UConn -4.5 vs UNC

[HeGotGame]

Where I expected it to be given the Kenpom and Torvik numbers.

Hard to have a firm opinion given the uncertainty in Cam's and Castle's health.

 

[RichCTBB]

Where I expected it to be given the Kenpom and Torvik numbers.

Hard to have a firm opinion given the uncertainty in Cam's and Castle's health.

I was hoping we'd see some media availability from the staff and the players today

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

If I’m going with anything I’m going with the under. Don’t think both teams are scoring in the high 70s.

Our defense is too good and our offense is questionable with the noted injuries.

 

[REB1094]

4.5 is a bit generous considering we don’t know if 1 starter is going to play, and 2 others are hurt

That said…
Hammer it

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

If I’m going with anything I’m going with the under. Don’t think both teams are scoring in the high 70s.

Our defense is too good and our offense is questionable with the noted injuries.

I mean Tennessee's defense was supposed to be good on paper and Carolina put up 100

 

[GotNets?]

If I’m going with anything I’m going with the under. Don’t think both teams are scoring in the high 70s.

Our defense is too good and our offense is questionable with the noted injuries.

UNC put up 60 points in the first half a week ago… against a very good Tennessee D.

This is going to be a harder game than we think. They look better than expected.

 

[auror]

If I’m going with anything I’m going with the under. Don’t think both teams are scoring in the high 70s.

Our defense is too good and our offense is questionable with the noted injuries.

UNC has scored at least 77 points in every game, only 2 games in the 70s (and they shot sub 30% from 3 in those games). So if they shoot anywhere close to average from 3 they are likely to be in the 80s. This is very much an outscore the other team kinda game. The 152 total reflects that.

I'm seeing 3.5 on FanDuel now and not up yet on Draftkings.

 

[HooperScooper]

I was hoping we'd see some media availability from the staff and the players today

There is

 

[auror]

Considering our injury statuses, I'm definitely leaning towards UNC and the points, at least at 4.5 (3.5 makes me want to stay away).

 

[gwhuskyfan]

I actually think this is a tougher match up than UNC. Easer environment, but tougher match up... just my opinion

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

UNC has scored at least 77 points in every game, only 2 games in the 70s (and they shot sub 30% from 3 in those games). So if they shoot anywhere close to average from 3 they are likely to be in the 80s. This is very much an outscore the other team kinda game. The 152 total reflects that.

I'm seeing 3.5 on FanDuel now and not up yet on Draftkings.

If it’s an outscore the other team kind of game that isn’t good for our chances.

Texas was pretty much the same way though and we held them to 71. That game pretty much nailed the total too (81,71).

I have full trust in our defense being the best they’ll see while remaining cautious about the offense.

I’d agree with you on leaning UNC spread wise, but there’s no way in hell I’ll even think about wanting them to cover while watching it with my boy who’s a diehard Tarheel. Been waiting years for this game.

Score was 68 68 at the end of regulation against Nova fwiw.

 

[auror]

I actually think this is a tougher match up than UNC. Easer environment, but tougher match up... just my opinion

They don't have the stretch center to pull our center away from the rim, which should help our defense considerably. And there's an easy person to guard with Cam on Ryan (Ryan is banged up, too). At guard it's going to be a classic strength/size vs. quickness with Newton/Castle against Davis/Cadeau. Ingram is skilled and athletic, but he's not as disruptive defensively as KJ Adams.

It all just looks like to me that both teams will be able to drive into the paint. Clingan should protect it better than Bacot, but the health/mobility is a major ?. They love to drive and kick and we love to run our sets to get open 3s, so it'll likely come down to how both teams shoot, even more than most games do. Keeping Bacot as physical as he is off the glass post penetration/help is going to be tough with Karaban banged up, though Castle might be huge in that area.

 

[RichCTBB]

There is

Found it

 

[UConnSwag11]

-5

 

[Huskyforlife]

I’m afraid our offense won’t keep up with theirs. Spencer playing on 2 bad feet, Karaban already struggling and now dealing with a finger, Castle on a minutes restriction. I’d take the points tbh.

 

[Waquoit]

A game like this I could never bet. I'd hate to win by 4 and be sad.

 

[AdamaNation]

If it’s an outscore the other team kind of game that isn’t good for our chances.

Texas was pretty much the same way though and we held them to 71. That game pretty much nailed the total too (81,71).

I have full trust in our defense being the best they’ll see while remaining cautious about the offense.

I’d agree with you on leaning UNC spread wise, but there’s no way in hell I’ll even think about wanting them to cover while watching it with my boy who’s a diehard Tarheel. Been waiting years for this game.

Score was 68 68 at the end of regulation against Nova fwiw.

Sadly every game is outscore the other team if winning is in the plans.

 

[ValleyGuy]

Don’t want to hear any of the feel good moral victory stuff like after the Kansas game. UConn is 0-4 against Kansas and 1-4 against UNC. These games matter. There will be a lot of UNC blue in that arena tonight. This is a must win. Cannot go 0-2 against UNC and Kansas coming off a National Championship year.

 

[Kitaman]

I found this 'Self adjustment' interesting, and illustrates good game planning. I didn't notice in-game but now I see it. Hubert is not on Self level but I'm sure he too has tricks:

 

[Tenspro2002]

This is not a must-win game by any stretch, but could put us in a tough spot if we're having to go into Seattle to get a signature top 10 win. And, yes, championship teams back it up.

I'm always wary of small lines against us, given that we tend to win easily (10+) or lose narrowly. I would think about teasing up to UConn -8.5 or so, or taking UNC moneyline (+205 currently) if you can stomach it. That seems to be better value than either side of the spread.

I also favor the Under, despite UNC's penchant for scoring and apathy about defending. I think we are more likely to control pace and, like against Kansas, will favor keeping the pace slow.

I already put a little on UNC +5.5 and a parlay of UNC +5.5 + Under 153 (despite what I said earlier about not loving action against the spread), might do a little more later, or live.

 

[selles]

I found this 'Self adjustment' interesting, and illustrates good game planning. I didn't notice in-game but now I see it. Hubert is not on Self level but I'm sure he too has tricks:

Ah, there's the Samson tackle at 1:52. Unbelievable that wasn't called.

 

[NickDanger]

Are there games where you don’t try to outscore the other team?

UNC has scored at least 77 points in every game, only 2 games in the 70s (and they shot sub 30% from 3 in those games). So if they shoot anywhere close to average from 3 they are likely to be in the 80s. This is very much an outscore the other team kinda game. The 152 total reflects that.

I'm seeing 3.5 on FanDuel now and not up yet on Draftkings.

e

 

[ValleyGuy]

This is not a must-win game by any stretch, but could put us in a tough spot if we're having to go into Seattle to get a signature top 10 win. And, yes, championship teams back it up.

Yes these games are must wins. I cannot disagree more with that statement.

 

[auror]

Are there games where you don’t try to outscore the other team?

There are games where you try to keep them from scoring more than the other team keeps you from scoring.

 

[auror]

The line has moved to UConn -5.5 on FanDuel and -6 on Draftkings. That seems...high considering our banged-up-ness.