UConn’s Vulnerabilities Heading To Postseason

[HuskyHawk]

An athletic team that can switch 1-4?

Valid. I think Dan learned from the Kansas game, so we are better able to handle that than we were. It still hurts our normal offense and forces us to a bit more inside-out type game. So I'd say that's especially a concern if combined with DC foul trouble.

 

[3rdbass]

Clingan foul trouble and big physical 4’s that can bully Karaban down low (he’s been better here and there aren’t a ton in the country that can really exploit this.

In defense to Karaban he has added strength so that isn't as much of a problem. Though now forwards especially are getting past him more as he has lost some lateral quickness with the added girth. He can still jump and block shots on his man which is good. I'm more worried with the 5 position. Clingan is inury and foul prone and Samson has regressed from earlier in the year and is foul waiting to happen.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

1. Clingan foul trouble
2. Stretch 4’s and 5’s that can pull our bigs away from the basket. Combined with quick guards who can drive.
3. Opposing player going for 30+

Teams that come to mind, are Tennessee. Very physical, good experienced guards, bigs that can step out if need be, and Dalton Knecht can go for 40+ if he wants. Castle guarding him is our only hope of shutting him down outside of an off-shooting night.

A 5 out-cutter efficient offensive team will have a shot to put up big #'s against the likes of Purdue ect...regardless if the big is in foul trouble.

 

[PlayItLeo]

Agree with what's been posted, but I'll add I'm not overly confident in offensive depth. Last year, we had 3 guys coming off the bench who could mess around and give you ~8pts any given night (Clingan, Calcaterra, Alleyne). This year, we may have only one who's capable (Ball), but it feels less reliable as his minutes dwindle. Diarra is trending positively, which has been awesome to watch, so maybe he can be THE new bench guy. I want Samson to be able as well, but as others have pointed out, he's wildly inconsistent. This puts more emphasis on defense during those stretches where we're playing guys 6, 7 and 8 in the rotation, and I wonder if that'll continue to be sustainable in 2.5-3 weeks.

 

[Richmondhsky]

teams with lots of athleticism... Both of our losses are against teams that were quicker, stronger, and more athletic than us. Our guards/Karaban can get beat off the dribble quite a bit.

Think you’re right. Particularly at guard, strong guards give us trouble.

 

[PNolanFan]

I do not really think backup center is our problem. If you look through the country, how many teams have a better backup center than us? I bet its under 10 teams

 

[JonnyRI]

If we just can get a small step up from Stewart and Ball (like getting 8-10 per game from them combined with 6 boards) I would feel as or more confident than I did about last years team in March.

 

[REB1094]

The way to scheme defense against UConn is to sag off the C (clog the lane against our off ball movement) and have athletic Gs/Fs switching everything PG-PF (no open looks and defense doesn’t get stuck behind the play)

Sounds easy but requires a LOT of unwavering communication and focus. Hard to maintain for a full 40 minutes. Miss 1 assignment and we’re shooting an open 3 or at the hoop

The way to scheme offense against UConn is to get Clingan in foul trouble, get a good driver matched up with Cam/Newton/Karaban, and then relentlessly attack the paint

#1 priority for Clingan the rest of the year is to learn to contest without fouling. Him being on the floor completely eliminates that offensive scheme for other teams

It’s hard. Very hard. So many options to this UConn team and you can’t fully take away everything

 

[navery12]

A team making 10 threes a game isn't unusual any more. Plenty of teams make 9 or more a game on average.
A team would have to make at least 15 threes to get my attention for being "hot" from 3.

47 out of 362 teams make 9 or more 3's per game so I'd say it's still well above average. And only 16 teams make 10 or more

 

[Tenspro2002]

Have we seen much zone defense this year? That could neutralize our PnR offense or Clingan post-ups.

I'm mostly worried about Karaban being taken out of the game. He's really the piece that enables everything else in our offense to work.

 

[navery12]

I don't even think foul trouble at the 5 is really a vulnerability. Donovan Clingan and Samson Johnson have spent 75% of the season in foul trouble (or injured) and it hasn't even really affected our play. It would obviously suck and cause a shift in game plan, but I don't see it hurting us. And I also see it as much less of an issue away from Big East refs.

I guess the team that would scare me most is someone with big guards that could neutralize our advantage there, and also has 4 or 5 guys who can shoot, and switch everything on defense. But that team doesn't exist, which is why I think this season ends up in at least the Elite 8 where anything can happen regardless of how we matchup

 

[Tenspro2002]

I guess the team that would scare me most is someone with big guards that could neutralize our advantage there, and also has 4 or 5 guys who can shoot, and switch everything on defense.

lol you are describing an NBA team

 

[MexicoHusky]

Our biggest vulnerability was actually highlighted in Tuesday night's game against Butler. A team with a combination of strong guards who are good with the kick out to shooters who hit a few more shots when they are open. Butler had 3 or 4 chances to make us really start sweating in the latter stages of that game, but they missed each of those penultimate shots. If any of them go down and Butler gets our lead under 5...

A team with a little more talent on a better shooting night in the tournament could put us in that position. Then let's see what happens when things get tight around the collar for us.

Otherwise, I agree that a strong 4 with some offensive game that gets Karaban either into foul trouble or at least back on his heals enough times is our other biggest vulnerability. We do not have anyone who matches up defensively against a DeJuan Blair/Jerome Lane-type of player... not that their are many DeJuan Blair/Jerome Lane-types floating around college basketball currently, if any.

Im not buying a strong 4 is something we really need to worry about. That was more of a weakness last year. Some teams were able to take advantage a little... but it just lead to a few buckets. Nothing we werent able to overcome. Karaban didnt just sit there and take it either. He gave it back with threes, passing and generally smart basketball. Finally that was last year. Alex is one year stronger.

 

[navery12]

lol you are describing an NBA team

Pretty much. At full strength I don't think any team in the country matches up in a way that scares me. They might have an advantage at a specific spot, but that's it

 

[DaMuttzNutt]

A bad night from 4 of our starters
Cling Kong foul trouble
Bad foul shooting on our end
A team that has multiple guards and a big who can play well outside

3 out of the 4 above are self inflicted wounds. A team with a mix of vets, young guys with deep experience, and a coach who just won his first, should be able to avoid self inflicted wounds. This is why I feel very good about the Tournament

 

[MexicoHusky]

Basically a better version of us can beat us

 

[Deepster]

Flashier? Few.

Better? Many.

Johnson makes the highlight-reel plays with alley-oops where he's 2 feet above the rim (which, don't get me wrong, adds value to our offense when we can execute it). But he's a mediocre on-ball defender against opposing bigs, doesn't protect the rim as well as a guy with his hops and length should, and has among the worst rebounding instincts we've seen.

One could argue that we'd be better off with a backup 5 along the lines of a Charles Okwandu who, for all his limitations, at least made the steady plays and kept the opposing team in check in the time he was spelling better players.

That said, this isn't really our biggest vulnerability since we can even go to small-ball lineups for a time if needed.

I think this is a little harsh and unfair. He had virtually no time last season and with Clingan's foot problem was a starter all of a sudden. If he as bad as you paint him to be, the stretch with no Clingan and the games where Clingan is in foul trouble all game would have surely bit us in the rear and it hasn't.

 

[Deepster]

I worry about the scrappy, unorthodox team that plays with a big chip on their shoulder. Like how Seton Hall played us earlier in the year. Throws us out of our rhythm and let's their physicality dictate the flow.

To counter that? I think it's all on Newton. He's the guy to ensure we pay OUR game EVERY night.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Agree with what's been posted, but I'll add I'm not overly confident in offensive depth. Last year, we had 3 guys coming off the bench who could mess around and give you ~8pts any given night (Clingan, Calcaterra, Alleyne). This year, we may have only one who's capable (Ball), but it feels less reliable as his minutes dwindle. Diarra is trending positively, which has been awesome to watch, so maybe he can be THE new bench guy. I want Samson to be able as well, but as others have pointed out, he's wildly inconsistent. This puts more emphasis on defense during those stretches where we're playing guys 6, 7 and 8 in the rotation, and I wonder if that'll continue to be sustainable in 2.5-3 weeks.

Samson, Diarra and Ball to a lesser degree can definitely give you 8 points each any given night.

 

[MDHuskFan]

Biggest thing missing to me from this team vs last years is that we sometimes have a tendency to go on some scoring droughts.

We don’t have an Adama, Aka a guy who we can get the ball to, clear out & just get a bucket when the other team starts going on a run.

 

[superjohn]

Injuries, that's it.

 

[boog204]

If we just can get a small step up from Stewart and Ball (like getting 8-10 per game from them combined with 6 boards) I would feel as or more confident than I did about last years team in March.

This is a good call, too. We really do not much get offense off the bench. Diarra is a good for 5-6 and Samson will catch a lob or two. But that's really it. If any of our starters are off, there's nobody who we could turn to for a bucket from the bench. Last year we had Naheim, DC, and Joey C. That was almost 20/gm from the bench.

 

[GlastonTim]

We get sloppy and careless with the ball at times, have to clean that up. I love Tristen and all that he brings but I think his shot selection at times is a head shaker. Keep playing to their identity, go hard on the offensive glass, team ball should get us there.

 

[superjohn]

This is a good call, too. We really do not much get offense off the bench. Diarra is a good for 5-6 and Samson will catch a lob or two. But that's really it. If any of our starters are off, there's nobody who we could turn to for a bucket from the bench. Last year we had Naheim, DC, and Joey C. That was almost 20/gm from the bench.

We clearly have the best starting 5 in the country and our starting 5 is better this year than last. If one of our starters is off another starter gets 20+ instead of the typical 15 to offset it.

 

[navery12]

This is a good call, too. We really do not much get offense off the bench. Diarra is a good for 5-6 and Samson will catch a lob or two. But that's really it. If any of our starters are off, there's nobody who we could turn to for a bucket from the bench. Last year we had Naheim, DC, and Joey C. That was almost 20/gm from the bench.

It may not look as pretty, but the difference isn't as drastic as you'd think. Our 6-9 spots on the bench last year averaged 20.0 per game, this year it's 17.8. And with Stewart becoming a bigger part of the rotation I'd expect that to creep up even closer to 20 too

 

[boog204]

It may not look as pretty, but the difference isn't as drastic as you'd think. Our 6-9 spots on the bench last year averaged 20.0 per game, this year it's 17.8. And with Ross becoming a bigger part of the rotation I'd expect that to creep up even closer to 20 too

Did I miss where Ross is becoming a part of the rotation?

 

[navery12]

Did I miss where Ross is becoming a part of the rotation?

I meant Stewart, no idea where Ross came from

 

[huskeynut]

First - we have 5 starters who can all score in double figures every night. This starting 5 is better than last year's team. We can score from the outside and the inside. Wehave arguably the 3 best guards in the country. On offense we have learned to adapt to different situations. With Clingan being sidelined and Castle being out for a spell along with Karaban, the team has held it's own as our record indicates. Hurley can play 8 - 9 without a problem.

Defensively, we're good even with Clingan and others being out. Johnson has filled in admirably when called on. No, he is not Clingan, but he holds his own most of the time. Diarra has been the 6th man all season. Quality minutes both on offense and defense and running the offense. Ball has had some very good moments and Stewart has been decent.

Everyone needs to relax and enjoy this team. The glass is more than half full.

 

[auror]

The keys to beating us in my mind:

Defense - You gotta be able to switch 1-4. We don't attack mismatches much, so it's less about physical profile and more about team communication and discipline. You need to be able to team rebound and probably have at least one bigger body to not get overwhelmed by Clingan. It doe help if your guards can play aggressive and physical D as well, especially against Spencer.

Offense - Strong and athletic 4 man and center that can stretch the floor help. More shooters to stretch us out and then strong or skilled players capable of driving. 4 or 5-out offense (Nova, Creighton) has killed us for years. We got a little fortunate last year that we played all teams with traditional centers in March. Nova has a terrible coach and still almost beat us this year. Marquette beat us 2/3 last year because they had a 4 who could shoot and attack the paint and a mobile 5. A 5 that can get DC in foul trouble also makes things easier for opponents.

Houston has the D, but 2 non-shooters isn't getting it done against us. I think we match up pretty well with Purdue. I'm not sure Arizona's guards are good enough to make us pay, though this year's Keshad Johnson who can make 3s is a tough matchup. Against Tennessee, I think we attack Knecht and have Newton drive and score over Zeigler. North Carolina didn't have the defensive chops, I doubt Illinois does either. Iowa St can't keep us off the boards or score enough. Duke's D probably not up to snuff.

Auburn is the team I don't want to see. We'll see how our games go with Marquette this year, but I don't love the matchup. Kansas is still a tough matchup on paper, especially with the Furphy emergence (though he's bad on D). Everyone else is going to have a tough time keeping up with our talent.

 

[Hunt for 7]

I meant Stewart, no idea where Ross came from

I was doing the same thing to start the year. Always got the two confused. Never figured out why, but when JStew started playing more it went away.