UConn -31.5

[Leebo]

Huh? The score was 6-4, am I wrong? 5+ minutes into the game.

He's saying that somehow your memory doesn't match the truth of the stats.

 

[CallMeBruce]

if this is true, they 'missed' (paid for) the action of everyone who decided to bet uconn once it dropped . i understand what you think your point is, but vegas doesnt put out lines they think are FIFTEEN points off in a throwaway dec 23 noon game just to trap casual bettors or get equal action

Yeah, they're not going to get everyone, nor are they going to peg every score exactly. The point is that they want to set the betting line at a place where they're definitely going to make money, and in this case, they did. The people who missed are the goobers in this thread who couldn't imagine UConn being able to defend against a terrible CCSU team.

 

[Chuck]

if this is true, they 'missed' (paid for) the action of everyone who decided to bet uconn once it dropped . i understand what you think your point is, but Vegas doesn't put out lines they think are FIFTEEN points off in a throwaway dec 23 noon game just to trap casual bettors or get equal action

My understanding is that they do just that (try to get equal action). That ensures they get the vig. Anything else would be Vegas getting involved in the bet. Good drug dealers don't partake in their product.

My guess would be that the number was too high and too much money was coming in on Central to cover. They needed to entice some money to UConn so they dropped the line. We can't really tell if "Vegas knew" unless we see how the money came in. If more than 50% was on UConn, they lose. If more than 50% came in on Central, they win, but may've just been lucky. The closer to 50/50 the more of a win it was for them (even if they made less money). The fact that UConn won by significantly more than the spread is irrelevant.

... and that's why I don't bet! I'm a little happy when I win, but I'm very pissed when I lose.

 

[UChusky916]

The people who missed are the goobers in this thread who couldn't imagine UConn being able to defend against a terrible CCSU team.

Heh. Goobers.

 

[Jerry1714]

My understanding is that they do just that (try to get equal action). That ensures they get the vig. Anything else would be Vegas getting involved in the bet. Good drug dealers don't partake in their product.

My guess would be that the number was too high and too much money was coming in on Central to cover. They needed to entice some money to UConn so they dropped the line. We can't really tell if "Vegas knew" unless we see how the money came in. If more than 50% was on UConn, they lose. If more than 50% came in on Central, they win, but may've just been lucky. The closer to 50/50 the more of a win it was for them (even if they made less money). The fact that UConn won by significantly more than the spread is irrelevant.

... and that's why I don't bet! I'm a little happy when I win, but I'm very pissed when I lose.

Crazy how many wrong insights people have on betting.

The majority of the money was UConn by any source you look at, 64% at Sportsbook for example. Simply because a line moves does not mean more money is being bet on that side, a lot of other factors go into it.

Also, it not always the intention of the line to get 50/50 action, Vegas takes sides and understands how the public will bet.

 

[Chuck]

Crazy how many wrong insights people have on betting.

The majority of the money was UConn by any source you look at, 64% at Sportsbook for example. Simply because a line moves does not mean more money is being bet on that side, a lot of other factors go into it.

Also, it not always the intention of the line to get 50/50 action, Vegas takes sides and understands how the public will bet.

Fully agree that I don't fully understand how the lines work. If I did I'd probably be in a different profession! I'm pretty impressed with the math that has to go into book making.

I assumed that Vegas (not the neighborhood bookie) would have to go the 50/50 route (on money bet, not number of bets) as a starting point. Especially since most are public companies and all are regulated entities. I can see where they can try to screw the popular team (UConn in this case) by setting an extra big line because they know fans will still bet on their team no matter the spread, but then smart money would just play the underdog every time. I'd assume smart money bets more than fans, so they have to factor that in. I also assume that they have a range of acceptable derivation from 50% based upon the vig. Maybe they can go to 60/40 and still make money and factoring in their knowledge hopefully have a belief that the 60% are wrong for a home run win.

So don't take this as an internet fight (I've avoided that as a Boneyarder except for Nelson calling me a troll in my first post). I'm truly curious what the other factors are, and if they are really just a small adjustment from 50/50 or is Vegas really betting on the games?

 

[champs99and04]

Vegas definitely bets on games from what I understand. Otherwise, you wouldn't see Vegas taking losses so often when an assortment of favorites win/cover. They can secure a profit by allowing the public to set the line, but a lot of the money lies in Vegas having more information than everybody else.