UConn / Penn State analysis

[doggydaddy]

Overview - UConn comes into this game a little bruised, both physically and mentally. The bloom is off the rose and UConn women are human. Lewis might not be available but everyone else is healthy. Maryland showed that if the refs let them play, UConn can be taken out of their game. Now, will they learn from this? We will find out. And maybe against Penn State. They start 6'4,6'3 and 6'2 across the front line. But they are not nearly as physical as Maryland. In the cozy confines of Gampel, I would expect the game to be called a little tighter. Penn State comes in after a hammering of FDU. But they lost to a decent but not great Miami team in the game before that.

(Stats listed in PPG, RPG, and APG order)

PG - Bria Hartley JR. (5'10", 7.4, 2.0, 3.4) vs Alex Bentley SR (5'7",12.3, 3.7, 4.9)

Until Hartley shows any differently, you can't use last years Hartley as something to expect from her performance. She is still rounding into form. Bentley is a terrific PG and a real pain on the defensive end. She has 30 steals. Compare that to Fair who has 18.

Even

SG - Kelly Faris SR (5'11", 9.7, 3.7, 4.7) vs Maggie Lucas JR (5'9", 21.4, 4.7, 2.6)

Faris comes into this game on a roll. Close to a quadruple double against Maryland, she is still showing that she is a complete player, both offensively and defensively. Lucas is as good a spot up shooter in women's college basketball. But Faris is the anti-Lucas. Last year she was 4-16 and 3-11 (3's) against UConn and Faris. Expect more of the same.

Advantage UConn

C - Stephanie Dolson JR (6'5", 13.1, 6.3, 3.7) vs Nicki Greene SR (6'4", 8.6, 8.1, .6)

Dolson had another solid game against Maryland. She has been so consistant this year. Greene is a solid presence in the post. But she doesn't get off the ground quickly. If Dolson can get inside post position, she should be able to take advantage of that. Green is not a big offensive threat so Dolson should be able to help off the ball.

Advantage UConn

PF - Breanna Stewart FR (6'4", 16.3, 6.4, 1.1) vs Mia Nickson SR (6'2", 9.0, 6.3, 1.2)

I'm interested to see how Stewart bounces back from a tough game. She really was pushed around. And now here comes Nickson. She scored 19 points on 8/12 shooting in last years matchup. But Stewart is a different animal here. Geno says that Stewart is a quick learner and one of the most competative players he knows. Both traits will be tested here.

Advantage UConn

SF - Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis SO (6', 14.7, 4.7, 2.8) vs Arial Edwards JR (6'3" 9.0, 4.3, .7)

Hopefully Lewis will be 100%. Geno said that he is hopeful she will play, so I will go with that. Lewis will come off screens and Edwards will be gasping for breath. Not a good matchup for her. Not a big offensive threat, Lewis is strong enough to keep Edwards out of the paint and she is not a big outside threat
Advantage UConn


Bench - Penn State (Taylor, Waldner, East, Studevent, Agee) vs UConn (Doty, Jefferson, Stokes, Tuck, Banks, Buck )

There is a huge talent gap between the two benches. You will see the Penn State starters get a ton of minutes.

Advantage UConn

Coaching - Geno vs Coquese Washington

For those who don't remember Washington was on the Notre Dame 2001 NCAA Championship team. Last year, she was Big 10 coach of the year. She has done a fabulous job, in my opinion. But she is no Geno. Heck, who is?

Advantage UConn

Summary - Just a little more than 8 months ago, Uconn handled Penn State fairly easily. With both teams returning 4 starters, it might be Stewart that makes a big difference. This year, Penn State struggles with TO's and UConn is not the team you want to see if that is the case. After a tough game against Maryland, I can see a very motivated UConn team with a very loud Gampel crowd.


Uconn by 35+ (Yeah, I know, same as Maryland)

 

[MilfordHusky]

Nice work. After the Maryland game, I'm going low on the margin: UConn by 70-52.

 

[speedoo]

Thanks DD. IIRC, last year Geno took the heat off early with a big lead, and as a result, Lucas hit some shots late when Kelly was not guarding her. But I am not sure about that. I am sure that Lucas will have great difficulty when. Kelly is guarding her.

 

[OneTrickPony]

This game will be an excellent gauge for Bria...great sign if she comes out on top in this match up...and for Breanna...

 

[Icebear]

Penn State is another team with good size.

 

[doggydaddy]

Penn State is another team with good size.

"They start 6'4,6'3 and 6'2 across the front line."

Yep

 

[Phil]

Thanks for the write-up.

 

[Kibitzer]

Penn State is another team with good size.

". . . and the bigger they are the harder they fall."

 

[Icebear]

". . . and the bigger they are the harder they fall."

That's what I expect but it will be another good opportunity for our bigs to gain experience. The PSU bigs are foul happy, especially, Greene 6'4". Agee 6'6" is a raw freshman from CA who is slowly improving. Waldman 6'5", Edwards 6'3", East 6'3", Wolff 6'2" and Nickson 6'2" 7 players 6'2" and up will all get minutes if Washington follows her early patterns this year. Every player on the team is averaging 10+ minutes a game. It is very possible that PSU will run a 3 guard offense for stretches during the game. Bentley, Lucas and Dara Taylor started the last game. Taylor starting in place of Ariel Edwards who started the previous 6 games. Lucas is the only Nittany Lion averaging over 30 minutes per game.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Jeff Sagarin had UConn over MD by 18. The margin was 15. He has UConn over Penn St by 23.

A coupe of things to consider -
What are the chances of Hartley going 1-7 again?

The physicality of the MD game wasn't the cause of all the missed bunnies. UConn had a crappy shooting night. It happens.







I noticed that I mispelled couple. I left it intentionally just to irritate the grammar police.

 

[doggydaddy]

That's what I expect but it will be another good opportunity for our bigs to gain experience. The PSU bigs are foul happy, especially, Greene 6'4". Agee 6'6" is a raw freshman from CA who is slowly improving. Waldman 6'5", Edwards 6'3", East 6'3", Wolff 6'2" and Nickson 6'2" 7 players 6'2" and up will all get minutes if Washington follows her early patterns this year. Every player on the team is averaging 10+ minutes a game. It is very possible that PSU will run a 3 guard offense for stretches during the game. Bentley, Lucas and Dara Taylor started the last game. Taylor starting in place of Ariel Edwards who started the previous 6 games. Lucas is the only Nittany Lion averaging over 30 minutes per game.

You have to look at the competative games to see what they will do against UConn. They played 8 players against Miami. It will be similar against UConn.

Most of those tall players you mentioned won't get more than a couple of minutes if they get off the bench at all.

 

[meyers7]

Looks like they are a pretty good offensive rebounding team. Specifically Nickson and Greene. (123 vs 89 - teamwise). UCONN bigs will have to work to keep them off the Offensive boards.

They don't shoot as well as UCONN. (43% vs 55%) and (38% vs 43% on 3's). Lucas looks to be their only major 3 pt threat. She has taken half of their 3 ptrs and is shooting 56%. The rest of the team is shooting 20%. Shut her down and that pretty much takes their 3 pt game out of the picture. Being that's really our only Achilles heel now, looks good for UCONN. Nobody's going to score a lot inside on UCONN. Opponents are shooting better from 3pt than FGs against UCONN (35% vs 29%).

I'm thinking UCONN wins this one. Around +20.

 

[doggydaddy]

Looks like they are a pretty good offensive rebounding team. Specifically Nickson and Greene. (123 vs 89 - teamwise). UCONN bigs will have to work to keep them off the Offensive boards.

They don't shoot as well as UCONN. (43% vs 55%) and (38% vs 43% on 3's). Lucas looks to be their only major 3 pt threat. She has taken half of their 3 ptrs and is shooting 56%. The rest of the team is shooting 20%. Shut her down and that pretty much takes their 3 pt game out of the picture. Being that's really our only Achilles heel now, looks good for UCONN. Nobody's going to score a lot inside on UCONN. Opponents are shooting better from 3pt than FGs against UCONN (35% vs 29%).

I'm thinking UCONN wins this one. Around +20.

Thanks Meyers. Always appreciate you adding more detail.

 

[meyers7]

Thanks Meyers. Always appreciate you adding more detail.

It's almost like we're on the same team.

 

[Icebear]

You have to look at the competative games to see what they will do against UConn. They played 8 players against Miami. It will be similar against UConn.

Most of those tall players you mentioned won't get more than a couple of minutes if they get off the bench at all.

You have to look at the competative games to see what they will do against UConn. They played 8 players against Miami. It will be similar against UConn.

Most of those tall players you mentioned won't get more than a couple of minutes if they get off the bench at all.

I understandnd that DD but watching them I, also, know that CW is unpredictable as to who she will use depending upon opponents. I agree that most of the bigs will not see many minutes. Starting the three guards was a return to last most successful line up with Taylor replacing Gray as the third guard. UConn By 20-30+. I expect that Geno will put Kelly on Maggie but that is a waste of Kelly's talent let Bria, Brianna, and CD take care of her.

 

[doggydaddy]

I understandnd that DD but watching them I, also, know that CW is unpredictable as to who she will use depending upon opponents. I agree that most of the bigs will not see many minutes. Starting the three guards was a return to last most successful line up with Taylor replacing Gray as the third guard. UConn By 20-30+. I expect that Geno will put Kelly on Maggie but that is a waste of Kelly's talent let Bria, Brianna, and CD take care of her.

Glad you agree with me.

 

[Icebear]

Glad you agree with me.

I never did disagree.

 

[DishNSwish]

Talked to Coach Quese yesterday; she will be on both the Dishin & Swishin podcast and the *NEW* Dishin & Swishin - Philly Style with Mel Greenberg and I airing tomorrow.

Said Greene has to stay on the floor longer than 20 minutes, Taylor will continue to start as they love the speed she brings to the game.

Bet Maryland wishes they still had her right now with all their guard injuries.

 

[ChicagoGG]

I understandnd that DD but watching them I, also, know that CW is unpredictable as to who she will use depending upon opponents. I agree that most of the bigs will not see many minutes. Starting the three guards was a return to last most successful line up with Taylor replacing Gray as the third guard. UConn By 20-30+. I expect that Geno will put Kelly on Maggie but that is a waste of Kelly's talent let Bria, Brianna, and CD take care of her.

Amen, Padre, Amen!

 

[Phil]

A coupe of things to consider -





I noticed that I mispelled couple. I left it intentionally just to irritate the grammar police.

I was all excited because I thought you were planning a coup, but alas...

 

[chrissaran]

Overview - UConn comes into this game a little bruised, both physically and mentally. The bloom is off the rose and UConn women are human. Lewis might not be available but everyone else is healthy. Maryland showed that if the refs let them play, UConn can be taken out of their game. Now, will they learn from this? We will find out. And maybe against Penn State. They start 6'4,6'3 and 6'2 across the front line. But they are not nearly as physical as Maryland. In the cozy confines of Gampel, I would expect the game to be called a little tighter. Penn State comes in after a hammering of FDU. But they lost to a decent but not great Miami team in the game before that.

(Stats listed in PPG, RPG, and APG order)

PG - Bria Hartley JR. (5'10", 7.4, 2.0, 3.4) vs Alex Bentley SR (5'7",12.3, 3.7, 4.9)

Until Hartley shows any differently, you can't use last years Hartley as something to expect from her performance. She is still rounding into form. Bentley is a terrific PG and a real pain on the defensive end. She has 30 steals. Compare that to Fair who has 18.

Even

SG - Kelly Faris SR (5'11", 9.7, 3.7, 4.7) vs Maggie Lucas JR (5'9", 21.4, 4.7, 2.6)

Faris comes into this game on a roll. Close to a quadruple double against Maryland, she is still showing that she is a complete player, both offensively and defensively. Lucas is as good a spot up shooter in women's college basketball. But Faris is the anti-Lucas. Last year she was 4-16 and 3-11 (3's) against UConn and Faris. Expect more of the same.

Advantage UConn

C - Stephanie Dolson JR (6'5", 13.1, 6.3, 3.7) vs Nicki Greene SR (6'4", 8.6, 8.1, .6)

Dolson had another solid game against Maryland. She has been so consistant this year. Greene is a solid presence in the post. But she doesn't get off the ground quickly. If Dolson can get inside post position, she should be able to take advantage of that. Green is not a big offensive threat so Dolson should be able to help off the ball.

Advantage UConn

PF - Breanna Stewart FR (6'4", 16.3, 6.4, 1.1) vs Mia Nickson SR (6'2", 9.0, 6.3, 1.2)

I'm interested to see how Stewart bounces back from a tough game. She really was pushed around. And now here comes Nickson. She scored 19 points on 8/12 shooting in last years matchup. But Stewart is a different animal here. Geno says that Stewart is a quick learner and one of the most competative players he knows. Both traits will be tested here.

Advantage UConn

SF - Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis SO (6', 14.7, 4.7, 2.8) vs Arial Edwards JR (6'3" 9.0, 4.3, .7)

Hopefully Lewis will be 100%. Geno said that he is hopeful she will play, so I will go with that. Lewis will come off screens and Edwards will be gasping for breath. Not a good matchup for her. Not a big offensive threat, Lewis is strong enough to keep Edwards out of the paint and she is not a big outside threat
Advantage UConn


Bench - Penn State (Taylor, Waldner, East, Studevent, Agee) vs UConn (Doty, Jefferson, Stokes, Tuck, Banks, Buck )

There is a huge talent gap between the two benches. You will see the Penn State starters get a ton of minutes.

Advantage UConn

Coaching - Geno vs Coquese Washington

For those who don't remember Washington was on the Notre Dame 2001 NCAA Championship team. Last year, she was Big 10 coach of the year. She has done a fabulous job, in my opinion. But she is no Geno. Heck, who is?

Advantage UConn

Summary - Just a little more than 8 months ago, Uconn handled Penn State fairly easily. With both teams returning 4 starters, it might be Stewart that makes a big difference. This year, Penn State struggles with TO's and UConn is not the team you want to see if that is the case. After a tough game against Maryland, I can see a very motivated UConn team with a very loud Gampel crowd.


Uconn by 35+ (Yeah, I know, same as Maryland)

I disagree about Breanna Stewart. Against a junior and senior, and two talented players at that, she more than held her own. Thomas has 6 points, Breanna had 13 points and six rebounds. If they play during the tournament, you'll see an even better performance from Breanna. A quick learner she is, and she will be even stronger, as she is already much stronger than she was in high school.

 

[doggydaddy]

I disagree about Breanna Stewart. Against a junior and senior, and two talented players at that, she more than held her own. Thomas has 6 points, Breanna had 13 points and six rebounds. If they play during the tournament, you'll see an even better performance from Breanna. A quick learner she is, and she will be even stronger, as she is already much stronger than she was in high school.

That's not what I saw. She struggled with the physicallity of the game. And more so as the game went on.

 

[reno tony]

Jeff Sagarin had UConn over MD by 18. The margin was 15. He has UConn over Penn St by 23.

A coupe of things to consider -
What are the chances of Hartley going 1-7 again?

The physicality of the MD game wasn't the cause of all the missed bunnies. UConn had a crappy shooting night. It happens.







I noticed that I mispelled couple. I left it intentionally just to irritate the grammar police.

I agree about Hartley and the missed shots...I counted five air balls under no pressure at all. Also, when have you seen UCONN shoot like they did against Maryland two games in a row? I like them to cover 23 points going away.

 

[Samanthabrown3]

I was all excited because I thought you were planning a coup, but alas...

Or saying that UConn has a coupeful of talent.