torvik contribution projection

[Huskyforlife]

Will say Samson averaging less points is surprising.

 

[husky429]

No comment.


View attachment 102724

If I'm a betting man, I'm taking the under on Diarra (he'll facilitate more than score), and Ball. I'll take the over on the over on McNeeley and Reed. Probably Samson too. I have a hard time imagining our total production at the 5 is limited to 12/8. I'm thinking we get 17/10 out of the 2 of the bigs.

Stewart will put up at least 7/4/2 as well.

Too early to tell on Nowell, but I have a feeling he'll make some noise.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

65ppg from the top 7.

This board will be bananas if UConn is only scoring about 70 points total or less on average.

I'd be perfectly fine with it. If we hold the opponents to 45 pts per game

 

[Bboy Lace]

I'm looking forward to seeing how much better everyone has gotten. Strangely, I'm most looking forward to seeing Ross. I can see him getting drafted in 2 years.

 

[RuffRuff]

His preseason data is hot garbage as it’s impossible to project these things using a machine unless you have someone starting same system in consecutive years. It’s otherwise a math scramble. This is where art and using the the power of critical thinking over math formulas take over, just too many scenarios to consider.

 

[thekollieman]

I may be going out on a limb here to some, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hass ends up scoring 15 ppg by tapping into pure leadership mode.

 

[uconn_jack]

I may be going out on a limb here to some, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hass ends up scoring 15 ppg by tapping into pure leadership mode.

I wouldn't be suprised if Hass averages 8 ppg or 14 ppg. What I would be suprised with is if he isn't a leader who impacts the game several ways.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Karaban: 16
McNeeley: 13
Stewart: 12
Mahaney: 10
Johnson: 8
Diarra: 7
Ball: 7
Reed: 5
Nowell: 5

Total: 83

 

[Ricker]

You know I'm a big Alex fan but I'm going to take the under on both Alex & Aiden and the over on McNeeley.

Alex
1. Averaged 13.3 ppg playing over 31 min a game and the minutes on the court won't be increasing
2. He will be the focus of defenses this year and as an unselfish player he will defer to the open player in many games
3. He led us in scoring 9x last year playing 39 of 40 games with a high of 26 pts
I figure that might be about the same number of games he will be the hot hand this year
4. Nobody averaged 16 pts for us last year and we have diversified scorers again this year (Newton was high at 15.1)
5. Alex values winning over hunting shots and I think 13-14 points will be about the average again
6. I believe Hurley trusts his bench depth at the forward spot and will want to get Ross/Abraham minutes when he can
Up 20 points with 6 minutes to go, I think Alex gets a few less closing minutes against some teams

Aiden
1. Averaged 13.9 points last year taking 435 shots in 34 games =12.8 shot attempts per game
2. Newton only took 439 shots in 40 games, and Spencer took 405 shots or 10 attempts per game
Aiden might take important shots, but IMO we aren't going into this season relying on him to shoot more than Newton/Spencer
3. I believe his attempts will be down to 8-10 per game with all the options we have
4. Spencer had to put up 225 3 pointers in 40 games at 44% to average 14.3ppg last year (5.6 attempts per game)
Aiden put up 234 3 pointers in just 34 games at 35.5% to average his 13.9 ppg (6.88 attempts per game)
At UConn he may increase his respectable percent but I don't see him getting nearly 7 three pt attempts per game
He may get 7 attempts in particular games but that just won't be necessary every time out

I suspect we will have 8 players that score in double figures more than once, (Karaban, McNeeley, Mahaney, Diarra, Ball, Stewart, Reed, Johnson), and, I'm not going to bet against (Nowell, Ross, or Abraham) getting in the act at least 1x, (heck Roumoglou got 5 pts in 2 garbage time minutes). But that kind of scoring diversification means averages of 5 to 10 ppg for several very capable players because we aren't averaging more than 80 points I would assume.

Liam
McNeeley in that 12-14 point range leading the team in scoring 9x like Alex wouldn't surprise me. He is on the team to score. The limiting factor for him will be playing good enough defense and rebounding to get the minutes from Hurley that he needs to score.

 

[ToolzieFan]

Everyone needs to relax a bit about these projections. His site is one of the best during the season, and it’s rated us well recently - even in the midst of our rough streak in January 2023, we were never out of the top 10. The ability to adjust the dates in rankings is fun and useful. You need to look at the minutes before overreacting to the projected stats. For example, Jaylin Stewart is projected to average 2.6 points and 1.8 rebounds in 17% of our minutes. Let’s say he really plays 51% of our minutes. All of a sudden, that projection is 7.8 points and 5.4 rebounds in just over 20 minutes per game. Realistically, it’s fine to ignore the specifics of the player projections, although they’re not a bad starting point. Once the season starts, it really is one of the best and most user-friendly sites out there.

And don’t bother yelling “Nerd!” at me; I already know.

T-Page for Connecticut - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[Palatine]

Give me the over on Stewart at at 2.6 points per game. YIKES.

 

[pj]

They have Jaylin Stewart at a higher ORTG than McNeeley (3rd highest on the team) and, if he had McNeeley's minutes, 10 points 7 rebounds 1 assist which is better than McNeeley's numbers. And Stewart's defense is probably at least as good as McNeeley's. If this is the efficiency then it's hard to see why Stewart would play so little.

 

[awy]

^this is why my take on this is that this model evaluates incoming freshman and returning players differently. the former by recruit rankings expectation, the latter by past performance projecting into minutes.