UConn Metrics (12/17)

[BFieldHusky]

NET: 7
KenPom: 7
BPI: 9

Q1: 4-1
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 1-0
Q4: 4-0

Road/Neutral: 4-0

Notable wins: BYU (6, N) Illinois (12, N) Kansas (13, A) Florida (23, N), Butler (47, H)

 

[king conn]

Someone explain how our kenpom offensive rating fell after last night, with virtually nobody else playing. Duke played, but they were ahead of us anyway

 

[Storrs South]

Someone explain how our kenpom offensive rating fell after last night, with virtually nobody else playing. Duke played, but they were ahead of us anyway

UConn was expected to perform better offensively versus Butler -- UConn still covered the spread since the defense significantly outperformed expectations.

 

[imno1]

Who thought our defensive would be rated higher than our offense so far?

 

[2014DualCs]

I mean I’ve still yet to see this offensive humming at a full clip this year. Hoping I’m not sitting here waiting for that all year.

 

[Get a Job]

Someone explain how our kenpom offensive rating fell after last night, with virtually nobody else playing. Duke played, but they were ahead of us anyway

Whether other teams play or not is irrelevant in this case. When UConn plays, their KenPom ratings will change based on performance relative to what the formulas predicted. KenPom "rankings" are just a list of values sorted in ascending or descending order. Therefore UConn can move in the "rankings" regardless of what other teams are doing. Similarly, UConn can move in the rankings even when UConn doesn't play.

 

[UCann]

I'll Add:

Torvik: 2
Evan Miya: 7

 

[TheRealKBuks]

How does FT shooting effect our offensive metrics? Is it a big line item or not that weighted? I anticipate our team FT% will improve as we approach March.

 

[FlockOfLambs]

+3.7 wins above bubble (#2 overall)

 

[king conn]

UConn was expected to perform better offensively versus Butler -- UConn still covered the spread since the defense significantly outperformed expectations.

What was wrong with our offense last night?

Shooting % were good, scored almost 80 points against a borderline top 50 team. We need to score 90 ppg? Who does that?

 

[JustbrewitMan]

How does FT shooting effect our offensive metrics? Is it a big line item or not that weighted? I anticipate our team FT% will improve as we approach March.

The base metric for offense for KP (ORtg) is Points scored per 100 possessions. That gets adjusted based on various items (quality of opponent, tempo, a luck factor, plus other proprietary KP special sauce)

So, every trip where the offense does not score (TO, missed FG, etc.) or partially scores (missed FT(s)) will drag down the ORtg to some extent.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

What was wrong with our offense last night?

Shooting % were good, scored almost 80 points against a borderline top 50 team. We need to score 90 ppg? Who does that?

We had 69 offensive possessions vs Butler last night (nice). Scored 79 points. Using some of the other adjustments similar to described in my post above, Hoop Explorer had our game performance last night as 116.3 pts/100 possessions. This is lower than our season average of 123.7 pts/100. So, our ORtg on KenPom went down. We were less efficient than our previous games' average.

Things that contributed to this: 8/13 FT shooting, 15 turnovers

 

[FightOnCT]

What was wrong with our offense last night?

Shooting % were good, scored almost 80 points against a borderline top 50 team. We need to score 90 ppg? Who does that?

Too many turnovers, we had enough possessions to run up the margin to 25-30+ like Hurley stated earlier. The TOs not only rate our offense lower but also make it harder to pull away from opponents.

 

[Lafayette]

7th on Evanmiya

15.4 O
13.4 D

Malachi Smith is 6th for playmaking

Roster strength 9th

Since we have many stars who dan have a big night we don’t really have a presumptive mvp at this point and since it’s early going about 1/3 into the season) this will change as it always does so decent snapshot as this time.

 

[RuffRuff]

7th on Evanmiya

15.4 O
13.4 D

Malachi Smith is 6th for playmaking

Roster strength 9th

Since we have many stars who dan have a big night we don’t really have a presumptive mvp at this point and since it’s early going about 1/3 into the season) this will change as it always does so decent snapshot as this time.

Roster strength 9 is laughable.

 

[JCisthegoat]

IF we can fully unlock Demary, I think we’re a dynasty

 

[HooperScooper]

Who thought our defensive would be rated higher than our offense so far?

Which reminds me to post this article from CBS Sports. Before the season Isaac Trotter predicted the rankings of the best rated offenses on kenpom and compares those predictions to where the teams are ranked now on kenpom. He had UConn #1 preseason.

UConn​

Preseason rank: 1 | Current rank: 17

The trend: UConn has stayed afloat offensively even with Tarris Reed and Braylon Mullins missing considerable time. I think this offense is still a sleeping giant, considering the best starting 5 of Solo Ball, Silas Demary Jr., Alex Karaban, Mullins and Reed has played a whopping 13 minutes together. Give it time to simmer.

Trotter's Trends: Ohio State's Bruce Thornton on a heater; Kentucky's new plan

This week's edition of trends also digs into the offenses who have (or haven't) lived up to the hype.

www.cbssports.com

 

[RuffRuff]

IF we can fully unlock Demary, I think we’re a dynasty

A1 for sure. Blending Mullins in with more intention A2.

 

[auror]

EvanMiya's BPR player ranking changes from the preseason

 

[bendm]

EvanMiya's BPR player ranking changes from the preseason
View attachment 114716

are those the current rankings or from the preseason? mullins and reibe seem awfully low.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

EvanMiya's BPR player ranking changes from the preseason
View attachment 114716

Don't know what bpr is exactly but I take this to mean everyone sans Tarris and Braylon have outplayed expectations?

 

[auror]

are those the current rankings or from the preseason? mullins and reibe seem awfully low.

Don't know what bpr is exactly but I take this to mean everyone sans Tarris and Braylon have outplayed expectations?

Yes. The ratings column is current and change is the difference from the preseason.

I'm honestly a little surprised Reibe's defensive rating has gotten worse, but perhaps the high 4* center defensive BPR is a high projection to begin. The team's defense has been a lot better with Reed than Reibe in general, though he was great last night and is improving rapidly to my eye. The 7-day change does show his rating improving.

 

[businesslawyer]

+3.7 wins above bubble (#2 overall)

I'd love to see this one added to Brookfield Husky's updates. But as our ranking falls now because of our schedule not being as strong as what teams in the Big XII, SEC and Big Ten will have, I may be happier to not see it. The "power" as opposed to "resume" rankings can stay or go up if you just beat your mediocre opponents by enough more than other teams are beating stronger opponents.

 

[businesslawyer]

Yes. The ratings column is current and change is the difference from the preseason.

I'm honestly a little surprised Reibe's defensive rating has gotten worse, but perhaps the high 4* center defensive BPR is a high projection to begin. The team's defense has been a lot better with Reed than Reibe in general, though he was great last night and is improving rapidly to my eye. The 7-day change does show his rating improving.

Team defensive rankings from a computer are worthwhile. Individual rankings I still don't believe are. No one knows what a coach wants a defensive player to do in every situation, and very little of it can be measured by individual metrics.

 

[Inyatkin]

EvanMiya's BPR player ranking changes from the preseason
View attachment 114716

Solo defense way better than expected