. I think it's weird. So do I really care that much? Nah, just pointing out your chasing a bogey man that isn't there.

Well, maybe I like stats and logic and the science behind sports wagering. Sorry if that annoys you this much. The 350 page thread on pizza must really grind your gears.

 

[Mr. French]

Well, maybe I like stats and logic and the science behind sports wagering. Sorry if that annoys you this much. The 350 page thread on pizza must really grind your gears.

Again I’m not annoyed, I’m questioning why you’re on a quest about proving one poster’s “edge” is faulty. You’re extrapolating off of a small point.

I don’t recall me saying you can’t discuss it and I’ve discussed it with you, it’s been a week of you going off the rails any time the edge is discussed or not discussed.

 

[Deepster]

Again I’m not annoyed, I’m questioning why you’re on a quest about proving one poster’s “edge” is faulty. You’re extrapolating off of a small point.

I don’t recall me saying you can’t discuss it and I’ve discussed it with you, it’s been a week of you going off the rails any time the edge is discussed or not discussed.

So what? How long has HooperScooper gone off on the misspelling of players names?

Are you new here? All this place does is beat meaningless points into the ground.

 

[temery]

As I said earlier, anyone that REALLY knows this team knows that this is when they pull out of their funk.

Always easy to say, after the fact.

 

[navery12]

I don't really feel strongly about UConn fans having an edge or not by knowing their team, but if you think you have an edge over Vegas you certainly do not.

What I do feel strongly about is if your edge about UConn is routinely betting against UConn like a few posters here you are a bad fan

 

[RuffRuff]

 

[Woof]

Always easy to say, after the fact.

I said it before the fact. I think it was post #11. That was before the game.

 

[auror]

I don't really feel strongly about UConn fans having an edge or not by knowing their team, but if you think you have an edge over Vegas you certainly do not.

What I do feel strongly about is if your edge about UConn is routinely betting against UConn like a few posters here you are a bad fan

Why would betting against UConn make you a bad fan?

Zero impact on anything unless you're into mysticism.

 

[navery12]

Why would betting against UConn make you a bad fan?

Zero impact on anything unless you're into mysticism.

Not because it affects the outcome, but if there is even a small piece of you that is happy with a UConn loss or sad with a UConn win because it allowed you to make money I think that makes you a bad fan. Maybe that is a hot take

 

[Ewekon]

We talked this week about you guys feeling more confident betting on UConn because you have a better "feel" for them over other teams.

The line right now is UConn -6.5.

If you think you have an edge because you follow the team, what's your bet?

In the poll that was posted, I chose easy win or whatever it was. Matter of record.

 

[gsmooth]

Why would betting against UConn make you a bad fan?

Zero impact on anything unless you're into mysticism.

Your post is interesting FWIW. I don't think betting against UConn makes you a bad fan. Me personally, I don't bet on UConn games at all because I just want to enjoy as "a pure fan" so to speak. If I bet on UConn to cover the Vegas line and they don't I don't want to harbor anger towards the team or a particular player for missing FTs or making any kind of mistake that cost me money. Similarly, I won't bet against UConn either because I don't want to be rooting against UConn, for example to miss a FT(s) or for their challenge call to be unsuccessful or something like that, basically rooting for any events or particular plays or actions within the game to go against UConn.

If I were to bet on UConn games, I would have bet Providence +16.5 at Gampel last Tuesday-that was easy money. But I also made the trip from Boston to Storrs to watch that game and to reiterate, I am not ever going to put myself in a position where I am rooting for UConn to be unsuccessful in any situation. LIkewise last year, after UConn lost the first 2 games in Maui, the Dayton +7.5 for the 7th place game was easy money. I was in Maui for all 3 games and I was going to make sure I was rooting loudly for UConn.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

Okay. So following this team closely gives us an edge when it comes to betting on their games. Right?

Well, here are all the predictions from this thread and the "Uconn -6.5" thread. I didn't pick and choose, I'm just listing everyone who made a prediction:

Can we agree that the "I follow the team so I will win more than usual betting on them" is hogwash? Not a single person had it pegged. 3 people had them to cover but no one had an easy win and 6 posters had them not covering.

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I didn’t realize you were on some weird journey to prove the “edge” people are wrong. If so, I wouldn’t have bothered posting.

You left out that I also said I wouldn’t bet this game.

 

[Deepster]

I didn’t realize you were on some weird journey to prove the “edge” people are wrong. If so, I wouldn’t have bothered posting.

You left out that I also said I wouldn’t bet this game.

Be careful using the word edge too much. The other poster above gets a rage bone from it.