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Top Four

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Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Mississippi

Sorry just not buying the bull they're selling. ND, TCU, MSU, ORE all can beat Auburn, Ole Miss and Miss St. on any good day.

Watch as Alabama manages to find its way in. There will 3 SEC teams just because. Until they get 16 teams in play, this is a joke.
 

jbdphi

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Lots more games to come between the Top SEC teams - we're free to judge the list as it stands right now but we all know it will look a lot different at the end of the year. I highly doubt you would see three SEC teams.
 

RedStickHusky

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Still hoping they eat their own and the SEC ends up with a 2-loss champ - not an unlikely outcome I think. SEC getting shut out will guarantee a short shelf life for the four team format.
 

whaler11

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I can guarantee you two things

1. The SEC isn't getting shut out
2.The SEC isn't getting three teams

I can't speak for the committee but I don't think if they rank a team say 6th that means they think they couldn't beat the teams ranked ahead of them.
 
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I'd eliminate TCU and any one from the B12 simply on the basis that the playoff is designed to be a test of the best 4 11-on-11 teams, not 7-on-7.
 
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America wants to see a fair competitive broad endgame. I think they got to go 8. Even this 3 or of 4 here today won't capture optimal interest.
 
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Ole Miss or Auburn should be eliminated this weekend seeing as they play each other on Saturday, but knowing the ESPiN hype machine and they'll some how justify keeping the loser of that game in the top 4.
 
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Mississippi State playing Mississippi on 11/29. That knocks off one.
Iron Bowl would decide Auburn/Alabama.
Any loss would knock out FSU given their schedule.


That is assuming we are to buy the 'late loss' rule.
 
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I can guarantee you two things

1. The SEC isn't getting shut out
2.The SEC isn't getting three teams

I can't speak for the committee but I don't think if they rank a team say 6th that means they think they couldn't beat the teams ranked ahead of them.

This can't be about who you think would beat whom, or it is too subjective to be fair. It has to be about -- as hoop picks are about, if not always correctly -- comparing the body of work of each team. I think the current top picks are perfectly reasonable.
 

whaler11

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This can't be about who you think would beat whom, or it is too subjective to be fair. It has to be about -- as hoop picks are about, if not always correctly -- comparing the body of work of each team. I think the current top picks are perfectly reasonable.

I think their poll is generally reasonable. The only odd thing is the spread between Baylor and TCU.

I was commenting that everyone pretty much understands any of the teams could beat the other teams. That ranking someone 3rd and ranking someone 7th doesn't mean you don't think 7 can beat 3.

We've only got about half the data on these teams. I think anyone who has only 1 loss outside of Duke or ECU who wins out gives themselves at least a 90% chance of making the playoff this season. Now that could change if Mississippi State wins out but that is somewhere between mostly unlikely and very unlikely.

There are scenarios where there is mayhem and they are picking between 2 loss teams for multiple spots but I think it will mostly sort itself out.
 
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If Alabama gets in that means they will have knocked out Ole Miss and Auburn. If Miss St. goes undefeated the SEC will rightfully have 2 teams in. If those two teams play for the title they will argue that they should have had 3. Its up to the other teams to prove that the SEC is overated.

The SEC has won 7 of the last 10 National Titles. As long as they keep winning 70% of the titles they will continue to dominate the rankings.
 
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If Alabama gets in that means they will have knocked out Ole Miss and Auburn. If Miss St. goes undefeated the SEC will rightfully have 2 teams in. If those two teams play for the title they will argue that they should have had 3. Its up to the other teams to prove that the SEC is overated.

The SEC has won 7 of the last 10 National Titles. As long as they keep winning 70% of the titles they will continue to dominate the rankings.

Bama would also have knocked off Georgia. If Bama wins out they are in. Case closed. If Miss State's only loss is to Bama they are in as well. Then you're looking at FSU (go Ville) as the 3rd and a fight for the last spot between the winner of OSU/Mich St, Oregon, ND, and TCU/KState provided they all finish with 1 loss (I don't see that happening). Personally I'm not putting in any Big 12 team (defense is optional) but that's just me.
 
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Even if TCU wins out (not sure that's happening), they need Baylor to lose another game ( probably 50/50 at best) to even win the conference. Not sure that if you have a Big XII team that it can be one who didn't win the conference.
 

RedStickHusky

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think kstate is the 12's best bet but the winner there should be ok -- it's the B1G that's at the biggest risk of getting locked out; not sure how a pac-12 champ other than oregon fares but that's probably ugly as well
 

Drew

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Bama would also have knocked off Georgia. If Bama wins out they are in. Case closed. If Miss State's only loss is to Bama they are in as well. Then you're looking at FSU (go Ville) as the 3rd and a fight for the last spot between the winner of OSU/Mich St, Oregon, ND, and TCU/KState provided they all finish with 1 loss (I don't see that happening). Personally I'm not putting in any Big 12 team (defense is optional) but that's just me.


Not that I disagree but if Miss St's only loss is to Bama, Mich St's only loss is to Oregon and ND's only loss is to FSU how does Miss St automatically get in?
 

SubbaBub

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As it stands, I have zero problem with the poll. They astutely, arranged it so teams will self select. I like that they kept Ole Miss over Bama, something the "power poll" and other talking heads couldn't comprehend.

I like giving credit for big wins, no matter if they occurred a month ago.

The only way I see 2 SEC teams is if Georgia defeats Miss St in the CCG, or if FSU loses a game. The other two will be the best 1 loss teams from the B1G, B12, or Oregon. A 1 loss ND follows after that.

All in all a pretty easy year for the committee.
 

RedStickHusky

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Mich St's problem is no good wins -- cause the whole b1g tubed ooc. It's not the loss, it's the lack of good wins.
 

whaler11

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Mich St's problem is no good wins -- cause the whole b1g tubed ooc. It's not the loss, it's the lack of good wins.

Well Michigan State would need to beat Ohio State. They could certainly use Nebraska getting to 11-1 though if they end up with too many 1 loss teams.
 

whaler11

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Except schedule is biased by sec preseason hype - with s.car as the poster child.

I don't know South Carolina beat East Carolina and more than half the country can't even give East Carolina a game.
 

RedStickHusky

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I feel you Whaler but ECU lost a ton of cred last week. Fwiw, I love this debate and I agree with your point that there are playoff games every week now.
 

RedStickHusky

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Under no metric are Bama, Auburn, Miss St, and Ole Miss not top 10 teams. Record, SOS, eye test, whatever.
So you couldn't name seven teams to bump one of those... two of them will finish with three losses - doesn't help my argument but I like Georgia better than Ab and ole miss. I really like miss st., have watched them several times. Still think that Oregon, Kstate, Mich St, Fla St (for arguments sake), TCU, Baylor all remain in the mix. Next few weeks will be fun.
 
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