UConn: most dangerous team in NCAA field

[diggerfoot]

I'm an overly optimistic person at nature so I'd like to thread about some positive attributes that make this UConn team one of the most dangerous teams and a super #2 seed.

1. No other team in the field has three #1 high school players in Paige, Azzi and Sarah. These are players who had to score on teams under duress every night. healthy the base of these three is a rock solid foundation. Any one of these players can go off for 30 and if you key in on one, they others two will step up.
2. Aubrey Griffin - She is the game changer that I think has been missing from a lot of these runs and against elite teams like Notre Dame and USC, Aubrey can match the speed, physicality and well rested - this is her final chance to prove her WNBA stock. She'll be ready.
3. Ashlynn and KK - I almost forget they come off the bench because they come in and look like starters. They have a defensive and offensive integer they can put in the game depending on the match up.
4. Jana El Alfy - What she showed at South Carolina was that when she stakes are high, she will play her best. I hope that pattern keep going because at 6-5, UConn will need her.

UConn is well coached, which means they get better throughout the year as long as they are not continually adapting to new rotations due to injuries. Post players in particular need time to develop, which explains why Brady came into her own by tournament time last year. Even though she is coming off of injury, past evidence suggests Brady will do just as well contributing this year … or better. Thus:

4. Our post players skill and depth give us an advantage this year.
5. The trajectory of improvement for this team should continue.

 

[diggerfoot]

Two fallacies often repeated:

“We must shoot 3s at a high percentage to win.“ The 2002 team, considered to be our best by some, shot 0-9 from three in the championship game against Oklahoma. This hints at another fallacy.

“If we don’t have our A game we are toast.” Against Stanford we scored 12 points in the first half of the championship game, yet came back to win. Thinking we are toast without our A game assumes everyone else will have theirs, but in reality it’s not often that any team has their A game on both defense and offense.

This contributes to why ”defense wins championships.” The best offense with five players all on at the same time can overcome the best defense, but an A game on defense is more reliable than an A game on offense.

 

[packwrap]

I'm sorry to have to say this, but UConn will never get a number 1 seed in any year unless they go undefeated. Big East games do not enhance our resume, in fact it goes against us. We must go unbeaten in conference as always, plus we must win every OOC game we play.
Let's face it, our conference affiliation is hurting us as regards to the P4.

Not really true. If we were 31-2 this year instead of 30-3, we would surely have a 1 seed this year.

More importantly with continued great defense and at least decent shooting, we can still compete with anyone as a #2 seed.

I wish it was already Sunday; can't wait to see our bracket!

 

[BRS24]

UConn, due to a combination of players getting healthy and coaching, are a much better team than they were at the beginning of the season. and, it seems to me, the other top teams have not only not gotten better, they have retrogressed. They have all lost to each other and have often looked bad in doing so.

Has there been any noticeable improvement in individual basketball skills or team offense or defense of the other top teams over the course of this season?

The UConn coaching staff, on the other hand, has traditionally demonstrated that they can significantly improve individual basketball skills and also team offensive and defense.

For instance, is anyone still saying that Notre Dame has the best backcourt- perhaps some are. But ND has probably regressed the most of all the top teams.

By tournament time, UConn will have a seamless ten player rotation that will present huge problems and have answers for any team that they will play. The burden of success will not lay on any player, or even any two players.

Some good points here. UConn's defense is forcing teams to work really hard in scoring, and I saw fewer breakdowns in communication and coverage.

The three teams that need to right the ship sooner or later, IMO, are USC, Texas, and ND. In the latter part of the regular season and in the conference tourneys, there were quite a few "meh" games where they won, however it seemed that the teams were struggling when this time of year things should be firing on all cylinders. I also believe that having 1-2 players take and hopefully make most of the teams shots is not something to depend on in the NCAAT, as things can get wild and wacky quickly. I was surprised at how poorly Watkins and Booker shot in the last few games. ND seems a bit disjointed, so hopefully they can get it together. One of the biggest advantages of the SEC, ACC, BE, B10, B12 conferences is that the tourneys are a week before Selection Sunday, so this gives teams two weeks to tweak the good, and fix the bad.

 

[Steelerone]

Forget Paige and Azzi. Whether or not we win depends on rebounding and Sarah herself is not enough to match teams like Texas and Southern Cal. Someone, either Jana or Ice or Aubrey is going to have to help her under the boards and by that I mean they are going to have to make their presence known. If we can even come close to matching these teams in rebounds we are on our way to a national championship. Otherwise, we keep looking for a power center.

 

[Happydad745]

UConn should be fine through to the elite eight....that is where the real threats show up. I believe we have a good shot at getting to the final four, maybe even to the title game. After that we will need everybody to play their very best and maybe a little bit of luck, it couldn't hurt. The parity, this year, might be the most balanced it has ever been.

 

[JoePgh]

I'm sorry to have to say this, but UConn will never get a number 1 seed in any year unless they go undefeated. Big East games do not enhance our resume, in fact it goes against us. We must go unbeaten in conference as always, plus we must win every OOC game we play.
Let's face it, our conference affiliation is hurting us as regards to the P4.

If UConn had won the Tennessee game, I think there would be a consensus that UConn should be a #1 seed. Relative to the losses of other #1 seed candidates, that was a really bad loss, even though it was on TN's court and was only by 4 points.

Obviously, it is also true that if UConn had played in a P4 conference and had 2 or 3 in-conference losses to other top teams, it could also have gotten a 1-seed that way. If UConn were in a P4 conference, it would probably have a cupcake-filled OOC schedule with perhaps one or two challenging games, but that would be OK since there would be plenty of Quad 1 win opportunities in conference.

I thought it was interesting that in the SOS ranking chart that @HuskyNan posted, UConn was 48th in overall SOS but 2nd in out-of-conference SOS. That is the inescapable impact of being in the Big East, and it is not a fully solvable problem at this point.

 

[BrianF]

I'm sorry to have to say this, but UConn will never get a number 1 seed in any year unless they go undefeated. Big East games do not enhance our resume, in fact it goes against us. We must go unbeaten in conference as always, plus we must win every OOC game we play.
Let's face it, our conference affiliation is hurting us as regards to the P4.

It's not going to get better. Next year the Big East is going to a 20 game conference season. Less non-conference games. This year they were 10-3 against non-conference. Ten of those teams are in the tournament. Fairleigh Dickinson will likely punch their ticket today. Eleven of 13 is damn good. Next year they will have a lower NET and non-con SOS.

 

[fomalhaut]

It's not going to get better. Next year the Big East is going to a 20 game conference season. Less non-conference games. This year they were 10-3 against non-conference. Ten of those teams are in the tournament. Fairleigh Dickinson will likely punch their ticket today. Eleven of 13 is damn good. Next year they will have a lower NET and non-con SOS.

NET is mostly correlated with scoring margin. A couple more Big East games won't skew that much.

 

[snowkot]

No Chen?
It seems she is always forgotten ...

Let's hope our opponent's scouts do as well.

When on, she gives 4 legitimate outside threats, which, with a motion offense, and good passers, is almost impossible defend.

For me, going to come down to coach's rotations, especially once they come up against teams with real, honest bigs, as Strong at the 5 will not work. One would hope this would mean real, effective, relatively foul-free minutes for El Alfy, and to a lesser extent Brady. Especially off Shade's performances in the bigger matchups last year, and this (with one exception), as reflected in the box scores. 20+ minutes for Shade, with El Alfy / Brady at 10+ would not fare well against teams with a true post.

Another key factor, anticipating screens, beating players to the spot on the weakside, before the offensive player engages the screen.

 

[Zonepress]

Two fallacies often repeated:

“We must shoot 3s at a high percentage to win.“ The 2002 team, considered to be our best by some, shot 0-9 from three in the championship game against Oklahoma. This hints at another fallacy.

“If we don’t have our A game we are toast.” Against Stanford we scored 12 points in the first half of the championship game, yet came back to win. Thinking we are toast without our A game assumes everyone else will have theirs, but in reality it’s not often that any team has their A game on both defense and offense.

This contributes to why ”defense wins championships.” The best offense with five players all on at the same time can overcome the best defense, but an A game on defense is more reliable than an A game on offense.

Have to disagree
All3 of uconn loses we’re due to poor
offense
Under 30 points in each first half against both USC and ND put them behind by double digits and it was very difficult to make up the deficit
The numerous missed layups and poor shooting
At Tenn was the culprit
UConn we’ll always be solid on defense, but you’re not going to shut down teams like USC
Over the past few years, it’s been offensive droughts that have cause most of the losses
Paige SS Jana ice kk and Aubrey you pretty much
Know what u will get some great some not so much
The shooting by Azzi KC
And AS Will determine how we do in the tournament

 

[Cuango]

I'm sorry to have to say this, but UConn will never get a number 1 seed in any year unless they go undefeated. Big East games do not enhance our resume, in fact it goes against us. We must go unbeaten in conference as always, plus we must win every OOC game we play.
Let's face it, our conference affiliation is hurting us as regards to the P4.

I have to disagree here as I believe we would certainly be a #1 if we had simply beaten any one of the three teams we lost to. Even a win over Tennessee, clearly the weakest of the three, would almost certainly have resulted in a #1 yesterday and in case anyone disagrees with that, take your choice of either of the other two or suppose we had beaten two of the three. I do agree that the woeful performance of the Big East as a whole, is clearly a millstone around our neck, but having to go undefeated every year is simply not in the cards. In certain years of course, that might be the case, but not every year. Certainly not as long as Geno continues to schedule a strong out of conference slate.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Not really true. If we were 31-2 this year instead of 30-3, we would surely have a 1 seed this year.

More importantly with continued great defense and at least decent shooting, we can still compete with anyone as a #2 seed.

I wish it was already Sunday; can't wait to see our bracket!

I think you mean 32 - 2, with the extra win being with USC, which could also meant another BE team may have made the Tourney instead of going to the WBIT.

As it is Bulter made the WNIT with a losing record (4 others with losing records are in as well, plus two in the WBIT at 16-17).

I can't complain about the Spokane #4 bracket, as I believe it will be a double digit win vs. Juju & company in the Elite 8.

Go Huskies!!!

 

[Inthepaint]

I feel like if we score more points than the other team we will win.

Angling for Geno’s job?

 

[ABCDFE]

Forget Paige and Azzi. Whether or not we win depends on rebounding and Sarah herself is not enough to match teams like Texas and Southern Cal. Someone, either Jana or Ice or Aubrey is going to have to help her under the boards and by that I mean they are going to have to make their presence known. If we can even come close to matching these teams in rebounds we are on our way to a national championship. Otherwise, we keep looking for a power center.

This is why Aubrey can be a vital piece for us this post season. She’s always good for a couple of offensive rebounds and a transition bucket. In tight games that can mean everything.

 

[snowkot]

.
And AS Will determine how we do in the tournament

For me, more like how quickly coach deploys in-game adjustments if she's ineffective, diverting from the usually rigid rotations, to more playing time for Griffin (elite offensive rebounding), El Alfy (size, rebounding), Brady (perimiter offense, size on the blocks), and Arnold+Chen depending on game flow.

 

[MooseJaw]

I feel like if we score more points than the other team we will win.

What a concept.