UConn -5.5 vs St. John's | The Boneyard

UConn -5.5 vs St. John's

Online I just saw 8.5 but maybe that’s old?
 
A huddle clips show from both benches would be great and I don’t think Hurley was happy with the closeness of the last game with them. Let’s shoot better!
 
We also didn’t have Clingan last matchup and IIRC Castle wasn’t back in the starting lineup yet. Alex was in his shooting slump still. Samson held his own against Soriano.

Now we’re healthy and the team is clicking. I’d choose us to cover.
 
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I can’t bet this cuz I’m in NY but I would say this is a tough line, I see 4-5 point win. Maybe go ML.
 
Our home court is worth close to 4, which would suggest a neutral pick'em based on the last game. Johnnies have a 3.5 HCA, but I'd probably round that down with the Garden being a 2nd home for us. So call it Johnnies -3 at their place.

BPR has Clingan worth more than 5 points. So based purely on last game I'd make us 2.5 point favorites. KenPom has us 4 point faves, Evan Miya -3.7, Torvik -2.1.

Johnnies highly motivated, I'd take the 5.5 for sure.
 
That seems about right, even a dominant game is likely around a 10 point lead given St John's style. Which still leaves a backdoor cover open
 
I am a broken record on this, but I hate betting underdogs against us with spreads in the 3.5-8.5 range.

Just like the Providence game, it's plausible that even if the game is close throughout, we end up pushing the lead to 8-9.

But it's also plausible we lose this game. I would either take St. John's ML or tease the line up to UConn -8.5 for extra value.

Being in NY I can't bet this game, so it's moot anyway.
 
MSG would seem to be almost a wash. I guess an initial -1 for St Johns is fair. We’re the better team, we are playing better than we were when we first played, and Clingan/Steph are fully healthy. Karaban is a question mark. I’d get it down to 3.5 and parlay with a 1st half line. But, I can’t bet it as i’m in NY as well.
 
Wait for in-game to see which way it breaks. Johnnies +7.5. and/or us -2.5.
 
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We just shot 17% from three in our last game. And one of our best shooters might be out.
 
Palatine said:
We just shot 17% from three in our last game. And one of our best shooters might be out.
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I haven't seen anything about someone not playing. I assume you mean Karaban but is he gtd?
 
AK being a game time decision. Spencer's stroke from 3 is off. Shooting in a big arena like MSG can be an adjustment. This one looks more to me like a meat grinder with Newton/Castle driving and drawing down the stretch and our FT shooting and basketball IQ winning out in the end.

Too close to call on the spread. I'll pass.

***The Deepster is 7-4 ATS on the season.
 
Deepster said:
AK being a game time decision. Spencer's stroke from 3 is off. Shooting in a big arena like MSG can be an adjustment. This one looks more to me like a meat grinder with Newton/Castle driving and drawing down the stretch and our FT shooting and basketball IQ winning out in the end.

Too close to call on the spread. I'll pass.

***The Deepster is 7-4 ATS on the season.
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We made 17 3’s the game before. I think Karaban plays. We won’t shot 17% from 3
 
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I got a bad feeling about this one.

The mojo has grown murky and mysterious. A foreboding heaviness weighs in the air like a sultry summer's day on the verge of a downpour.

Only it's not humidity hanging in the air...it's fate.
 
AntG168 said:
We made 17 3’s the game before. I think Karaban plays. We won’t shot 17% from 3
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Especially if they're wide open / uncontested 3's

But I think the Johnies will cover us better
 
Palatine said:
We only beat them by four at home.

But Xavier beat them by eleven and we beat Xavier by twenty thousand.

So it sounds about right.
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So seeing how we are playing them at home again and we have The Big D for this one it seems the spread should be higher
 
I see spread dropped to 3.5.

Is the spread including the supposed home crowd advantage for SJU ?
 
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Probably AK status. But I am worried. Pitino will have his team ready to play. The crowd could have a huge impact. If it plays as a neutral court then we have the advantage. I think it is going to be a game that has a tourneybfeel to it. Because of the venue and if St Johns hopes to get in the tourney they need a win like this. And another win against Marquette or Creighton. Can’t wait should be fun.
 
I wouldn't touch this game in a million years.

An outright UConn win I expect.

Win by 6 on the road in a game we expect to be a rock fight with control of score 100% dependent on how refs call the game? No way.
 
UConn Esq said:
If you ask it… Borges will answer..
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Tenspro2002 said:
I am a broken record on this, but I hate betting underdogs against us with spreads in the 3.5-8.5 range.

Just like the Providence game, it's plausible that even if the game is close throughout, we end up pushing the lead to 8-9.

But it's also plausible we lose this game. I would either take St. John's ML or tease the line up to UConn -8.5 for extra value.

Being in NY I can't bet this game, so it's moot anyway.
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Well, I couldn't bet on this game, which was fine, but probably would have extracted some value at UConn -8.5 +200 or whatever + St. John's ML at +200 or whatever.
 
JustbrewitMan said:
Tight first half, coast to an easy cover of the -3.5 tip-off line. Even without Karaban and foul-riddled 5-position the whole 2nd half.

Great team! @Deepster missed out on some good value.
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Fair point. I get squirrelly on big arenas. I feel like it takes teams time to get used to the views. My bad. I went against my hammer time philosophy. It won’t happen again.
 
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