TL;DR - scroll down for the line and over/under based on power ratings.
Much handwringing over worthless voted-in rankings on the BY, as usual, but I've seen lately more often references to Massey ratings, a pretty good (and non-subjective) evaluating tool. But it occurred to me that many folks may not be aware of a few details and features of Massey:
Second, the importance of the actual numbers in the PWR rating and the HFA column: if one team is placed higher then another it simply means that if they would play now and on a neutral court the higher rated team will have more than 50% chance of winning - but how much more than a coin toss depends on how big the difference is in the actual little number (e.g. UConn vs Stanford would be very close to an even split in chance of winning with a likely MOV line of a point or so). But if you add in the homecourt advantage rating points, Stanford would be higher, and would have slightly more than 50% chance of winning at their place.
Third, the predictor. Massey PWR rating can be (and is) used for computing winning chances and setting lines etc. One caveat: it does not adjust for "events" (a recent illness or injury on one team, various other intangible factors); and bookies will factor that in, as well as the money pressure. But other than that, pretty reliable, especially if you are able to also interpret and factor in the nice probability distribution graphs.
So how does one use the predictor? Click on matchup button, choose the 2 teams, and choose "vs" (neutral court) or "at" or "hosting". Here are the odds for these two games if the games would be held today:
Much handwringing over worthless voted-in rankings on the BY, as usual, but I've seen lately more often references to Massey ratings, a pretty good (and non-subjective) evaluating tool. But it occurred to me that many folks may not be aware of a few details and features of Massey:
- the difference between "overall" and "power" ratings
- the importance of the little numbers in the ratings and the HFA column
- the use of the predictor to calculate per-game winning probabilities, MOV line, and over/under
Second, the importance of the actual numbers in the PWR rating and the HFA column: if one team is placed higher then another it simply means that if they would play now and on a neutral court the higher rated team will have more than 50% chance of winning - but how much more than a coin toss depends on how big the difference is in the actual little number (e.g. UConn vs Stanford would be very close to an even split in chance of winning with a likely MOV line of a point or so). But if you add in the homecourt advantage rating points, Stanford would be higher, and would have slightly more than 50% chance of winning at their place.
Third, the predictor. Massey PWR rating can be (and is) used for computing winning chances and setting lines etc. One caveat: it does not adjust for "events" (a recent illness or injury on one team, various other intangible factors); and bookies will factor that in, as well as the money pressure. But other than that, pretty reliable, especially if you are able to also interpret and factor in the nice probability distribution graphs.
So how does one use the predictor? Click on matchup button, choose the 2 teams, and choose "vs" (neutral court) or "at" or "hosting". Here are the odds for these two games if the games would be held today:
- Notre Dame at UConn: Huskies are a 9 point favorite, 73% chance of winning, over/under 141 points
- UConn at South Carolina: Gamecocks are an 8 point favorite, 71% chance of winning, over/under 139 points
