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In Mulkey's defense, her current transfer strategy has dovetailed with the recent switch in programs from Baylor to LSU. At Baylor I would argue she had built the kind of sustainable program culture off traditional recruiting you refer to, accomplishing 3 titles on a fairly regular 6-7 year cycle and being a consistent 1-2 seed in NCAA regionals. At LSU she had to jumpstart an underachieving program, with aggressive recruiting of transfers & HS grads. She did win a title ahead of schedule in year two, but, as you note, is still on the transfer treadmill to date. I suspect the pressure to tread water with SC and Texas (and now Tenn.) contributes to that.It looks to me like coaches are squeezed on both sides. And I think you have to distinguish between a team (a season long project) and a program (a decades long project).
For many coaches, the goal is to have a winning record, and as long as they don't commit the AD to drumming up millions for a team that usually goes 20-14, their job is probably secure. They'll never contend for a ring, but that may not be their goal. This they can accomplish by getting less highly sought after transfers and middling recruits. But if the AD and the President want to use the program to raise money from alumni donors for the endowment or some other purpose, then they need the coach to produce a contender, and probably to do it for several years. This forces them more decisively into the portal game and to spending NIL money.
But you can't build a program that way. Alumni donors may think you can just throw money at it. What Geno and Dawn and Tara and others have amply demonstrated is that programs are built by recruiting the right sort of kids and teaching them some hard lessons. Brenda Frese has hung on for many years, lurking at the edge of program-level competitiveness, and she did it mainly through recruiting and without a huge NIL budget. Eventually, she got burned by the portal starting with Angel going to LSU, and she's tried to fix it through the portal, but has not succeeded so far. Her last great recruit who stayed the course was Sheyanne Sellers, and I wonder if she can have a success like her again. And no transfer has been enough to bail the program out. Before the portal era, this was Kim as well. She seemed to play the game better than Brenda. But now she too is entangled in the portal trap and will only succeed if she makes the rumors of vast NIL offers actually come true.
I had some hope for Lindsay Gottleib. She launched what could be the beginning of a program-level contender with one superstar recruit and a bunch of transfers. Other than Rayah Marshall, I can't think of any longterm recruits who made her rotation two seasons ago. And on the strength of that season, she brought in one of the best recruiting classes in D1, probably the best one in USC history. But she accepted transfers over it with Iriafen and von Oelhofen and as a result seemed to have lost almost all her transfers. She's landed another good recruit in Jazzy, though not much else, and even that was before the end-of-season debacle emerged. We'll see if she can manage to recruit another good class. If not, I think USC will not achieve lasting success as a program.
(Edit: and now that I've mentioned Texas, it would appear Schaeffer is building through a sustainable program strategy)
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