UConn MHOC @2026 Hockey East Men’s Championship Tournament > Semi-Final Game v. Boston College (Fri. 3/20/26 @7p @TD Garden, Boston MA). NESN | Page 5 | The Boneyard

UConn MHOC @2026 Hockey East Men’s Championship Tournament > Semi-Final Game v. Boston College (Fri. 3/20/26 @7p @TD Garden, Boston MA). NESN

SubbaBub said:
13-18 in the current NPI.

13. UMass, likely in. Guaranteed with a win over Merrimack.
14. St Thomas, beat Augustana, still needs the autobid unless both UConn and UMass lose in the semis.
15. UConn, win vs BC and in. Lose and out.
16. Augustana, likely out, only get in if St Thomas, UMass and UConn lose their next game.
17. Minnesota State, need to beat St Thomas for the CCHA autobiography.
18. BC, need to win the HE autobid.
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I’m not an expert on this, but I don’t think that’s right. It’s not the top 16 that get in — it’s the 6 conference champions and then the 10 most highly ranked non-conference champions. I don’t think you’ve accounted for “bid stealers,” of which there is guaranteed one (the winner of the Atlantic), assuming we beat BC the possibility of Merrimack in Hockey East, and possibilities in the Big Ten, the ECAS and the CCHA. I don’t think UMass is even guaranteed with a win in the semis.

But if I’m wrong happy to listen to a better explanation.
 
So I looked on tick pick they have tickets for 45 bucks which is cheap and there's plenty. But that's for the championship game and that's if UConn beats bc!
 
@JeannoCT found it!

IMG_9370.jpeg
 
businesslawyer said:
I’m not an expert on this, but I don’t think that’s right. It’s not the top 16 that get in — it’s the 6 conference champions and then the 10 most highly ranked non-conference champions. I don’t think you’ve accounted for “bid stealers,” of which there is guaranteed one (the winner of the Atlantic), assuming we beat BC the possibility of Merrimack in Hockey East, and possibilities in the Big Ten, the ECAS and the CCHA. I don’t think UMass is even guaranteed with a win in the semis.

But if I’m wrong happy to listen to a better explanation.
Expand ...

UConn and UMass are virtually in the same position. Win in the HE semis but lose in the finals, it comes down to Ohio State and Clarkson/Princeton being bid stealers. The one very slight bonus for us is that even though we trail UMass by .02 in NPI right now, we'll jump UMass if we beat BC since it'll be a better win than if UMass beats Merrimack. Augustana would be eliminated if the HE final is UConn-UMass, they need either one of us to lose to stay alive.

The CCHA final doesn't actually matter much for us. The loser won't get an at-large. I think now that we'd want Minnesota State to beat St. Thomas since their NPI is lower and it could help an HE champion UConn play in Albany or Worcester.

Bottom line, the rooting guide this weekend is:

UConn (duh)
Merrimack (UMass winning doesn't end our AL chances, but it would certainly benefit us in many ways if MC wins)
Dartmouth/Cornell
Michigan
 
SubbaBub said:
13-18 in the current NPI.

13. UMass, likely in. Guaranteed with a win over Merrimack.
14. St Thomas, beat Augustana, still needs the autobid unless both UConn and UMass lose in the semis.
15. UConn, win vs BC and in. Lose and out.
16. Augustana, likely out, only get in if St Thomas, UMass and UConn lose their next game.
17. Minnesota State, need to beat St Thomas for the CCHA autobiography.
18. BC, need to win the HE autobid.
Expand ...
Disagree slightly with 15. That was my initial assessment too. But they may have to win twice more. Beating BC won't give their NPI a real kick, more like an inch up with a lot depending on other results. Note that beating BU did them no good at all. And if they play Merrimack and lose, that would be costly and might drop them out. It is a multivariate problem and thus a lot of moving parts requiring a simulation model and a Monte Carlo analysis.
 
.-.
businesslawyer said:
I’m not an expert on this, but I don’t think that’s right. It’s not the top 16 that get in — it’s the 6 conference champions and then the 10 most highly ranked non-conference champions. I don’t think you’ve accounted for “bid stealers,” of which there is guaranteed one (the winner of the Atlantic), assuming we beat BC the possibility of Merrimack in Hockey East, and possibilities in the Big Ten, the ECAS and the CCHA. I don’t think UMass is even guaranteed with a win in the semis.

But if I’m wrong happy to listen to a better explanation.
Expand ...
Only thing we need to keep an eye on is the autobids including the AHA which will have no at large bids. So it is effectively the top 9 as the AHA autobid will be the 16th seed.
 
I just got an email from the school a half-hour ago (I'm not a hockey season ticket holder) and bought tickets in Loge 14, so that seems like another UConn section.
 
.-.
RSTuthill said:
Disagree slightly with 15. That was my initial assessment too. But they may have to win twice more. Beating BC won't give their NPI a real kick, more like an inch up with a lot depending on other results. Note that beating BU did them no good at all. And if they play Merrimack and lose, that would be costly and might drop them out. It is a multivariate problem and thus a lot of moving parts requiring a simulation model and a Monte Carlo analysis.
Expand ...
Without knowing how to play results out on a computer, I did go through it and I think the odds are fairly low that we can get in beating BC and losing in the final. Everything else in the college hockey world would have to break perfectly. And, for that to be our plan, we better lose to UMass in the finals, not Merrimack, and our win over BC better be in regulation and our finals loss in a penalty shootout where for NPI purposes it counts as a tie.

In any event, all that matters now is beating BC. I’m sure by Saturday morning there will be more clarity on whether getting in as an at large is possible.
 
FYI, I wrote to TD Garden customer service this morning, asking which sections were designated for UConn fans. I just received a reply back that it's Loge 13 and 14. There was nothing available in 13 when I tried, so I'm assuming that section is reserved for family, administration, and upper level of donors. I was shocked they actually answered me!
 
T
businesslawyer said:
Without knowing how to play results out on a computer, I did go through it and I think the odds are fairly low that we can get in beating BC and losing in the final. Everything else in the college hockey world would have to break perfectly. And, for that to be our plan, we better lose to UMass in the finals, not Merrimack, and our win over BC better be in regulation and our finals loss in a penalty shootout where for NPI purposes it counts as a tie.

In any event, all that matters now is beating BC. I’m sure by Saturday morning there will be more clarity on whether getting in as an at large is possible.
Expand ...
They don't play 3 on 3 in ot. They play 5 on 5 untill someone wins. So if it goes to overtime and UConn wins it counts as a normal win!
 
.-.
businesslawyer said:
Without knowing how to play results out on a computer, I did go through it and I think the odds are fairly low that we can get in beating BC and losing in the final. Everything else in the college hockey world would have to break perfectly. And, for that to be our plan, we better lose to UMass in the finals, not Merrimack, and our win over BC better be in regulation and our finals loss in a penalty shootout where for NPI purposes it counts as a tie.

In any event, all that matters now is beating BC. I’m sure by Saturday morning there will be more clarity on whether getting in as an at large is possible.
Expand ...

Barring some statistical anomaly in the new NPI system that no one has seen yet, this is how the cutline would look if we lose to Merrimack in the final:

13. Tommies/Minnesota State winner
14. UConn
---
15. Augustana
16. UMass
Bid Stealers - Merrimack, Bentley/Sacred Heart

In this scenario, UConn still makes it as long as Michigan and Dartmouth/Cornell win their conferences. While a Merrimack loss would hurt our NPI, a BC win would also improve our NPI. UMass would only have the one loss to Merrimack and slip. Augustana also gets virtually no boost from either CCHA winner (1-1-1 vs. Mankato, 1-1-2 vs. Tommies).

This is still leaving our fate in the hands of 2-3 other teams. And this might just be my own opinion, but I think the committee is sending us to Sioux Falls (to be slaughtered by North Dakota) or Loveland if we do get in as an at-large.

Bottom line, win two this weekend and get our first HE title so we can play in Worcester/Albany.
 
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