Turnovers: Relax People, We Are Good!

[eyeroll]

I keep seeing all this stuff about our turnovers and how bad they are, etc. I'm a data guy, so that's what I did. Here are the turnover numbers for the AP Top 25, sorted by ranking and by TO/G. Relax people, the fact that we're where we are with the amount of injuries, people in/out, etc. - we should be CELEBRATING how well they've done. The average is 14.2 across all teams. Again, given the context of what we've endured, I think that's pretty darn good with a SOS in the Top 15.

By Ranking		By TO/G
Team	TO/G	Team	TO/G
South Carolina	14.9	Florida Gulf Coast	11.7
Stanford	13.6	Iowa State	12.5
NC State	12.6	NC State	12.6
Louisville	14.3	Virginia Tech	12.6
Baylor	12.8	Baylor	12.8
Michigan	16.4	Indiana	12.9
UConn	14.3	Maryland	12.9
LSU	13.7	BYU	13.3
Iowa State	12.5	Arizona	13.4
Indiana	12.9	Stanford	13.6
Texas	15.1	LSU	13.7
Arizona	13.4	North Carolina	13.7
Maryland	12.9	Georgia Tech	13.7
Notre Dame	15.5	Ohio State	13.8
Florida	16.5	Louisville	14.3
Tennessee	17.1	UConn	14.3
Ohio State	13.8	South Carolina	14.9
North Carolina	13.7	Texas	15.1
BYU	13.3	Iowa	15.2
Oklahoma	18.7	Notre Dame	15.5
Iowa	15.2	Michigan	16.4
Georgia Tech	13.7	Florida	16.5
Virginia Tech	12.6	Tennessee	17.1
Florida Gulf Coast	11.7	Oklahoma	18.7

 

[Littlemin]

TOs, like all data, are not static. Walks, offensive fouls or bad passes that go out of bounds, for instance, are ”dead ball“ TOs meaning the ball is taken out of bounds by the opponent so you can get back and set up your defense. Generally speaking, they are considered less impactful than “live ball“ turnovers, which often can lead to runouts and easy baskets. So again, generally speaking, Points off TOs of an opponent thus becomes a more meaningful stat than just # of TOs a team commits; as second chance points given up becomes a more meaningful stat than just # of offensive rebounds an opponent gets. A 3 point shooting team may get a fair number of long offensive rebounds but their conversion rate into points could very possibly be low because of the distance from the basket they are retrieving the ball.

 

[eyeroll]

TOs, like all data, are not static. Walks, offensive fouls or bad passes that go out of bounds, for instance, are ”dead ball“ TOs meaning the ball is taken out of bounds by the opponent so you can get back and set up your defense. Generally speaking, they are considered less impactful than “live ball“ turnovers, which often can lead to runouts and easy baskets. So again, generally speaking, Points off TOs of an opponent thus becomes a more meaningful stat than just # of TOs a team commits; as second chance points given up becomes a more meaningful stat than just # of offensive rebounds an opponent gets. A 3 point shooting team may get a fair number of long offensive rebounds but their conversion rate into points could very possibly be low because of the distance from the basket they are retrieving the ball.

Totally agree. If there were easily accessible stats on some of those turnover metrics I'd be more than happy to pull it in, but it's not part of the tracked NCAA stats.

 

[fireford]

After reading these stats I'll no longer worry about turnovers. I'll just indulge in them.

 

[HuskyNan]

UConn’s TOs have ranged from 6 to 21. Some were just brain dead TOs but many are the result of a new lineup, key injuries/illness, or the fact that several games were played without a point guard.

From HerHoopsStats, scroll down for the season box score by opponent

UConn Huskies - 2022 NCAA

Traditional and Advanced Statistics, Schedule, Rosters, Game Logs, Team Comparisons, and more from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

 

[eyeroll]

After reading these stats I'll no longer worry about turnovers. I'll just indulge in them.

Ohhh, you're my kind of people! LOL

 

[Rocket009]

Totally agree. If there were easily accessible stats on some of those turnover metrics I'd be more than happy to pull it in, but it's not part of the tracked NCAA stats.

Turnovers/possesions may also be interesting. Teams that play up-tempo will have more possessions and more chances to turn the ball over.

 

[Littlemin]

Totally agree. If there were easily accessible stats on some of those turnover metrics I'd be more than happy to pull it in, but it's not part of the tracked NCAA stats.

Understood; stats are interesting but often very misleading. I am very much old school and prefer the eye test to stats but the point you make with your table is certainly valid.

 

[Redux]

TOs, like all data, are not static

Yes. A big problem with TO's usefulness as an analytical stat is that it's so many different things. If an inspired defensive player guesses right and flies through the air like superwoman to intercept your perfect pass, that's a turnover. So is bouncing the ball off your own foot while you're daydreaming and having a defensive player pick up the free ball for an uncontested layup.

I'm a longtime Geno watcher and he seems very much aware of the difference, but you can't see it in the TO total.

 

[Cuango]

While I agree that turnovers are a concern, given what has happened to this team, I’m surprised we don’t have more. Familiarity with your teammates is one of the big things that limit turnovers. When you are constantly changing your lineup, it becomes much more likely you will misread a teammate’s intentions. Hopefully, now that we are healthy, t/os will start trending down (although we don’t have a lot of time left).

 

[eyeroll]

UConn’s TOs have ranged from 6 to 21. Some were just brain dead TOs but many are the result of a new lineup, key injuries/illness, or the fact that several games were played without a point guard.

From HerHoopsStats, scroll down for the season box score by opponent

UConn Huskies - 2022 NCAA

Traditional and Advanced Statistics, Schedule, Rosters, Game Logs, Team Comparisons, and more from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

Ohhhhhh how have I not seen this before?! I'm somewhat ashamed. Of course I had to play around with it. Despite how awful folks feel like our 3pt shooting is, the last national championship team shot 38% and this team is shooting 34% with all the chaos. Pretty negligible. There is so much to be proud of them for!

 

[HuskyNan]

Have you guys seen @JRRRJ stat sheet? He posts them after (almost) every game

JRRRJ’s stats

 

[meyers7]

TOs, like all data, are not static. Walks, offensive fouls or bad passes that go out of bounds, for instance, are ”dead ball“ TOs meaning the ball is taken out of bounds by the opponent so you can get back and set up your defense. Generally speaking, they are considered less impactful than “live ball“ turnovers, which often can lead to runouts and easy baskets. So again, generally speaking, Points off TOs of an opponent thus becomes a more meaningful stat than just # of TOs a team commits; as second chance points given up becomes a more meaningful stat than just # of offensive rebounds an opponent gets. A 3 point shooting team may get a fair number of long offensive rebounds but their conversion rate into points could very possibly be low because of the distance from the basket they are retrieving the ball.

True, but even if they are dead ball TOs they are possessions we've lost. Now that we are shooting better, it doesn't hurt as much. But there were some games there were we were being out possessed. Teams were getting more shots than us. That's not good.

 

[eyeroll]

Understood; stats are interesting but often very misleading. I am very much old school and prefer the eye test to stats but the point you make with your table is certainly valid.

Totally agree and I see that in my job quite regularly, unfortunately. In no way am I disputing that there is context in terms of the type of turnovers, etc. My point was really for the folks (not necessarily you) that keep harping on the turnovers as an issue. Maybe they are "uglier" in nature than some other years, but the reality is that we're averaging about 2.5 turnovers more than our last national championship team with all the craziness that this season has to offer, in addition to our youth. Looking at our last 7 games since most folks were back, that differential drops to just 1.0. I'm just using the numbers to advocate giving the ladies some slack and that it's not "sky is falling" level.

 

[Littlemin]

True, but even if they are dead ball TOs they are possessions we've lost. Now that we are shooting better, it doesn't hurt as much. But there were some games there were we were being out possessed. Teams were getting more shots than us. That's not good.

Who said any TOs were good? I made a general comment about stats, and their context, the concept is really not that hard to understand.

 

[CocoHusky]

Totally agree and I see that in my job quite regularly, unfortunately. In no way am I disputing that there is context in terms of the type of turnovers, etc. My point was really for the folks (not necessarily you) that keep harping on the turnovers as an issue. Maybe they are "uglier" in nature than some other years, but the reality is that we're averaging about 2.5 turnovers more than our last national championship team with all the craziness that this season has to offer, in addition to our youth. Looking at our last 7 games since most folks were back, that differential drops to just 1.0. I'm just using the numbers to advocate giving the ladies some slack and that it's not "sky is falling" level.

I wish I could relax but turnovers are and remain an issue for this team. Prior to Page's injury UCONN lost the turnover margin in 4 of its first 6 games of the season. Therefore the attribution of increase turnovers to multiple lineup changes is not fully justified. I view a team that has this many turnovers similar to the way I view a poor foul shooting team. It is a weakness that can be exploited and fundamentally requires individual correction. The most alarming thing concerning these turnovers for me are the ones that are not the result of the opposing defense such as traveling and offensive fouls. I realize that this is about the 5th time today I posted this but I remain concerned about turnovers for this team. I've read the thread that @HuskyNan started regarding maintaining perspective as well as the stats you have included in this thread- I remain concerned about turnovers. One last point regarding your comparison to the last championship team, that team had quite a few world class defenders that were able to dictate pace of play and generate turnovers. This team has only recently had enough healthy bodies to be able to partially dictate pace of play. The real key stat that will make you want to reconsider that comparison is this: This UCONN team is averaging.1.24 less turnovers per game than the opponent, for the last championship team that number was 8.7. There really should not be any comparison with this team and that team's ability to take care of the basketball and get the opponent to turn the ball over.

 

[and one]

There are no stats in sports that aren't debatable for one reason or another, which is why comparing teams or players relative worth can't easily be quantized. There are always factors that are omitted because there are so many variables, some of which are subjective. Equally, the eye test can also be deceiving. I can't tell you how many times I've watched a game where I thought the team I root for was great at this or terrible at that and was surprised when I saw the stat sheet. You just notice things your team does more than for other teams. How many times does someone complain that the team shot badly only to have it pointed out they shot 50%.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Those LVs have a finely tuned offense!

 

[nomdoux]

I wish I could relax but turnovers are and remain an issue for this team. Prior to Page's injury UCONN lost the turnover margin in 4 of its first 6 games of the season. Therefore the attribution of increase turnovers to multiple lineup changes is not fully justified. I view a team that has this many turnovers similar to the way I view a poor foul shooting team. It is a weakness that can be exploited and fundamentally requires individual correction. The most alarming thing concerning these turnovers for me are the ones that are not the result of the opposing defense such as traveling and offensive fouls... The real key stat that will make you want to reconsider that comparison is this: This UCONN team is averaging.1.24 less turnovers per game than the opponent, for the last championship team that number was 8.7...

Eyeroll, thanks for compiling this analysis. Great thread!

CH, excellent above-captioned points. TO +/- is a better way to gauge since incorporates net play, not unlike TO margin in football. But this stat is best digested vis-a-vis other factors. A great defensive but average offensive team like SC can afford more TO's b/c they lock down on the other end & their scoring opportunity cost is not as severe, whereas a better offensive team that does not defend as well is hurt more by TO imbalance.

Crucially, this is the time of year where stats like TO/margin need to improve. Only 4 teams get to the FF & only 1 emerges as NCAA Champion, so the fact that our TO stats are comparable to the other highly ranked teams, though comforting in seasonal context, means very little at this point. Unless we improve relative to these other teams, we will lose to one of them, & perhaps prior to Minneapolis.

 

[Blueballer]

Telling people to Relax on The Boneyard is like telling people not to eat anything on a cruise ship. It's not going to happen.