UConn -2 v. Maryland

[McLovin]

How many of those games featured Bouknight, Jackson and Cole once he learned how to score? We lose slow games to teams that shoot 3s well. St. John’s, Creighton all three times, Nova.

With our full team since Bouk came back, we scored 70+ in every win except Seton Hall, which was 69. In our recent wins counting backwards: 94, 98, 69, 80, 70, 73, 80. In our losses we scored 56, 60, 59.

Interesting note, Martin lead us in scoring 4 times and we won all 4. Cole lead us in scoring 4 times and we lost 3 of those. Nothing more than an indication that if Cole is our main guy it’s because others aren’t getting it done.

Literally every win I mentioned featured all 3 of them.

Our losses against good teams that can score (Creighton and Nova) had all 3 playing in 3 of 4.

Not suggesting we shouldn’t try to score points. If we can score 100 that would be great. But we have proven we don’t win games when we have to rely on our offense. We have proven we can win with our defense.

If we play a fast pace and Maryland is hitting their 3s we are going to have to score a bunch to keep up. Show me 1 game this year where we have proven we can get into a track meet AND win. This team isn’t built for high scoring, high pace games.

 

[bendm]

It looked like he had VCU as the favorite because they are listed first. All the other 7 seeds were first. Agree Oregon is the biggest favorite.

dont think the order matters, just who the (-) comes after

 

[Marat]

Saturday can't get here fast enough. This already feels like a long week.
When the team wins, they usually not only cover the spread but by a margin. I feel like UConn will bounce back nicely after the last game.

 

[UconnFanDC]

Man, I gotta study up on MD. I don't tnink this is a cakewalk at all and we need to be ready to smack it down and not stop.

Far from a cake walk. We can win but need to make shots. Shooting 30% will get us ran out of the building fast

 

[uconngb]

Completely disagree. We nearly scored 100 points in two of our last 3. If they are a bad offensive rebounding team than we need to grab boards and push the pace relentlessly. There are few teams with our athleticism and depth. UConn loses slow rock fights. That’s how we played without Bouk and Jackson. That’s ugly UConn.

It’s one of the reasons I think we can surprise people. This team is nothing like what it was.

I agree. Depth and athleticism are definite strengths of ours. We give up both of those advantages when we play crawl ball.

 

[Storrs South]

They are 11-1 when they score 10 or more fastbreak points (half of these came in February alone, the one loss was Nova)

4-6 when they score less than 10 (includes all 3 Creighton games, USC, and both games against Seton Hall).

 

[polycom]

@HuskyHawk & @Giddyup5 , you're entitled to your opinions but our 3 best wins this year how many points did we allow? USC 58 points, @ Georgetown 57 points, @ Seton Hall 58 points.

Our losses this year, how many points did we allow? 76, 74, 74, 80, 70, 68, 59

We need to limit Maryland's possessions, they shoot a ton of 3s. They also are a good defensive team. We have to keep them under 60 if we want to win. In the 60s we have a shot. Over 70 and it's not good. The less possessions Maryland has = less shots we have to make. Making shots is not our strength. Defense is our strength.

Defense wins in March. Always has, always will.

Edit: My prediction... UConn 64, Maryland 56

Considering you’ve shown you don’t understand basketball, I’ll fade this.

 

[McLovin]

Considering you’ve shown you don’t understand basketball, I’ll fade this.

My DraftKings sports book balance says different, but best of luck to you.

 

[87Xfer]

Literally every win I mentioned featured all 3 of them.

Our losses against good teams that can score (Creighton and Nova) had all 3 playing in 3 of 4.

Not suggesting we shouldn’t try to score points. If we can score 100 that would be great. But we have proven we don’t win games when we have to rely on our offense. We have proven we can win with our defense.

If we play a fast pace and Maryland is hitting their 3s we are going to have to score a bunch to keep up. Show me 1 game this year where we have proven we can get into a track meet AND win. This team isn’t built for high scoring, high pace games.

I just want to say that I'm appreciating this back-and-forth. The solid points made on both sides illustrate that there is no easy answer, and it hasn't degraded into a crapshow post. Carry on!

 

[87Xfer]

Considering you’ve shown you don’t understand basketball, I’ll fade this.

I spoke literally a minute too soon about the crapshow. polycom to the rescue :-(

 

[McLovin]

I very well could be wrong about this and people saying play fast could be right. I'm just looking at it from the perspective of how we have won, not only this year, but in Marches past. Defense wins championships and we are built for defense. Seems counterintuitive to get into a fast paced game with a team that shoots tons of 3s, when we have proven we can't consistently score against quality defenses.

 

[McLovin]

They are 11-1 when they score 10 or more fastbreak points (half of these came in February alone, the one loss was Nova)

4-6 when they score less than 10 (includes all 3 Creighton games, USC, and both games against Seton Hall).

Curious if you can do the same analysis but when we give up 10 or more fast break points? I have no idea what it would look like record wise, but would be curious to see what the data says.

 

[Storrs South]

Curious if you can do the same analysis but when we give up 10 or more fast break points? I have no idea what it would look like record wise, but would be curious to see what the data says.

When they conceded 10+ points on the fastbreak, they were 5-3 (includes first Creighton game, SJU, but also Xavier, and Seton Hall loss at home; two of these wins were CCSU & Hartford, the other two were @ Marquette, @ Butler)

When they conceded less than 10 points on the fastbreak, they were 9-4 (includes loss to Nova, two losses to Creighton, but also the win streak that ended the regular season when Bouk came back)

If we take the Xavier game until now since that is when they have been playing their best:

they went 7-2 over that stretch, in 6 of those games they were double digits in fastbreak points, in 2 of those games they conceded double digits in fastbreak points.

Home v. Marquette was the most lopsided with 17 v. 1 in fastbreak points.

There were 5 games all season where both teams scored in double digit fastbreak points:
CCSU, Hartford, @ Marquette, Xavier, Depaul @ MSG. UConn was 5-0 in these games granted look at the competition.

 

[McLovin]

Thanks @Storrs South , appreciate the data.

Fast break points probably isn't the best way to look at it. When you are playing a high powered offensive team, the point of the game when you can't match the offensive output is to limit their total possessions.

Maryland's offensive efficiency ratio is 46th in the country. Here are our results & points allowed against other to 50 offenses.

Wins: USC 58 points, Xavier 72 points, Seton Hall 58 points (62 points allowed avg. in wins vs top 50 offenses).

Losses: Creighton 76 points, St Johns 74 points, Creighton 74 points, Seton Hall 80 points, Nova 68 points, Creighton 59 points (72 points allowed avg in losses vs top 50).

We only average 72 points per game, across all games that include the cupcakes. We don't score enough against highly efficient offensive teams to wins in a shootout. We have won 3 games all year while giving up over 70 points - CCSU (we scored 102), Georgetown (we scored 98) and Xavier (we scored 80).

Like I said, Maryland loves to shoot the 3. The faster the pace, the more 3s they get to take. The more 3s they make, the more points we need to score. Trying to beat a team while giving up over 70 points is not something we are equipped to do.

FWIW in 2011 other teams only averaged 58 ppg against us and in 2014 it was 63 ppg in the NCAAs. Slow defensive slugfests is how we won our last 2 championships. It's the way our team is built this year too. I don't know why people think we need to rewrite the playbook and try to play uptempo and drop 100 on Maryland Saturday to win. Would love for us to drop 100, but if we do it's because we shoot 60% from the field, not because we got into a 100-96 shootout.

 

[Edward Sargent]

They are 11-1 when they score 10 or more fastbreak points (half of these came in February alone, the one loss was Nova)

4-6 when they score less than 10 (includes all 3 Creighton games, USC, and both games against Seton Hall).

JC thought we should have run more too. I think it will come down to rebounding

 

[HuskyHawk]

Literally every win I mentioned featured all 3 of them.

Our losses against good teams that can score (Creighton and Nova) had all 3 playing in 3 of 4.

Not suggesting we shouldn’t try to score points. If we can score 100 that would be great. But we have proven we don’t win games when we have to rely on our offense. We have proven we can win with our defense.

If we play a fast pace and Maryland is hitting their 3s we are going to have to score a bunch to keep up. Show me 1 game this year where we have proven we can get into a track meet AND win. This team isn’t built for high scoring, high pace games.

When we are playing great Defense, we play faster not slower.

 

[McLovin]

When we are playing great Defense, we play faster not slower.

I agree that our offense was 1000X better when we actually moved the ball, especially when we screened for shooters instead of running the dumb weave for 25 seconds and jacking up a shot in iso.

But this is March.We need to realize we can't win a track meet.

And this is my bad if I wasn't clear... By track meet I don't mean we can't get out and take an open transition layup. We need to do that when we can. But we can't play uptempo shooting with 20 seconds left in the shot clock. We are playing real teams that can score consistently, not DePaul, Butler or Marquette. We need to be deliberate and super efficient on offense in order to limit Marylands offensive opportunities (plus defensive rebounding).

 

[Kolumbo]

revisited my old friend, the cbs sports pick'em. here are the screenshots of the screenshots of the comparison tool.

 

[Kolumbo]

From the espn tool.

Huskies: After some midseason struggles, the Huskies really hit their stride down the stretch. The return of leading scorer James Bouknight (19.4 PPG) has reignited the offense, but UConn's biggest strength remains their defense. Their intensity on that end of court will keep them competitive in any game, but in order to make a deep run, the Huskies will need more consistent offensive production from R.J. Cole (12.7 PPG).

Losers: Maryland can fill it up from deep (well above national average this season in 3FG% and percentage of points that come from distance), but they are just average on the backboards and among the worst teams in the field at causing turnovers. Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins give the Terps an experienced backcourt with size, and they earned some quality road wins at Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota this season.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Literally every win I mentioned featured all 3 of them.

Our losses against good teams that can score (Creighton and Nova) had all 3 playing in 3 of 4.

Not suggesting we shouldn’t try to score points. If we can score 100 that would be great. But we have proven we don’t win games when we have to rely on our offense. We have proven we can win with our defense.

If we play a fast pace and Maryland is hitting their 3s we are going to have to score a bunch to keep up. Show me 1 game this year where we have proven we can get into a track meet AND win. This team isn’t built for high scoring, high pace games.

Georgetown last week. Track meet.

 

[Scot-e]

So everyone has to play well and we win?
DOOMED!

 

[HuskyHawk]

I agree that our offense was 1000X better when we actually moved the ball, especially when we screened for shooters instead of running the dumb weave for 25 seconds and jacking up a shot in iso.

But this is March.We need to realize we can't win a track meet.

And this is my bad if I wasn't clear... By track meet I don't mean we can't get out and take an open transition layup. We need to do that when we can. But we can't play uptempo shooting with 20 seconds left in the shot clock. We are playing real teams that can score consistently, not DePaul, Butler or Marquette. We need to be deliberate and super efficient on offense in order to limit Marylands offensive opportunities (plus defensive rebounding).

I believe, with everything I have, that our offense is vastly more efficient earlier in the shot clock. We are at our worst shooting late in the shot clock. We are bad at half court offense.

I look at Maryland and see a team that rebounds poorly, which will lead to defensive rebounds. We must, we must, push the ball up court quickly and tack them before they set their defense. I want Bouk, If he must face the B1G DPOY to do so when the defense isn’t set. To do it transition. That will lead to fouls and baskets made. Martin is a much better in that kind of game as well. Our offensive rebounding can be devastating in a transition game.

I get the idea, but I think our team is built to play fast. It has to play fast or it dies on the offensive end. We lost against Creighton because they forced that style on us.

 

[Giddyup5]

I agree that our offense was 1000X better when we actually moved the ball, especially when we screened for shooters instead of running the dumb weave for 25 seconds and jacking up a shot in iso.

But this is March.We need to realize we can't win a track meet.

And this is my bad if I wasn't clear... By track meet I don't mean we can't get out and take an open transition layup. We need to do that when we can. But we can't play uptempo shooting with 20 seconds left in the shot clock. We are playing real teams that can score consistently, not DePaul, Butler or Marquette. We need to be deliberate and super efficient on offense in order to limit Marylands offensive opportunities (plus defensive rebounding).

Appreciate the logical discussion.

There are so many “stats” that can back up either theory.

My main reason for transition offense is to free up Polley, Gaffney, and Martin offensively. Polley can get many more open looks in secondary breaks vs trying to run around screens. Gaf and Martin play much better offensively when they are going down hill.

In the half court we should run through Sanogo and Bouk obviously.

 

[HuskyHawk]

dont think the order matters, just who the (-) comes after

So VT is 2 point favorites over Florida? I think not.

 

[Vuce]

JC thought we should have run more too. I think it will come down to rebounding

I feel good about the rebounding part. We are a very good rebounding team, Maryland is not. After the rebounding debacle against Creighton, Hurley will have the team’s attention. I think UConn will clean up on the glass. On the defensive side just play tough to get them to miss some shots so we can grab the boards. Cannot wait for this game!