UConn -2 tonight

[8893]

Can someone explain why we are favored?

 

[UconnU]

Some sites have it as -2.5 I don’t get it

 

[MexicoHusky]

Maybe Gillespie's gf broke up with him and the bookies got a hot tip

 

[nadavtheman]

Vegas always knows

 

[navery12]

Good team who's been playing well and is at home. There's a general wariness and hesitation on this board to feel good about this UConn team that the public perception doesn't match

 

[8893]

Good team who's been playing well and is at home. There's a general wariness and hesitation on this board to feel good about this UConn team that the public perception doesn't match

But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.

 

[Get a Job]

I have a hard time believing we have a better than 50% chance of winning tonight myself, but a reasonable line of thinking might be:

UConn played Villanova even in the second half of the last game on the road. One could argue it might have been a much closer game if Squirrel and Sanogo hadn't picked up 2 fouls each in the first 4 minutes. If they can avoid the foul trouble and get the homecourt boost, they are likely to pull out a close victory.

 

[August_West]

This will just add to the confusion

 

[navery12]

But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.

I'm not saying I expect us to blow them out or anything, or even necessarily win the game. Those are all valid points, but is exactly what I was getting at with my initial post. As UConn fans we tend to focus on why Nova is a scary matchup and ignore the other side. They're 7-4 on the road this year, and the majority of those wins have been close games. UConn has also largely played close games against all the good teams so this was always likely to be a pickem

 

[Mister P]

I hear Bouknight loves the college life.
Maybe he came back and is suiting up tonight ?

 

[HeGotGame]

But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.

He got hurt with like 6 mins left in the game.

 

[wheelerdog]

Can someone explain why we are favored?

No

 

[8893]

I'm not saying I expect us to blow them out or anything, or even necessarily win the game. Those are all valid points, but is exactly what I was getting at with my initial post. As UConn fans we tend to focus on why Nova is a scary matchup and ignore the other side. They're 7-4 on the road this year, and the majority of those wins have been close games. UConn has also largely played close games against all the good teams so this was always likely to be a pickem

Looking at it empirically I get the rationale for a close game, maybe even a pick 'em; but I just don't get the rationale for us to be favored, even accounting for your points.

And I am going tonight and therefore expect us to win, but I don't think Vegas knows that @August_West hooked me up.

 

[HeGotGame]

Homecourt in college basketball is massive. Auburn, on Saturday, the #2 team in the country was a 1 point favorite at 16-10 Florida, the same Florida team they blew out at home earlier in the year.

 

[Stinger92860]

Can someone explain why we are favored?

Yes. We are going to win!!

 

[8893]

Yes. We are going to win!!

 

[PNolanFan]

You never know why the lines are what they are just assume that whatever your first thought is wrong

 

[CTBasketball]

This will just add to the confusion

We’re likely doomed if majority of the money is on Villanova!

 

[JB75]

Good team who's been playing well and is at home. There's a general wariness and hesitation on this board to feel good about this UConn team that the public perception doesn't match

Couldn’t have said it better myself. I’m guilty of that as well. Last 5-6 games I couldn’t believe how much the handicappers loved UConn

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

Can someone explain why we are favored?

Red Panda is wearing a throwback uniform

 

[Tenspro2002]

This is one of those where, afterward, we'll either say "there goes Vegas again, knowing something everyone else doesn't" or "wow, that was easy, no need to overthink this one".

 

[XLCenterFan]

My immediate reaction was the same. Must mean we are going to roll tonight.

 

[August_West]

We’re likely doomed if majority of the money is on Villanova!

Public really liking moneyline on nova. But I thought it would be even higher.

 

[August_West]

We can ABSOLUTELY win this game tonight. We have all the pieces to do so. Nova is simply a bad matchup for us, but it is something we can overcome by matching their attention to detail (limiting turnovers and bad shots, staying out of foul trouble, and playing every 30 seconds on Defensive end likes its the last)

 

[CTGoonie]

But they beat us handily two weeks ago while missing one starter for the entire game and their best player for much of the second half. And historically have been a poor match-up for us.

You could say that exact same thing for Xavier and look how that turned out. They were without Kunkel that game. Nova losing Gillespie for 10 minutes up 15 wasn't a big factor.