UConn -2 tonight | The Boneyard

UConn -2 tonight

navery12 said:
Good team who's been playing well and is at home. There's a general wariness and hesitation on this board to feel good about this UConn team that the public perception doesn't match
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But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.
 
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I have a hard time believing we have a better than 50% chance of winning tonight myself, but a reasonable line of thinking might be:

UConn played Villanova even in the second half of the last game on the road. One could argue it might have been a much closer game if Squirrel and Sanogo hadn't picked up 2 fouls each in the first 4 minutes. If they can avoid the foul trouble and get the homecourt boost, they are likely to pull out a close victory.
 
This will just add to the confusion
 

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8893 said:
But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.
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I'm not saying I expect us to blow them out or anything, or even necessarily win the game. Those are all valid points, but is exactly what I was getting at with my initial post. As UConn fans we tend to focus on why Nova is a scary matchup and ignore the other side. They're 7-4 on the road this year, and the majority of those wins have been close games. UConn has also largely played close games against all the good teams so this was always likely to be a pickem
 
I hear Bouknight loves the college life.
Maybe he came back and is suiting up tonight ?
 
8893 said:
But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.
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He got hurt with like 6 mins left in the game.
 
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navery12 said:
I'm not saying I expect us to blow them out or anything, or even necessarily win the game. Those are all valid points, but is exactly what I was getting at with my initial post. As UConn fans we tend to focus on why Nova is a scary matchup and ignore the other side. They're 7-4 on the road this year, and the majority of those wins have been close games. UConn has also largely played close games against all the good teams so this was always likely to be a pickem
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Looking at it empirically I get the rationale for a close game, maybe even a pick 'em; but I just don't get the rationale for us to be favored, even accounting for your points.

And I am going tonight and therefore expect us to win, but I don't think Vegas knows that @August_West hooked me up.
 
Homecourt in college basketball is massive. Auburn, on Saturday, the #2 team in the country was a 1 point favorite at 16-10 Florida, the same Florida team they blew out at home earlier in the year.
 
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You never know why the lines are what they are just assume that whatever your first thought is wrong
 
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navery12 said:
Good team who's been playing well and is at home. There's a general wariness and hesitation on this board to feel good about this UConn team that the public perception doesn't match
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Couldn’t have said it better myself. I’m guilty of that as well. Last 5-6 games I couldn’t believe how much the handicappers loved UConn
 
We can ABSOLUTELY win this game tonight. We have all the pieces to do so. Nova is simply a bad matchup for us, but it is something we can overcome by matching their attention to detail (limiting turnovers and bad shots, staying out of foul trouble, and playing every 30 seconds on Defensive end likes its the last)
 
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8893 said:
But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.
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You could say that exact same thing for Xavier and look how that turned out. They were without Kunkel that game. Nova losing Gillespie for 10 minutes up 15 wasn't a big factor.
 
August_West said:
We can ABSOLUTELY win this game tonight. We have all the pieces to do so. Nova is simply a bad matchup for us, but it is something we can overcome by matching their attention to detail (limiting turnovers and bad shots, staying out of foul trouble, and playing every 30 seconds on Defensive end likes its the last)
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I like to think we're a bad matchup for Nova (when we're not in foul trouble)

Flip the script!
 
8893 said:
But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.
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Didn't we have two bigs in foul trouble from jump street? That's worth a few points.
 
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