UConn -7.5 | The Boneyard

UConn -7.5

I go alt line on a game like this - I'd move it to 2.5 or 3.5 and just drop the odds a tad - I feel like they'll pull it out, they've risen to the occasion every time...but 7.5 is risky. And they definitely could lose.
 
dogpause said:
Seems like a lot, but the way this team rises to the occasion, it could be another blowout.
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Agreed, with the way Kolek and Marquette are playing lately people seem to be saying it will be a one possession game at the end. It could be but I also could see us winning by 15.

Team seems laser focused and while we've been great we've still yet to play our best game.
 
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superjohn said:
Agreed, with the way Kolek and Marquette are playing lately people seem to be saying it will be a one possession game at the end. It could be but I also could see us winning by 15.

Team seems laser focused and while we've been great we've still yet to play our best game.
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I agree with this. With teams at this level, the difference between a blowout and a loss can be a couple made threes, a bad pass, or one bad rotation. These are both really well-coached, skilled, and refined teams. Can't be taking bad shots, going after boards soft, or missing rotations. Gotta be locked in.
 
A line like helps my confidence. I think we get a nice win, we seem to be coming in firing on all cylinders.
 
Even if we play seven points better....running out the clock usually costs a few points. But if the Huskies can make a couple of big runs, it's a reasonable line.
 
We beat them by double that last year. It was over at halftime. I remember leaving unimpressed and thought they were going to regress from there. So that's an L for me.
 
Must be based in we are up 3 or 4 they have to start fouling late and continue to get us to about 7 or 8. Won’t want to have big money on this happening because I wouldn’t be able to enjoy the game.
 
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We are capable of blowing out anyone, but Marquette is hot and looks like the top 5 teams they were in November.

Last year I'd probably take Marquette ML (I'm guessing +230 or so for tomorrow) on the expectation that we can't win close games, but that's not really been an issue this year, so I'm probably more inclined to just take the points.

In reality, I'll probably use DK's insured parlay on Marquette +7.5 + Marquette Over their point total + UConn Under their point total.

I also plan to wait for us to take an early lead and get Marquette +10.5 live so that even if they foul us at the end they'll still cover.
 
Vegas really likes us. That’s a big number against the #4 team in the country. I would expect it to drop by tipoff
 
wow. big spread. disrespecting the #4 team. UConn at Kansas was much closer spread. Not touching this as this is more motivation for them to play hard.
 
There are few teams out there with a guy like Kolek. Sure, we kicked their butts in the game at home last year. But they also beat us in the two other games. And in watching a couple of their games recently they have regained their confidence, and Kolek has his swagger back. Giving 7 1/2 in this game is a tall order with a team who can hit threes like they do.

Could we win by double digits? Sure. Would I bet my life on it? Not a chance. Tread cautiously those of you who want to bet on us tomorrow.
 
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Something to remember: last 3x at home we’ve won by an average of 14. Even when they were beating us, at home we’ve handled them.

I actually don’t expect that, but it leads me to more fully understand the bigger line.
 
I'm seeing a lot of wide spreads for better home teams out there tomorrow. But Saturdays are always crazy.

Houston giving 11.5 to Texas
Auburn giving 7.5 to Kentucky
Alabama giving 9.5 to Texas A&M
UNC giving 11.5 to VA Tech
Iowa St giving 7.5 to Texas Tech

I'd say UConn / Marquette is the narrowest of the bunch, especially in seeding.
 
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I think UConn will roll- Marquette doesn’t have the same defense tenacity as last year- would expect a 12-15 point win unless the refs get in the way
 
When I saw it first I thought it was to big of a number. But if you think about it and consider Marquette is a good not great offensive team, we could make it very difficult for them to score. They are better defensively but if AK starts hot that will be a problem for them. Also Ighodaro is mobile and crafty so Donovan needs to figure out a way to stay on floor during shot fakes. If he can’t stay out of foul trouble we may have to go small. Unless Samson is locked in I could see him having trouble recovering on his hedges. But we match up well with them so if we get hot it could get out of hand.
 
espn.jpg

Yeah, it's ESPN, so we must be doomed.
 
I’m done prognosticating this season. I’ll put my 7-4 ATS record in the books for 23/24. Every game means too much for me to worry about spreads from this point forward.

Good luck to all.
 
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