Top Four in Final four

[alexrgct]

Let's say the odds for a typical #1 seed are as follows:

99%- winning Round 1
92.5%- winning Round 2
80%- winning Round 3
65%- winning Round 4

That would mean that the #1 seed has a 47.62% chance of making the Final Four, and there's a 5.14% chance of all four making it...if all four were "typical."

Now, that does not mean all #1 seeds are "typical". For instance, UConn in 2009 and 2010 probably had a 90%+ chance of winning each of its first four games. I would not afford any team in the field this season with that kind of consideration, though Baylor is better than typical.

Let's say there were four 2010 UConn-caliber teams out there, just for argument's sake. The odds would then be:

99%- winning Round 1
99%- winning Round 2
95%- winning Round 3
90%- winning Round 4

Even with those odds, even with the ludicrous possibility of there being four such teams, there's only a 49.31% chance at the onset of the tourney of all four #1 seeds making the F4.

In short, chances are strong that we won't see all four #1s.

 

[rington]

I predict that Delaware will upset UCONN, thus resulting in the firing of the entire UCONN staff and the loss of every recruit for the next two years.

The Delaware men?

 

[cardfan]

Card offense woke up today, 91-51 over Ariz.

 

[easttexastrash]

The Delaware men?

The Delaware football team. They will have lots of fouls to give.

 

[triaddukefan]

The Delaware football team. They will have lots of fouls to give.

Dont you mean fowls? After all, they are the Blue Hens