UConn proving they are a top 4 team

[Tonyc]

Well last nite Kansas with a record of 8/7 and 1/3 in conference beat Baylor ranked #4 in the polls by 21. UConn has been blowing opponents out and is dropped from 12 to 13 in the polls. UConn has beat 5 ranked teams and no other team has. I dont know what Geno said to UConn but it is apparently he has created competition amongst the players and they appear to be fighting for playtime and competing against each other. With the emergence of Nika KK Shade and Q and now Amari and Ines we can go deep into our bench and give Paige and Aaliyah the rest they deserve. We can do that without worrying about we we loose any scoring.

Something we were lacking early on was experience. Now we appear to be playing with confidence on both sides of the ball. There is no hesitation, and we are looking for our shot. We still need some fine tuning however we are no longer depending on Paige and Aaliyah to score. We may when we play SC and ND but somehow I feel in the next few weeks we will be playing better and at another level. With the emergence last night of Ines and Amari Geno should have confidence in giving them more minutes, Nika has become a confident shooter and you cant leave her open anymore. UConn appears to have hit their stride. This is no longer the team we saw early on. Not only because of the injuries but because the intensity, energy, confidence and just knowing how to play the game has improved so much they are playing crazy good. They are playing as a unit.

I look at the scores of top teams and dont see them consistently blowing out opponents. Alot of top teams just squeaking by non ranked teams. I see UConn with 3 early season losses against top teams when UConn was finding themselves, a direct result of all the injuries. I can only imagine what UConn would do to those teams now if we were to play them again. Since UConn has gone to their press and gone deep into their bench this team is exploding with confidence. I dont see any fear in any players eyes. What I do see is a team driven by energy and playing defense.

Watching Nika knock down shots the past couple of games, and all our guards running the break and now seeing Ines and Amari playing at a different level well it will pay big dividends down the road. We have a pesty St Johns then Seton Hall and DePaul before we go to Marquette who will be looking for revenge then ND at home. We have time to work on things and improve again. With their lack of height I expect our bigs to have an advantage and with a big lead I wanna see Amari at 6'6 to show us more of what she can do.

UConn is surprising alot of team with their talent. First KK and Shade, now Nika knocking down treys and I looking for another level in Ines and Amari. We all know we lack height and if Amari continues to get it, she will become more confident and that would be a huge addition to what we've been missing

With all that said. I think many of us can see this UConn team is not playing like a 13th ranked team in the polls. This UConn team is blossoming into a top 4 team. We are growing as individuals and growing as a team. St Johns wont be a push over. We will have to work for it and stay out of foul trouble. Genos concerns last night against Providence are legit concerns. He will fix them for St Johns on Saturday. I can feel the excitement.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Great post @Tonyc

I am happy to see how the Team is playing. The incredible pride they have in their game and the Teamwork.
I also relish the idea that the National Championship is won On The Court.

GO UCONN

 

[Topsail]

I agree with a lot of what you stated but it was an easy opponent. I want to see us blow out Notre Dame and keep it close against SC before pronouncing us a top 4 team . We have to shoot a high percentage, limit TOs and fouls to compensate for our weakness in rebounding against the better teams. I dont see Amari getting more than a few minutes a game unless we are up 40 . Her defense is just not there.

 

[sun]

Geno is finding a way to adjust to Aubrey being MIA.
Amari looked confident on the floor, making passes, some BB moves & communicating with teammates.
Her, Ice & Ines all showed some spunk.
Some folks said that Amari's ship had sailed but IMO she was more like a submarine surfacing last night.

 

[Cuango]

Great post again from Tonyc. I would only quibble with the Amari enthusiasm. She needs to put together several (5 or 6) games where she actually shows some effort and understanding before we start talking about her “getting it”. She’s had these “teases“ before and they have never gone anywhere.
Ines on the other hand, I am somewhat bullish on. I think she is certainly capable of contributing 10-15 minutes (at least) of solid guard play which will allow Geno to rest more starters as the season progresses.

 

[veryolddog]

I always appreciate your posts, Tony, especially knowing how much thought that you put into each one.

I have a different take on this. UConn, being in the Big East is right where it belongs and has the kind of competition that it requires. The confidence comes because of winning and experience that the young players are getting. Considering the injuries that the Team has had and mix of players with the lack of height, the Team is doing very well and will continue to so within the Big East.
I do not remember the schedule except that South Carolina remains. Maybe that is a real test before the NCAA Tournement.

UConn win now and looks good and wins by a lot. But, consider who they are playing. I like them in the Big East because I like watching them win, but that does not make them a team in the top 5. I think that this should be considered when assessing their place in the ranking.

 

[Rowdy831]

They are looking better for sure but until they play a team they have match up issues with you won't really know. In my opinion the first game where they have match up issues will be ND and I expect them to struggle with a team they should dominate. There is no way you can over come the lack of height with Geno's current rotation.

Geno has made the decision to be the best really small team in the country. That is going to win every game in a very weak Big East Conference but won't work against taller teams. Problem is they don't have a lot of options for taller lines and we know from experience Geno is going to live and die by the 7 he is playing.

To me they are a top 8 team as they are and could move up but the truth won't be out there until ND. If they dominate ND and hold their own on the boards I will change my thinking but right now the bad competition they are playing isn't conclusive to me.

 

[ERWUC65]

Great overview as usual from Tonyc. Not sure about Amari just yet, think we will get to that dynamic big duo with Ice sooner. Very impressed with Ines and hope she can become that spot reliever at guard. Suprised by the lack of comments on Q. I guess she is the only freshman still acting like a freshman. Her shot selection and subsequent execution is poor to awful, yet she has the length and speed to be that fill in for Aubrey. Seems like a lot of coaching needed here. I think St. Johns will be a test, expect to see Paige more involved in this one. Go Huskies!

 

[Topdawg]

I like the enthusiasm in the opening post. The team is playing well and I hope they keep getting better.

For this team to become a top 4 team, there is still some work to be done. I would like to see aggressive shooting. 30 treys at 33% is 30 points. 40 2s at 50% is 40 points. So 70 attempts plus about 15 free throws made should get us to 85 points. If we can do that consistently, that is a start.

Then we have to limit the opposing team’s possessions. Keeping turnovers low is a start. Our rebounding will have to get better.

All doable! We have until March to work at it.

 

[Next 12]

Here comes the It's possible Guy. Geno always said we practice so hard because when we are in the game it won't get any harder, we are ready.The BE IS the right place for Uconn and our Freshman because they are building up an INNER confidence that they are GOOD and fear nobody. That will carry into the ND game and by February ready for SC, playing at the top of their game.This team ,because they came together so fast and has accomplished so much is a team of Destiny that has a lot to accomplish the rest of the year. Uconn is ready to face the BIG BOYS come Feb and March. GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[Next 12]

Here comes the It's possible Guy. Geno always said we practice so hard because when we are in the game it won't get any harder, we are ready.The BE IS the right place for Uconn and our Freshman because they are building up an INNER confidence that they are GOOD and fear nobody. That will carry into the ND game and by February ready for SC, playing at the top of their game.This team ,because they came together so fast and has accomplished so much is a team of Destiny that has a lot to accomplish the rest of the year. Uconn is ready to face the BIG BOYS come Feb and March. GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!

I forgot to add our fantastic DEFENSE!!! Winning like Uconn is so lopsided is addictive to the team and are trying to up the disparity even higher. High scoring and choking defense ALWAYS win games! GO FRESHMEN!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

I'm with you, @Tonyc, and also have some reservations. I don't know what to make of the BE conference. Aside from Marquette, Creighton, SJU and Villanova, these are essentially tune-up games. These games are also exactly what the team needs right now. So, the conference record may not be all that useful in making comparisons, though it will be extremely useful in building the confidence of UConn's freshmen in decisive ways.

Other than the Pac12, the rest of the Power5 isn't a whole lot better -- don't get me wrong, they are better, just not lightyears better. There are uncompetitive cellar dwellers in each of them. There's also a few really good "top teams" in each of them, and there's only UConn in the Big East to fit that description. And the good teams in the Big East would be merely middle of the pack in the Power5. For example, a "middle of the pack" Kansas beating Baylor is like Marquette or Villanova beating UConn -- it would be an upset, but it's easy to imagine how it could happen. Contrast this with the Pac12 pitting UCLA Stanford Colorado Utah and USCw against one another. There's nothing comparable to that in the Big East.

UConn is now a #4 in NET and that's what really matters. But that #4 is not completely convincing to me, mainly because the NET itself gains in effectiveness as a ranking tool as the season wears on. This is clear enough merely by observing that UCLA is ranked lower than UConn, which doesn't really pass the eyeball test. We have that ranking because of SoS considerations up to now. But that difference will fade in February as the top teams in the Power5 begin to face each other. The losers in those matchups will fall in NET, and the winners will rise. I fully expect UCLA, Iowa and Utah (or some other selection of "top teams") will push UConn lower, perhaps to #8 or thereabouts, even if we win out (and keep the SC game close).

I take as my object lesson in this the fate of tOSU last season. They played a style that we are now returning to -- a small, 4-out or 5-out lineup that out-hustles on the press and shoots well from the perimeter. And that style of game, implemented about as well as Kevin McGuff could have hoped, carried them to the Elite Eight and no further. As soon as they encountered a team with a dominant front court and a PG at the top of her game, their run ended. Of course, a couple of surprising upsets could create an easier path for UConn through the tournament this time (as it did for LSU last season) but I don't count on this. I expect UConn to make it to the Sweet Sixteen and maybe even the Elite Eight. But barring extreme good fortune, I don't see them going further. This is also why a NET ranking around #8 seems about right to me.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I'm with you, @Tonyc, and also have some reservations. I don't know what to make of the BE conference. Aside from Marquette, Creighton, SJU and Villanova, these are essentially tune-up games. These games are also exactly what the team needs right now. So, the conference record may not be all that useful in making comparisons, though it will be extremely useful in building the confidence of UConn's freshmen in decisive ways.

Other than the Pac12, the rest of the Power5 isn't a whole lot better -- don't get me wrong, they are better, just not lightyears better. There are uncompetitive cellar dwellers in each of them. There's also a few really good "top teams" in each of them, and there's only UConn in the Big East to fit that description. And the good teams in the Big East would be merely middle of the pack in the Power5. For example, a "middle of the pack" Kansas beating Baylor is like Marquette or Villanova beating UConn -- it would be an upset, but it's easy to imagine how it could happen.

UConn is now a #4 in NET and that's what really matters. But that #4 is not completely convincing to me, mainly because the NET itself gains in effectiveness as a ranking tool as the season wears on. This is clear enough merely by observing that UCLA is ranked lower than UConn, which doesn't really pass the eyeball test. We have that ranking because of SoS considerations up to now. But that difference will fade in February as the top teams in the Power5 begin to face each other. The losers in those matchups will fall in NET, and the winners will rise. I fully expect UCLA, Iowa and Utah (or some other selection of "top teams") will push UConn lower, perhaps to #8 or thereabouts, even if we win out (and keep the SC game close).

I take as my object lesson in this the fate of tOSU last season. They played a style that we are now returning to -- a small, 4-out or 5-out lineup that out-hustles on the press and shoots well from the perimeter. And that style of game, implemented about as well as Kevin McGuff could have hoped, carried them to the Elite Eight and no further. As soon as they encountered a team with a dominant front court and a PG at the top of her game, their run ended. Of course, a couple of surprising upsets could create an easier path for UConn through the tournament this time (as it did for LSU last season) but I don't count on this. I expect UConn to make it to the Sweet Sixteen and maybe even the Elite Eight. But barring extreme good fortune, I don't see them going further. This is also why a NET ranking around #8 seems about right to me.

I actually don't think UConns NET will fall that much as the season goes one because MOV is a pretty big factor that would outweigh the other teams rising SOS than other tools. Plus UConns biggest SOS boon hasn't even happened yet. Last year they ended the regular season with 2nd in NET despite 5 losses and LSU, who had an awful OOC SOS, finished 3rd. If they win out outside of South Carolina, I'd imagine their NET would continue to rise as other teams rack of loses and closer wins. But we'll see. If they end the regular season with 4 losses, I'd imagine they'd be top 4 at a minimum.

 

[Bone Dog]

I actually don't think UConns NET will fall that much as the season goes one because MOV is a pretty big factor that would outweigh the other teams rising SOS than other tools. Plus UConns biggest SOS boon hasn't even happened yet. Last year they ended the regular season with 2nd in NET despite 5 losses and LSU, who had an awful OOC SOS, finished 3rd. If they win out outside of South Carolina, I'd imagine their NET would continue to rise as other teams rack of loses and closer wins. But we'll see. If they end the regular season with 4 losses, I'd imagine they'd be top 4 at a minimum.

You may have a point.

I haven't gamed out the possible results in the Pac12, for example. If UCLA wins out and Stanford takes a loss to them, that could lift UCLA and push Stanford below #4, especially if the MoV is wide. One of them has to take a loss in that game, and it would also turn on whether either of them takes any other losses in conference.

I'm thinking something similar in the SEC. I assume LSU is going to take a loss to SC, but will it be a blowout or can LSU keep it close? I don't see any other obvious losses for LSU in conference. And they could take a second loss to SC in the conference tournament.

As for us winning out, clearly a lot rides on the ND game. It's a home game, so that puts even a little more pressure on it. I hadn't anticipated this game looming so large in the schedule three months ago.

 

[Charliebball]

Sadly, the loss of Aubrey is such a major blow that I kam concerned UConn will be able to overcome its lack of size and athleticism up front against teams like South Carolina, UCLA, Stanford and LSU among others........the first big test of my hypothesis is coming up when UConn takes on Notre Dame which has a pretty big front court..........believe me, I'd love to be proven wrong......

 

[hoopsnloops32]

You may have a point.

I haven't gamed out the possible results in the Pac12, for example. If UCLA wins out and Stanford takes a loss to them, that could lift UCLA and push Stanford below #4, especially if the MoV is wide. One of them has to take a loss in that game, and it would also turn on whether either of them takes any other losses in conference.

I'm thinking something similar in the SEC. I assume LSU is going to take a loss to SC, but will it be a blowout or can LSU keep it close? I don't see any other obvious losses for LSU in conference. And they could take a second loss to SC in the conference tournament.

As for us winning out, clearly a lot rides on the ND game. It's a home game, so that puts even a little more pressure on it. I hadn't anticipated this game looming so large in the schedule three months ago.

Really? The Notre Dame game was the most important game on the schedule to me when it came out. They aren't as good as I had hoped with all the injuries (same as us) but to me that game has always been a must win. I do think UNC and Louisiville will both finish above them in the ACC this year so I'm not sure it will be a signature win, but I do think we need to avoid a "bad" loss.

I'm not sure we will be able to go undefeated in the Big East this year though either way. It's only mid January and we are down to a 7 man rotation. A lot can happen and I expect some players to go into shooting slumps and have mental blocks over the course of the next two months, ideally in a way that allows everyone top put it together for March at the same time. We shall see though, I'm not too worried about seeding this year as long as we can secure a top 4 seed and end up in Albany. Its more about getting favorable matchups and less about strength of the opponent with this team.

 

[Bone Dog]

Really? The Notre Dame game was the most important game on the schedule to me when it came out. They aren't as good as I had hoped with all the injuries (same as us) but to me that game has always been a must win. I do think UNC and Louisiville will both finish above them in the ACC this year so I'm not sure it will be a signature win, but I do think we need to avoid a "bad" loss.

I'm not sure we will be able to go undefeated in the Big East this year though either way. It's only mid January and we are down to a 7 man rotation. A lot can happen and I expect some players to go into shooting slumps and have mental blocks over the course of the next two months, ideally in a way that allows everyone top put it together for March at the same time. We shall see though, I'm not too worried about seeding this year as long as we can secure a top 4 seed and end up in Albany. Its more about getting favorable matchups and less about strength of the opponent with this team.

Yeah, I may have overlooked ND in my early season thinking. Then once it became clear we wouldn't have Caroline, Ayanna or Aubrey, it started to loom much larger for me. As for the BE, I'm still more or less confident that we'll sweep it. But I've been wrong before.

As for my thinking about ND last fall, it went more or less like this:

When Miles went down last spring, I assumed it was for the year. That combined with the loss of Ebo and Mabry to graduation cost them more than might have first appeared. Without Dorka in the lineup, Ebo in particular posed a significant challenge to UConn because she was big, strong and practically immoveable, and this seemed to negate Aubrey's ability to slash -- I think she may even have bounced off Ebo once or twice in last season's game -- as well as freeing up Westbeld to have a big game (17 pts on 6-11 shooting, 3-5 from 3, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks. And it didn't help not to have Dorka. Ebo's slowness against other opponents looked like a liability, but against us it turned out to be an asset. Of course, it practically crushed the team's spirits too when Azzi went out (I'm still pissed at Bransford for shoving Aaliyah into her knee) and we were unable to recover from an early deficit.

This season, I expected with the return of Paige Azzi Nika Aubrey Ayanna Caroline Aaliyah and the addition of Ice that we'd have the advantage in the front court and the backcourt. Watson and Marshall would not provide Westbeld the support to have the same sort of game she'd had the previous season. Now injuries have messed with that expectation a bit, and the emergence of Hidalgo mitigates the loss of Miles. This game now looks to be much more competitive than I thought in the fall. I don't expect a blowout by any means and it may come down to the wire in either direction.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Yeah, I may have overlooked ND in my early season thinking. Then once it became clear we wouldn't have Caroline, Ayanna or Aubrey, it started to loom much larger for me. As for the BE, I'm still more or less confident that we'll sweep it. But I've been wrong before.

As for my thinking about ND last fall, it went more or less like this:

When Miles went down last spring, I assumed it was for the year. That combined with the loss of Ebo and Mabry to graduation cost them more than might have first appeared. Without Dorka in the lineup, Ebo in particular posed a significant challenge to UConn because she was big, strong and practically immoveable, and this seemed to negate Aubrey's ability to slash -- I think she may even have bounced off Ebo once or twice in last season's game -- as well as freeing up Westbeld to have a big game (17 pts on 6-11 shooting, 3-5 from 3, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks. And it didn't help not to have Dorka. Ebo's slowness against other opponents looked like a liability, but against us it turned out to be an asset. Of course, it practically crushed the team's spirits too when Azzi went out (I'm still pissed at Bransford for shoving Aaliyah into her knee) and we were unable to recover from an early deficit.

This season, I expected with the return of Paige Azzi Nika Aubrey Ayanna Caroline Aaliyah and the addition of Ice that we'd have the advantage in the front court and the backcourt. Watson and Marshall would not provide Westbeld the support to have the same sort of game she'd had the previous season. Now injuries have messed with that expectation a bit, and the emergence of Hidalgo mitigates the loss of Miles. This game now looks to be much more competitive than I thought in the fall. I don't expect a blowout by any means and it may come down to the wire in either direction.

I thought they'd get Miles back by January and the two headed backcourt of Miles and Hidalgo seemed to be something that could neutralize our backcourt of Azzi and Paige with speed. Clearly that won't be the case because of injuries. We'll see how Notre Dame looks in a couple of weeks but right now they aren't a top 25 team. With Citron and Westbeld back in the line up together that might change, I doubt Prosper is back by then. Notre Dame seams like a good match up for us, they have size but its not particularly skilled size and outside of Hidalgo, speeding most of those players up on the offensive end seems like a good defensive strategy. We'll see though. It will be physical so we'll have to be prepared for that and avoid fouls.

After the last few games against them all I really want to do is escape that game with no serious or season ending injuries or injuries at all really. I'd rather lose by 20 and keep the team healthy tbh.

 

[Tonyc]

We have beaten 5 top teams and have 5 top teams left on our schedule and have at least 4 left plus the BE tourney. We beat

UConn 76 UNC 64
UConn 85 Lville 62
UConn 95 Marq 64
UConn 94 Creig 50

We have games left with Marq Creighton ND and SC. The Big East may be weaker then some other conferences but those top teams in other conferences played tuned up with teams much weaker early on and they still have weak team in their conference they should beat. Some of the teams they played early on Ive hardly heard of.

An injured ridden UConn team lost to UCLA NC State and Texas ( a game where UConn made a great comeback). That was a different team then we are now. The BE does have some weak teams as do most conferences however UConn blows them out and does not struggle against them like Baylor loosing to Kansas by 21. Now we have a chance to mold our new team if you will because we now have a chance to play teams lesser then the top teams we played early while still having to play 4 top teams.

I have alot of hope in Amari and hoping last nite was not a fluke. I hope she continues to emerge as a good backup. That we will wait to see.

 

[MooseJaw]

Just curious Tony, who would you drop off the current top 4 and insert our Huskies? I know that since our team has adapted to the 4 guard system, we have looked much better and defiantly dangerous. We probably would have won a couple of the games we lost and been much higher in the rankings. Still curious as stated above, who drops down and why?

 

[Bone Dog]

Just curious Tony, who would you drop off the current top 4 and insert our Huskies? I know that since our team has adapted to the 4 guard system, we have looked much better and defiantly dangerous. We probably would have won a couple of the games we lost and been much higher in the rankings. Still curious as stated above, who drops down and why?

In terms of NET rankings, no teams have to be dropped since UConn is already #4.

 

[HopJim]

They are looking better for sure but until they play a team they have match up issues with you won't really know. In my opinion the first game where they have match up issues will be ND and I expect them to struggle with a team they should dominate. There is no way you can over come the lack of height with Geno's current rotation.

Geno has made the decision to be the best really small team in the country. That is going to win every game in a very weak Big East Conference but won't work against taller teams. Problem is they don't have a lot of options for taller lines and we know from experience Geno is going to live and die by the 7 he is playing.

To me they are a top 8 team as they are and could move up but the truth won't be out there until ND. If they dominate ND and hold their own on the boards I will change my thinking but right now the bad competition they are playing isn't conclusive to me.

Agree that the ND game will be interesting. Key to me for remainder of schedule is for Nika and Edwards to stop making 1-2 careless/needless fouls per game. Edwards in particular will likely be one of the main points of focus in all the big games. We need her to play maximum minutes.

 

[cohenzone]

Enthusiasm is great, but I’m not quite ready to think Amari or Ines have “emerged” based on some nice minutes in a game that was over in the first 8 minutes. Ines at least at times has shown something. It would be great if they earn enough trust to be used in more pressure situations. We shall see.

Ice is the player whose light looks like it’s going on when needed which to me is big deal for a freshman who is coming off an injury year with no game memory to rely on.

 

[Ozimoto]

ND has Citron and Westbeld back. After the 50 point drubbing of BC last night the game with them looks like it won't be a cake walk.