UConn article from 538

[HuskyNan]

With Paige Bueckers Back, How Far Can UConn Go?

After the Connecticut women’s basketball team lost Paige Bueckers in December, and the Huskies returned to the court with a lackluster 44-point effort in a loss…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[oldude]

A lot of interesting numbers in the article, as you might expect from 538. The one I find compelling is that UConn leads the nation in “the differential” between offensive & defensive efficiency, which is the difference in points/100 possessions scored vs points/100 possessions allowed. I believe the last time UConn lead the nation in that category was 2015-16.

 

[SVCBeercats]

Amen, Howard!!!

"To be clear, we’re not living in the time of Breanna Stewart at UConn, where anything close to a loss would have been among the rarest of upsets, especially from her sophomore year on. This is a more limited Huskies group compared with, for instance, the 2016 team, which I would argue is the best of all time."

 

[my2cents]

If Paige is our question mark or main variable, I like our chances.

 

[augustaTC]

Good article.

 

[diggerfoot]

In hearkening back to when we last led the nation in the differential between offensive and defensive efficiencies, I make a prediction similar to what occurred in 2012-2013.

We could win or lose a close game with an elite team, likely SC or Stanford. On the one hand we have closers in Bueckers and Ducharme (and maybe Fudd, though still to be determined), but our mistake/experience indicators do not match our efficiency indicators. Turnovers and/or foul differentials could cost us a close game. Many think rebounding differential will be the key stat; I suspect these “mistake” indicators will be.

However, if the game is won by 10 or more points, like ND in 2013 despite having lost to them 3 times previously that year, our efficiency indicators suggest we will be the victors.

Footnote, in 2016 our “mistake” indicators were also among the best (can’t remember if they were THE best), along with our efficiency indicators, making for one of the best teams of all time.

 

[Drumguy]

Watching games and seeing the hype, it seems like most of the media is sleeping on us. 538 spells put how crazy that is. Nicely written.

 

[HuskyNan]

My favorite part, and one sometimes forgotten even by Boneyarders:

As mentioned, UConn’s 25-5 record so far includes losses only to NCAA Tournament teams and, if anything, undersells how good it has been this season. The Huskies are ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency, for the best margin in the country per 100 possessions. They are second in the country in field-goal percentage, 17th in rebounding rate, ninth in assist-to-turnover ratio and 14th in block percentage. This is not a team with any obvious weaknesses on either side of the ball.

And they did this without their primary point guard for most of the season.

Guard play was inconsistent in those games after Paige then Nika went down, to say the least. After Evina was able to overcome her grief over a personal tragedy, Christyn accepted her role as a slasher, Nika found her niche as a distributor and defensive terror, and Caroline emerged as a viable fourth guard, Geno had the tools to move people around to cover up whatever issues presented themselves from game to game. Strong guard play is huge in Geno’s offense. And now that the team has made a commitment to a smothering defense, you can see the whole package.

What we don’t know yet is if the team, which relies on a bunch of freshmen and sophomores, will hold it together against the top teams. I think we got a glimpse of what they can do in the game against Tennessee. If they can play like that - every game - and add Paige to the mix…? It give me goosebumps

 

[JoePgh]

I think that the author of the article missed an implied sarcasm emoji in the last comment that he quoted from Geno (after describing the importance of Paige getting mentally right for the tournament): "And Paige being Paige, she'll just be super cooperative."

I didn't see the video, but I can imagine the wry smile on Geno's face as he said that. And all that the smile implied.

 

[diggerfoot]

I think that the author of the article missed an implied sarcasm emoji in the last comment that he quoted from Geno (after describing the importance of Paige getting mentally right for the tournament): "And Paige being Paige, she'll just be super cooperative."

I didn't see the video, but I can imagine the wry smile on Geno's face as he said that. And all that the smile implied.

I saw the video. You are precisely correct with your imagination and inference.

 

[SARG 2011]

Yes, that quote was indeed Geno at his best....Howard missed it

 

[MD#12Fan]

I saw the video. You are precisely correct with your imagination and inference.

Yes, of course it was sarcasm. But there’s a layer below that obvious sarcasm and that is Geno’s respect and awe for Paige’s basketball IQ, team play, and court awareness. I think Geno plays this game out loud with the press in order to hold onto the reins with Paige. He knows that as good as she is, he can still help her be better and he needs some control of Paige in order to have control of the team. Is it possible that through this whole process of recovery, that Geno was able to wrest control of the team back. I am saying that in a positive way. I think Geno has been brilliant the last two years.

 

[Next 12]

My favorite part, and one sometimes forgotten even by Boneyarders:

As mentioned, UConn’s 25-5 record so far includes losses only to NCAA Tournament teams and, if anything, undersells how good it has been this season. The Huskies are ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency, for the best margin in the country per 100 possessions. They are second in the country in field-goal percentage, 17th in rebounding rate, ninth in assist-to-turnover ratio and 14th in block percentage. This is not a team with any obvious weaknesses on either side of the ball.

And they did this without their primary point guard for most of the season.

Guard play was inconsistent in those games after Paige then Nika went down, to say the least. After Evina was able to overcome her grief over a personal tragedy, Christyn accepted her role as a slasher, Nika found her niche as a distributor and defensive terror, and Caroline emerged as a viable fourth guard, Geno had the tools to move people around to cover up whatever issues presented themselves from game to game. Strong guard play is huge in Geno’s offense. And now that the team has made a commitment to a smothering defense, you can see the whole package.

What we don’t know yet is if the team, which relies on a bunch of freshmen and sophomores, will hold it together against the top teams. I think we got a glimpse of what they can do in the game against Tennessee. If they can play like that - every game - and add Paige to the mix…? It give me goosebumps

BRAVO! Well said. That is why you are NO.1 on the Boneyard. I an 79 years old and have been following UCONN for the last 9 years. I love women's basketball and the way they play the game. But, I am not articulate to express all that I love about the game. My comments are mostly as a fan who loves the game. The in depth knowledge of many Posters amazes me . I would love to do the same, but not capable. So I will close with keep up the good postings that I will be happy to read. My sign-off; GO HUSKIES!!! No. 12.

 

[ME Husky Fan]

A lot of interesting numbers in the article, as you might expect from 538. The one I find compelling is that UConn leads the nation in “the differential” between offensive & defensive efficiency, which is the difference in points/100 possessions scored vs points/100 possessions allowed. I believe the last time UConn lead the nation in that category was 2015-16.

This is only because they play in the weak Big East where if they get any more than 2 teams in the big dance, let alone any of them advance, it’ll be a small miracle. Sic...

 

[Redux]

This is only because they play in the weak Big East where if they get any more than 2 teams in the big dance, let alone any of them advance, it’ll be a small miracle. Sic...

There's one person in the back row there who missed your sarcasm.

 

[oldude]

This is only because they play in the weak Big East where if they get any more than 2 teams in the big dance, let alone any of them advance, it’ll be a small miracle. Sic...

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Iowa is home suffering from Creighton's small miracle [enjoyed ME Husky Fan's sarcasm as well]...

But my joy of the day was Baylor getting stomped by South Dakota [61-47]!!! So much for Queen Egbo's boast of, "We still have all the key players! Coaching does not matter!" or words to that effect... Particularly heartening as Baylor was ranked higher than our Huskies for most of the last month of the season...

Coaching does matter on days when some of the players are not playing to their potential, and Geno, CD & company have it 24/7 for our Huskies!

Now if Villanova can drop Michigan tomorrow.....

Seton Hall and Marquette look like they will go far in the WNIT as well {both have home games coming up in the second round, but it is hard to find the WNIT bracket & scores/news....

 

[tchalla1]

Amen, Howard!!!

"To be clear, we’re not living in the time of Breanna Stewart at UConn, where anything close to a loss would have been among the rarest of upsets, especially from her sophomore year on. This is a more limited Huskies group compared with, for instance, the 2016 team, which I would argue is the best of all time."

Very good analysis and comparative stat--however, the 2013-14 team, IMO was the best of all time, which included six players who would make All-American lists: Stewie, Steph. MoJeff; Hartley; KML and Tuck. Greatest compilation of players ever.