UCONN a 5 seed in CBS Bracket, J Palm

[ctchamps]

I think most people expect us to lose at Louisville...which means we'd at best tie with SMU, and their sweep of us would really hinder our ability (even in a 3-team tie, say) to come out on top. For instance, if UConn-Memphis-SMU all tied at 12-6, it goes into mini-conference: UConn 2-2; SMU 3-?, Memphis ?-3. We're already locked into coming in second there.

Now, if we beat Louisville on the road, and finish 13-5, we still may get into the 4-5 game.

Looking at their schedules:

Cincy: Memphis, @Rutgers
UConn: Rutgers, @UL
Louisville: @SMU, UConn
SMU: Louisville, @Memphis
Memphis: @Cincy, SMU

Let's say UConn beats Rutgers and Louisville. That puts them at 13-5, and gives Louisville it's 4th loss. Let's assume Cincy beats Memphis at home and wins at Rutgers. They win the conference at 15-3.

Let's assume SMU wins at home and loses on the road. That makes SMU 13-5. It also drops Louisville to 13-5. Memphis would finish at 12-6. So the conference final standings at the top would be:

Cincy: 15-3
SMU: 13-5
Louisville: 13-5
UConn: 13-5
Memphis: 12-6

SMU would be 2-0 against UConn and 1-1 against Louisville...therefore 3-1
Louisville would be 1-1 against both UConn and SMU...therefore 2-2
UConn would be 1-1 against Louisville, but 0-2 against SMU...therefore 1-3.

Sticking us back in that 4-5 matchup.

Even if we beat Louisville, therefore, we need SMU to drop both their games, or we're in the 4-5 game.

Great analysis. Won't be popular, but great job.

 

[Tenspro2002]

My goodness - you want to go deep into the tourney or win championships and you're worried about a 12 seed play in winner? If you're scared of that, why bother to worry about doing well in the tourney at all?

I want every conceivably advantage I could get at every stage. Just because a team has the ability to make a Final Four run, doesn't mean they can't be derailed in the first round.

If I have the choice of facing a power-5 team that stumbled down the stretch and snuck in, rather than a hot mid-major who just won a game 2 days ago, I'll take the former.

 

[tcf15]

Here's Lunardi's updated bracket for UConn:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

 

[tzznandrew]

Great analysis. Won't be popular, but great job.

Thanks.

 

[nimzovich]

I think most people expect us to lose at Louisville...which means we'd at best tie with SMU, and their sweep of us would really hinder our ability (even in a 3-team tie, say) to come out on top. For instance, if UConn-Memphis-SMU all tied at 12-6, it goes into mini-conference: UConn 2-2; SMU 3-?, Memphis ?-3. We're already locked into coming in second there.

Now, if we beat Louisville on the road, and finish 13-5, we still may get into the 4-5 game.

Looking at their schedules:

Cincy: Memphis, @Rutgers
UConn: Rutgers, @UL
Louisville: @SMU, UConn
SMU: Louisville, @Memphis
Memphis: @Cincy, SMU

Let's say UConn beats Rutgers and Louisville. That puts them at 13-5, and gives Louisville it's 4th loss. Let's assume Cincy beats Memphis at home and wins at Rutgers. They win the conference at 15-3.

Let's assume SMU wins at home and loses on the road. That makes SMU 13-5. It also drops Louisville to 13-5. Memphis would finish at 12-6. So the conference final standings at the top would be:

Cincy: 15-3
SMU: 13-5
Louisville: 13-5
UConn: 13-5
Memphis: 12-6

SMU would be 2-0 against UConn and 1-1 against Louisville...therefore 3-1
Louisville would be 1-1 against both UConn and SMU...therefore 2-2
UConn would be 1-1 against Louisville, but 0-2 against SMU...therefore 1-3.

Sticking us back in that 4-5 matchup.

Even if we beat Louisville, therefore, we need SMU to drop both their games, or we're in the 4-5 game.

Not necessarily.
I think you overlooked another scenario -not likely, but possible.
There is a way SMU can beat Louisville without locking UConn into the 4-5 game.

UConn (vs RU and Ville) and Memphis (vs Cincy and SMU) sweep their remaining games to finish 13-5. Cincy beats RU and finishes 14-4. SMU beats Louisville and both of those teams end up 13-5. Cincy wins the league, with a 4-way tie for 2nd at 13-5.

in the head-to-head tiebreakers,
SMU is 4-2 and awarded 2nd seed.
UConn and Memphis are both 3-3 and UConn wins the tiebreaker for 3rd place (2-0).
Memphis, losing the tiebreaker gets the 4 seed
Louisville at 2-4 would be the 5th seed.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not necessarily.
I think you overlooked another scenario -not likely, but possible.
There is a way SMU can beat Louisville without locking UConn into the 4-5 game.

UConn (vs RU and Ville) and Memphis (vs Cincy and SMU) sweep their remaining games to finish 13-5. Cincy beats RU and finishes 14-4. SMU beats Louisville and both of those teams end up 13-5. Cincy wins the league, with a 4-way tie for 2nd at 13-5.

in the head-to-head tiebreakers,
SMU is 4-2 and awarded 2nd seed.
UConn and Memphis are both 3-3 and UConn wins the tiebreaker for 3rd place (2-0).
Memphis, losing the tiebreaker gets the 4 seed
Louisville at 2-4 would be the 5th seed.

Right. I didn't game out every scenario, so thanks for doing this. Let's just say that I find this particular scenario pretty unlikely. But I hope I'm wrong.