UConn Coach’s Win % by year

[tjhusky]

Although I am sure I have better things to do on a Sat morning (I know I do), I was thinking about how the last 4 UConn BB coaches performed over their careers. The only purpose of this was to try to guess, based on past performance, the possible future of UConn basketball. I am not trying to knock any prior coaches.


This is not a statistical analysis, just a couple of Excel charts. Here is what I did – I took each year of a coach’s career and calculated their % of wins. I ignored things like national championships, tournaments appearances, and school changes. I figure, if the coach can have a consistently good and upward trend of winning, everything else will take care of itself.


Because JC’s career was so much longer than the others (39 years) I created two charts – Career %Wins and % Wins First 9 years. The graphs alone are interesting, but I added linear trend lines which made thing really interesting. The trend lines help me see which coaches are “Program Builders” and which could not sustain a program.


I can’t wait to see the 2018-19 Coach Hurley Huskies take the court. If he can continue his past success at UConn I think the future is bright.

 

[NowInStorrs]

Wow. If that one coach had stuck around for a while, our projected winning percentage would be less that 0%. Impressive.

 

[tjhusky]

Wow. If that one coach had stuck around for a while, our projected winning percentage would be less that 0%. Impressive.

I guess if we get enough NCAA sanctions we could have negative wins.

 

[Bryan Lord]

That purple line sort of sucks.

 

[Scrutineer]

View attachment 33292

Although I am sure I have better things to do on a Sat morning (I know I do), I was thinking about how the last 4 UConn BB coaches performed over their careers. The only purpose of this was to try to guess, based on past performance, the possible future of UConn basketball. I am not trying to knock any prior coaches.


This is not a statistical analysis, just a couple of Excel charts. Here is what I did – I took each year of a coach’s career and calculated their % of wins. I ignored things like national championships, tournaments appearances, and school changes. I figure, if the coach can have a consistently good and upward trend of winning, everything else will take care of itself.


Because JC’s career was so much longer than the others (39 years) I created two charts – Career %Wins and % Wins First 9 years. The graphs alone are interesting, but I added linear trend lines which made thing really interesting. The trend lines help me see which coaches are “Program Builders” and which could not sustain a program.


I can’t wait to see the 2018-19 Coach Hurley Huskies take the court. If he can continue his past success at UConn I think the future is bright.

So many variables, but interesting. Hurley took the big dip in year three because URI was so bad, and Calhoun was building Northeastern steadily during his first nine so his first year at UConn doesn't factor into the nine year chart, is that correct?

 

[pj]

Interesting, I hadn't realized how closely Ollie's win line tracked Perno's. Take away Perno's first year and the tracks are almost identical.

I predict Hurley's line will closely track Calhoun's. 70% win percentage next year, 60-80% the following year depending on how recruiting goes, then consistently in the 70-80% range with occasional excursions to 90%.

 

[Scrutineer]

Interesting, I hadn't realized how closely Ollie's win line tracked Perno's. Take away Perno's first year and the tracks are almost identical.

I predict Hurley's line will closely track Calhoun's. 70% win percentage next year, 60-80% the following year depending on how recruiting goes, then consistently in the 70-80% range with occasional excursions to 90%.

Ye of little faith must reconsider. Why with Achiuwa, Cockburn, Akok, Watts and Quinones we should be 90 to 95% by year two..........

 

[intlzncster]

That purple line sort of sucks.

True, but the green line is well outpacing JC. Limited data.

That said, glad we've got Hurley this year.

 

[intlzncster]

Interesting, I hadn't realized how closely Ollie's win line tracked Perno's. Take away Perno's first year and the tracks are almost identical.

I predict Hurley's line will closely track Calhoun's. 70% win percentage next year, 60-80% the following year depending on how recruiting goes, then consistently in the 70-80% range with occasional excursions to 90%.

So Hurley's going to the HOF? Damn, exceptions aren't low that's for sure.

 

[pj]

So Hurley's going to the HOF? Damn, exceptions aren't low that's for sure.

Hurley's in the AAC, not the 1985-2011 Big East. So he doesn't have to be as good as Calhoun to match JC's win percentage.

For comparison, Calipari won 73% at UMass and 78% at Memphis. Archie Miller won 74% his last 4 years at Dayton. Chris Holtmann won 69% at Butler. Chris Mack won 69% at Xavier. Gregg Marshall won 81% his last 9 years at Wichita State. Mike Brey won 78% his last two years at Delaware before moving to Notre Dame. Mark Few has won 82% at Gonzaga. Jay Wright 72% at Villanova. In JC's last 7 years at Northeastern, his win percentage ranged from 70% to 85% in 6 of the 7 years, one year at 46.4%; 3 of the 7 years were over 80%.

Bottom line: If you can outrecruit your peers, which Hurley should be able to do with UConn's facilities, history, and fertile recruiting territory against a bunch of southern conference competitors, then you don't have to be a Hall of Fame coach to reach a 70% winning percentage. Just a very good one.

You could argue that a 64% win percentage, which is what Hurley averaged his last 4 years at Rhody, is a more fair expectation than the 74% win percentage he averaged his last 2 years at Rhody. Yet, a lot of quality coaches in second-tier conferences have achieved 70-80% winning percentages. I've gotta believe that winning at UConn in the AAC is easier than winning at Rhody in the A10. So 64% is a floor, and one Hurley should exceed easily.

 

[auror]

The Ollie line context of moving to a new (and easier schedule-wise for wins) conference makes it even worse.

 

[intlzncster]

Hurley's in the AAC, not the 1985-2011 Big East. So he doesn't have to be as good as Calhoun to match JC's win percentage.

For comparison, Calipari won 73% at UMass and 78% at Memphis. Archie Miller won 74% his last 4 years at Dayton. Chris Holtmann won 69% at Butler. Chris Mack won 69% at Xavier. Gregg Marshall won 81% his last 9 years at Wichita State.

Bottom line: If you can outrecruit your peers, which Hurley should be able to do with UConn's facilities, history, and fertile recruiting territory against a bunch of southern conference competitors, then you don't have to be a fantastic coach to reach a 70% winning percentage.

You could argue that a 64% win percentage, which is what Hurley averaged his last 4 years at Rhody, is a more fair expectation than the 74% win percentage he averaged his last 2 years at Rhody. Yet, a lot of quality coaches in second-tier conferences have achieved 70-80% winning percentages.

That all depends on OOC though. With a very strong OOC, as I hope we have year in year out, it lessens the %. I'd also think the AAC would usually be tougher than the old CUSA, A10, and such.

Those are all some of the best young coaches in the game. Hopefully Hurley can count himself among that crew as time goes on.

 

[pj]

That all depends on OOC though. With a very strong OOC, as I hope we have year in year out, it lessens the %. I'd also think the AAC would usually be tougher than the old CUSA, A10, and such.

Those are all some of the best young coaches in the game. Hopefully Hurley can count himself among that crew as time goes on.

I think the elite scheduling will be increasingly difficult as the P5 separate and add more conference games.

I also think Hurley is already on the verge of being counted in that group. Would you bet against him? I don't think so.

 

[tjhusky]

So many variables, but interesting. Hurley took the big dip in year three because URI was so bad, and Calhoun was building Northeastern steadily during his first nine so his first year at UConn doesn't factor into the nine year chart, is that correct?

He was at NE for his first 14 seasons. His first UConn season was his 15th going 9-19.

Being a college BB coach is not easy. You need to be great at so many things to be successful - recruiting and developing players, and getting a group that can radically change each season to play well together.

In this small sample JC and Dan Hurley look like they figured it out and kept it going as they changed schools. Hopefully Dan Hurley has the formula that works for him and he can keep that going with us.

 

[intlzncster]

I think the elite scheduling will be increasingly difficult as the P5 separate and add more conference games.

I also think Hurley is already on the verge of being counted in that group. Would you bet against him? I don't think so.

I'm not betting against him, but I'm not throwing down money on it either. At this point, it's inconclusive. We'll see how we fair on the recruiting trail and look at how we play this year. Then at least we'll have some data to go by. What's past is prologue.

Again, very happy to have him.