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At Xavier.
6-7 ATS this year.
I feel like in the past good free-throw teams with the lead the spread would diverge down the final stretch due to fouling. Lately it seems like every game the spread converges due to press turnovers, hitting desperation threes, light foul calls and missing free throws. A double digit spread has to be a blow out, otherwise the spread will tighten up under the line.11.5 is an inflection point.
Less than that and it's possible for the favorite to cover as long as they have any kind of a lead and there's fouling in the final minute. Above that, it basically requires a blowout (or expanding a lead late in the game).
Not sure I see a blowout here on the road in our first action after an extended break.
Right after typing this I lost Navy -5.5 to a last second 3 to miss the line by 1/2 a point when Navy was up by 15 with 4 mins left. fml, happens way too often.I feel like in the past good free-throw teams with the lead the spread would diverge down the final stretch due to fouling. Lately it seems like every game the spread converges due to press turnovers, hitting desperation threes, light foul calls and missing free throws. A double digit spread has to be a blow out, otherwise the spread will tighten up under the line.
We haven’t covered against cupcakes, that’s true. But we did cover against both Butler and DePaul to open up the Big East. People probably assume we didn’t cover those games due to our slow startsWe will be double digit faves against all teams from here on out except for at SJU/Cr/Nova.
We have not been covering.
Total crap shoot with these spreads. I lean towards the points