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Over the last nine games, UCLA has been streaking at the right time, winning seven of those games (including wins over Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan) and close losses to Minnesota and Purdue. As a result, the team has improved its season worst #42 KenPom rating to #27, the first time the team has been that strong of a rank since late November.
Cronin’s 2021 Final Four team and the 2022–23 squads were elite defensively and extremely tough, built around physical guards and rim protection, but this year’s group hasn’t matched that consistency on that end, especially considering the team’s struggles with interior defense, rebounding and having one of the worst A/FGM ratios on defense (63.1%, which is 2nd percentile!)
Offensively, though, this current team is more skilled and versatile, with better spacing and more frontcourt scoring (especially through Tyler Bilodeau and Xavier Booker at the 5), whereas earlier teams could stagnate in the half court. There’s a real level of synergy to this offense as all five starters average double-digits per game and they are elite at limiting turnovers. Even though the team doesn’t shoot a lot of threes (35.7% 3PA/FGA), they are very efficient (team 38 3P%), but they can be streaky with their interior scoring efficiency (51.8 2P% ranks 178th nationally), which is very much so correlating to their propensity to shoot deeper 2PAs (7.8 foot average 2PA ranks sixth farthest in the nation).
Overall, this version trades a bit of defensive identity for higher offensive ceiling, making them more dangerous when shots fall, but less reliable game-to-game.
For UCLA, a huge factor is the health of starting center Tyler Bilodeau, who has missed the last two games with a knee injury he suffered against Michigan State. Cronin basically summarized that he’s a game-time decision for Sunday night, but if he’s in, Bilodeau is one of the most skilled scoring big men in the country at all three levels, with a polished mid-post game and the ability to stretch defenses with his shooting (46.4% from three!). He rebounds well on the defensive end and plays within the flow of the offense, though he’s not an elite rim protector or explosive athlete. His health is a major factor of the team’s offense, but he’s not a strong defender and gives up two inches and thirty pounds to Reed (feed the beast)!
In his place, Xavier Booker has been very good, showcasing his length and modern skill set in which he can handle, face up, and also shoot (42 3P%), so props to Cronin and the staff for unlocking him with real offensive upside. Defensively Booker has top-50 national block rates and switchability potential thanks to his length and mobility, but he still needs to add strength and consistency to hold up against physical matchups and his defensive metrics show as he especially struggled on defense in Big Ten play. With Booker starting at the 5, grad transfer Steven Jamerson has stepped up as the physical, defensive-minded backup big, but when he’s in, the spacing is greatly affected as he is simply a paint touch guy on offense.
My favorite player on UCLA is point guard Donovan Dent. Transferring over from New Mexico, he’s sacrificed a bit of his iso-game and usage rate to better fit UCLA’s system and bevy of more talented players, but the brighter spotlight helps solidify his rep as one of the most savvy and composed true point guards in the nation. Moving up to the Big Ten, he’s sacrificed his shooting efficiency (44 2P%, 25 3P%) so even though he’s got the skill and ability to get to the rack and draw fouls, he’s arguably a more predictable pass-first player, although there’s a major advantage for a healthy Demary to cut off the head of the snake. Conversely, Dent is also the best defender in the starting lineup, so he’ll get every minute he good get despite being a little banged up.
Follow senior Skyy Clark starts at the 3, but plays all three backcourt positions and is the team’s PG when Dent sits. A strong defender when matched up with smaller guards, Clark is the best mix of efficiency and volume in the backcourt.
Owning a quick first step, handle, and ability to score at all three levels, Clark has matured as a consistent playmaker and decision-maker. Defensively, he competes hard and creates steal opportunities, though his overall impact is limited by his lack of length as a 3-guard.
Sophomore 2-guard Trent Perry made big strides this year as a steady and poised combo guard who scores efficiently, spaces the floor, and makes good decisions, but profiles more as a secondary playmaker than a true lead creator, even though he’s capable of going on hot streaks. Defensively, he’s competitive but his lack of high-end athleticism and developing defense IQ makes him the weakest defender in the starting lineup.
Rounding up the starting lineup is Eric Dailey Jr who has played well of late averaging 15.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game across the last seven games A physical, versatile forward who scores efficiently around the rim, runs the floor well, and can stretch the defense a bit (his perimeter efficiency ratings this year are a career low), though he’s not a primary creator and relies more on play-finishing than shot-making. Defensively, he brings strength and effort with the ability to guard multiple positions, but he’s not an elite rim protector or highly disruptive playmaker, reprising the theme of the frontcourt acting as the defensive Achilles heel of UCLA.
Off the bench, freshman Eric Freeny is a stoutly built three-and-D big guard who battles under the boards and is one of the team’s most competitive defensive players. When he’s in the game, he plays as the 3-guard alongside two of the other starting guards. If more guys on the team played as hard on the defensive end as Freeny, we wouldn’t be blessed with Cronin’s uninspired sound bytes this season.
Backing up at the power forward position is redshirt sophomore Brandon Williams, who is another glue guy type player who plays physically and is strong on the offensive boards even though he is shorter than your typical Big Ten power forward. He’s low usage on offense and is at his best defending power forwards towards the rim, so his defensive efficiency and value can be minimized with Karaban playing on the perimeter. Despite his effort on defense, he rates as UCLA’s least efficient defender.
Overall, UCLA will try to slow the game down, limit turnovers, and execute in the half court to keep things close against UConn’s physicality. Especially if Demary is healthy, the edge in size, rebounding, and interior scoring, which could be a problem for UCLA if they don’t gang rebound and stay disciplined defensively. A deciding factor is shooting and shot-making. If UCLA spaces the floor and hits threes, they can absolutely compete, but if it turns into a physical paint battle, UConn likely controls the game as this isn’t your typical Mick Cronin-coached team, much to the ire of their prickly head coach.
Cronin’s 2021 Final Four team and the 2022–23 squads were elite defensively and extremely tough, built around physical guards and rim protection, but this year’s group hasn’t matched that consistency on that end, especially considering the team’s struggles with interior defense, rebounding and having one of the worst A/FGM ratios on defense (63.1%, which is 2nd percentile!)
Offensively, though, this current team is more skilled and versatile, with better spacing and more frontcourt scoring (especially through Tyler Bilodeau and Xavier Booker at the 5), whereas earlier teams could stagnate in the half court. There’s a real level of synergy to this offense as all five starters average double-digits per game and they are elite at limiting turnovers. Even though the team doesn’t shoot a lot of threes (35.7% 3PA/FGA), they are very efficient (team 38 3P%), but they can be streaky with their interior scoring efficiency (51.8 2P% ranks 178th nationally), which is very much so correlating to their propensity to shoot deeper 2PAs (7.8 foot average 2PA ranks sixth farthest in the nation).
Overall, this version trades a bit of defensive identity for higher offensive ceiling, making them more dangerous when shots fall, but less reliable game-to-game.
For UCLA, a huge factor is the health of starting center Tyler Bilodeau, who has missed the last two games with a knee injury he suffered against Michigan State. Cronin basically summarized that he’s a game-time decision for Sunday night, but if he’s in, Bilodeau is one of the most skilled scoring big men in the country at all three levels, with a polished mid-post game and the ability to stretch defenses with his shooting (46.4% from three!). He rebounds well on the defensive end and plays within the flow of the offense, though he’s not an elite rim protector or explosive athlete. His health is a major factor of the team’s offense, but he’s not a strong defender and gives up two inches and thirty pounds to Reed (feed the beast)!
In his place, Xavier Booker has been very good, showcasing his length and modern skill set in which he can handle, face up, and also shoot (42 3P%), so props to Cronin and the staff for unlocking him with real offensive upside. Defensively Booker has top-50 national block rates and switchability potential thanks to his length and mobility, but he still needs to add strength and consistency to hold up against physical matchups and his defensive metrics show as he especially struggled on defense in Big Ten play. With Booker starting at the 5, grad transfer Steven Jamerson has stepped up as the physical, defensive-minded backup big, but when he’s in, the spacing is greatly affected as he is simply a paint touch guy on offense.
My favorite player on UCLA is point guard Donovan Dent. Transferring over from New Mexico, he’s sacrificed a bit of his iso-game and usage rate to better fit UCLA’s system and bevy of more talented players, but the brighter spotlight helps solidify his rep as one of the most savvy and composed true point guards in the nation. Moving up to the Big Ten, he’s sacrificed his shooting efficiency (44 2P%, 25 3P%) so even though he’s got the skill and ability to get to the rack and draw fouls, he’s arguably a more predictable pass-first player, although there’s a major advantage for a healthy Demary to cut off the head of the snake. Conversely, Dent is also the best defender in the starting lineup, so he’ll get every minute he good get despite being a little banged up.
Follow senior Skyy Clark starts at the 3, but plays all three backcourt positions and is the team’s PG when Dent sits. A strong defender when matched up with smaller guards, Clark is the best mix of efficiency and volume in the backcourt.
Owning a quick first step, handle, and ability to score at all three levels, Clark has matured as a consistent playmaker and decision-maker. Defensively, he competes hard and creates steal opportunities, though his overall impact is limited by his lack of length as a 3-guard.
Sophomore 2-guard Trent Perry made big strides this year as a steady and poised combo guard who scores efficiently, spaces the floor, and makes good decisions, but profiles more as a secondary playmaker than a true lead creator, even though he’s capable of going on hot streaks. Defensively, he’s competitive but his lack of high-end athleticism and developing defense IQ makes him the weakest defender in the starting lineup.
Rounding up the starting lineup is Eric Dailey Jr who has played well of late averaging 15.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game across the last seven games A physical, versatile forward who scores efficiently around the rim, runs the floor well, and can stretch the defense a bit (his perimeter efficiency ratings this year are a career low), though he’s not a primary creator and relies more on play-finishing than shot-making. Defensively, he brings strength and effort with the ability to guard multiple positions, but he’s not an elite rim protector or highly disruptive playmaker, reprising the theme of the frontcourt acting as the defensive Achilles heel of UCLA.
Off the bench, freshman Eric Freeny is a stoutly built three-and-D big guard who battles under the boards and is one of the team’s most competitive defensive players. When he’s in the game, he plays as the 3-guard alongside two of the other starting guards. If more guys on the team played as hard on the defensive end as Freeny, we wouldn’t be blessed with Cronin’s uninspired sound bytes this season.
Backing up at the power forward position is redshirt sophomore Brandon Williams, who is another glue guy type player who plays physically and is strong on the offensive boards even though he is shorter than your typical Big Ten power forward. He’s low usage on offense and is at his best defending power forwards towards the rim, so his defensive efficiency and value can be minimized with Karaban playing on the perimeter. Despite his effort on defense, he rates as UCLA’s least efficient defender.
Overall, UCLA will try to slow the game down, limit turnovers, and execute in the half court to keep things close against UConn’s physicality. Especially if Demary is healthy, the edge in size, rebounding, and interior scoring, which could be a problem for UCLA if they don’t gang rebound and stay disciplined defensively. A deciding factor is shooting and shot-making. If UCLA spaces the floor and hits threes, they can absolutely compete, but if it turns into a physical paint battle, UConn likely controls the game as this isn’t your typical Mick Cronin-coached team, much to the ire of their prickly head coach.
