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Message: [QUOTE="ctchamps, post: 3526198, member: 37"] It's a statistic if it's one of them or theirs. It's a tragedy if it's one of us or ours. I'm not sure a vaccine is the only saving grace for all of us. Natural immunity from getting the disease would be just as beneficial. Of course we would have to know what percentage of the population has antibodies and how long those antibodies confer immunity. That is why it's imperative to find reliable serological tests and mass test. Until we have that information or a vaccination the best course of action from a medical standpoint is social isolation. Germany is now past the mitigation phase of the pandemic and now is in the containment phase. South Korea was even more prepared and has always been in the containment phase. These countries can relax confinement. They will certainly have reoccurrences of the disease but they have the systems in place to minimize the impacts of those reoccurrences. The United States is at the other end of the spectrum. We probably have had one of the worst responses to the disease of any developed wealthy country. Thank goodness for the Brits. We are still in the mitigation phase, aren't even close to having adequate testing and haven't begun a coordinated containment strategy never mind begun to develop resources for containment. We already have surpassed the death estimates of all but two influenza seasons in the past decade. Some states like NY and NJ probably have had more penetration of the disease and therefore likely more natural immunity than others. But I would be surprised if that penetration rate was above 20%. It's a guess of course but do the math for fatality numbers and hospitalizations if that assumption is close. We are flicged any way you look at things. We have no choice but to open things up prematurely. It won't be long before the numbers flip with Americans insisting on this. I just think the economy arguers should factor in the economic health costs in totaling economic numbers. They certainly will offset to a substantial degree the economic benefits. From a humanitarian side there is no argument. Anybody want to guess what our health care workers will do if this pandemic stays plateaued or spikes again in a short amount of time. What will be the mortality numbers if a lot of them leave? What will be the response of Americans in that situation? [/QUOTE]

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