UConn (-14.5)

[BFieldHusky]

On the road against DePaul.

 

[imno1]

Hopefully we don’t sleepwalk through the start like some past years right before the Xmas break

 

[auror]

I smell shenanigans. I took DePaul +8.5 and UConn -23.

 

[navery12]

I smell shenanigans. I took DePaul +8.5 and UConn -23.

I assume there's some logic here I'm missing but if the most likely outcome based on all the predictive models is something like a 10-15 point win aren't you likely to lose both of these? I guess you're thinking it's either close or a blowout?

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Last year we won at wintrust but lost Liam for a month. That place still haunts me. Just walk away with a win and everyone healthy.

 

[Deepster]

I assume there's some logic here I'm missing but if the most likely outcome based on all the predictive models is something like a 10-15 point win aren't you likely to lose both of these? I guess you're thinking it's either close or a blowout?

One of my cardinal rules of betting is don’t knowingly hold a losing ticket. One of those two bets is a loser.

 

[auror]

I assume there's some logic here I'm missing but if the most likely outcome based on all the predictive models is something like a 10-15 point win aren't you likely to lose both of these? I guess you're thinking it's either close or a blowout?

The logic is that the alt lines have >+200 odds so I only need to win 1 of the 2 to profit on both bets. Essentially I'm betting that it's more likely to be an extreme outcome than what is projected as the most likely outcome.

Now is that a good bet? Probably not. It's more risky than typical bets, since I've opened myself up to getting middled. The most likely outcomes are that for a reason, the models are good, and the most likely outcome is my worst outcome, which is not a great place to be.

I'm just inferring that the nature of the game being a big mismatch, on the road, a few days before Christmas is enough to swing it away from those likely outcomes (plus some things like us being potentially underrated analytically due to all the injuries and lineup shuffling and some aberrant small sample shooting from our best shooters).

It would probably have been much smarter to just pick 1 side of the extreme outcomes, but I'm just having fun with it.

 

[auror]

The shenanigans have begun

 

[Eric K]

makes sense. Now down to 12.5

 

[BGesus4]

Good God. Hopefully he’s just sick or something… I knew the gods wouldn’t just let us win back to back and keep it moving

 

[StllH8L8ner]

The shenanigans have begun

Ummm…what.

 

[CTBasketball]

Injuries just pop up randomly for this team…

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Injuries just pop up randomly for this team…

Never seen anything like it

 

[FightOnCT]

Good thing we have Mullins back!