Top 6?

[HuskylnSC]

For the last few weeks we have been hearing that anyone of 6 teams can win the NC. Now we have to throw Stanford and Iowa into the mix. If the top 8 play out as C. Creme hopes, the EE will be a dogfight. How many want to see Baylor playing to go to the FF having to face Megan Gustafson and Iowa. Same for UConn v. Louisville or Notre Dame v Stanford or Hail Stave v. Oregon. You know Charlie won't get the matchups perfect, but what a potential series of games.

 

[IWearShoes]

I don't think Iowa measures up to the Top 7, but I hope they get a chance to prove me wrong.

 

[Plebe]

I don't think Iowa measures up to the Top 7, but I hope they get a chance to prove me wrong.

I agree. There is a significant gap between #7 and #8. Baylor and Notre Dame are both *hoping* that the committee sends Iowa their way instead of Stanford.

 

[DallasBUFan]

I agree. There is a significant gap between #7 and #8. Baylor and Notre Dame are both *hoping* that the committee sends Iowa their way instead of Stanford.

Yes please!!! Iowa!! I don't think the Maryland guards weren't making it hard for the Iowa guards to get it to Gufstason. Keep the ball out of her hands and you win easily.

 

[Bear11]

I agree. There is a significant gap between #7 and #8. Baylor and Notre Dame are both *hoping* that the committee sends Iowa their way instead of Stanford.

Count me in that group for sure. I know Gustafson is outstanding, but I don’t know that she has faced the type of defense Baylor would throw at her.

 

[MD#12Fan]

Could Louisville go down early? They looked horrible, being shorthanded as they were.

 

[Plebe]

Could Louisville go down early? They looked horrible, being shorthanded as they were.

I think anyone *could* go down early. Every team except Baylor and UConn has taken a loss to a team outside the top 10, and both of those teams have looked vulnerable at times as well. Baylor just recently had a really close game vs. West Virginia, a team that's unlikely to make the tournament. And I won't even comment on some of the games UConn has had against lesser foes.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Stanford had some stumbles during the course of the season, maybe a bit more than the other top 6, but EVERYBODY looked vulnerable at some point this season. They've been winning games w/out hitting on all cylinders. If their Big 3 all have good games and they can hit from behind the arc consistently, they can beat anybody else out there this year.

 

[Irish88]

Baylor will be tested by any team at a neutral site during the tournament. They’ve shown us year after year that they’re not a tournament team

 

[Oldbones]

Baylor will be tested by any team at a neutral site during the tournament. They’ve shown us year after year that they’re not a tournament team

Kinda like Notre Dame year after year never coming through in the championship game…………….

 

[Orangutan]

With wins over Baylor and Oregon, I thinking it has to be considered a "Magnificent 7" with Stanford in the group.

No to Iowa, though. I just can't buy them as a real NC threat after the way ND crushed them earlier this year. They are not on the level of the rest of that group.

And yes, I would much, much, much rather ND play them again rather than Tara's Cardinal. They are only 221 miles from Chicago. Do the right thing Selection Committee!

 

[Jmsdawg]

Baylor will be tested by any team at a neutral site during the tournament. They’ve shown us year after year that they’re not a tournament team

Maybe tested but so far this year Stanford is their only loss and it will take an elite teams A game to beat Baylor.

 

[TheFarmFan]

With wins over Baylor and Oregon, I thinking it has to be considered a "Magnificent 7" with Stanford in the group.

No to Iowa, though. I just can't buy them as a real NC threat after the way ND crushed them earlier this year. They are not on the level of the rest of that group.

And yes, I would much, much, much rather ND play them again rather than Tara's Cardinal. They are only 221 miles from Chicago. Do the right thing Selection Committee!

You're wise and speak from experience here, Orangutan!

I'm obviously biased here, but I think just about every year Tara is one of the few coaches you don't want to see in the tournament almost regardless of who her personnel are in a given season. I don't think she's the best player skills development coach in the country (that's Geno, by a mile), but I do think she is the best, or among the best, tacticians in the country, and definitely the coach most likely to find and expose other teams' Achilles heels. Stanford was the only team to beat Baylor in Griner's senior season before Baylor was essentially mugged by the refs and the Shimmel sisters in the sweet 16, the only team to beat UConn during the Stewwie-Mo-Tuck sophomore-senior 138-1 run, and the only team to have beaten Muffitt (twice) in the tournament since her loss to UConn in the title game in 2015. If there's one thing Tara is good at, it's playing David to a top team's Goliath. I don't think that gets you a championship (and it hasn't in going on 25+ years), but it will get you respect, and fear.

 

[Undercovervol]

Stanford is definitely capable of making FF this year.
To me the top two teams are Baylor and Notre Dame (could we see rematch of 2012 final?)
Both teams match up well with each other too. To me, Baylor is the best defensive team, while Notre Dame is the best offensive team. I’d love to see the contest between Cox/Brown and Shepard/Turner. What a fight. Notre Dame has the edge with backcourt play, while Baylor has better options off the bench.
Tough to say who has the better front court: Cox is the best defensive player, followed by Turner (slight edge). Best offensive player either Shepard or Brown.
UConn, dare I say, is my “sleeper” team (if UConn could ever be called that). With the emergence of ONO, suddenly UConn’s front court looks way better than in December, at least defensively, something Geno has acknowledged. No hate, but that emergence hasn’t come against the best competition... still, UConn is a better defensive team with ONO playing more minutes, something that could’ve turned the tide against Baylor.

 

[Undercovervol]

You're wise and speak from experience here, Orangutan!

I'm obviously biased here, but I think just about every year Tara is one of the few coaches you don't want to see in the tournament almost regardless of who her personnel are in a given season. I don't think she's the best player skills development coach in the country (that's Geno, by a mile), but I do think she is the best, or among the best, tacticians in the country, and definitely the coach most likely to find and expose other teams' Achilles heels. Stanford was the only team to beat Baylor in Griner's senior season before Baylor was essentially mugged by the refs and the Shimmel sisters in the sweet 16, the only team to beat UConn during the Stewwie-Mo-Tuck sophomore-senior 138-1 run, and the only team to have beaten Muffitt (twice) in the tournament since her loss to UConn in the title game in 2015. If there's one thing Tara is good at, it's playing David to a top team's Goliath. I don't think that gets you a championship (and it hasn't in going on 25+ years), but it will get you respect, and fear.

I believe the first year Moore won a title Stanford had them down at the half with UConn scoring less than 20 in a half. Tara is a great tactician. Although, she’s lost to Coach Holly Warlick far too often for my liking.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I believe the first year Moore won a title Stanford had them down at the half with UConn scoring less than 20 in a half. Tara is a great tactician. Although, she’s lost to Coach Holly Warlick far too often for my liking.

Well it kinda makes sense, right - Warlick has no apparent game plan for her teams, so there's nothing to scout against, and the modern-day Lady Vols are used to improvising on the court, because they have to do it every single game; if you aren't Achilles, you can't have an Achilles' heel. (Just joking - sort of.)

 

[Plebe]

Stanford is definitely capable of making FF this year.
To me the top two teams are Baylor and Notre Dame (could we see rematch of 2012 final?)
Both teams match up well with each other too. To me, Baylor is the best defensive team, while Notre Dame is the best offensive team. I’d love to see the contest between Cox/Brown and Shepard/Turner. What a fight. Notre Dame has the edge with backcourt play, while Baylor has better options off the bench.
Tough to say who has the better front court: Cox is the best defensive player, followed by Turner (slight edge). Best offensive player either Shepard or Brown.
UConn, dare I say, is my “sleeper” team (if UConn could ever be called that). With the emergence of ONO, suddenly UConn’s front court looks way better than in December, at least defensively, something Geno has acknowledged. No hate, but that emergence hasn’t come against the best competition... still, UConn is a better defensive team with ONO playing more minutes, something that could’ve turned the tide against Baylor.

In complete agreement with you on every point.

Every top team has had their ups and downs, but on the whole Baylor and Notre Dame have been the most impressive IMO, and seem to be trending up.

I don't want to see UConn lose, of course, but Baylor-ND would be a heckuva game. I was salivating in the first reveal when they had both teams in Greensboro. It was too good to be true...

 

[Irish88]

Kinda like Notre Dame year after year never coming through in the championship game…………….
View attachment 40811

Hmmmmmm..... but...... nvm

 

[MilfordHusky]

I believe the first year Moore won a title Stanford had them down at the half with UConn scoring less than 20 in a half. Tara is a great tactician. Although, she’s lost to Coach Holly Warlick far too often for my liking.

That was Maya's second championship. We had 12 at halftime and about 43 in the second half.

We beat Louisville and Angel in Maya's first championship the prior year (2009). Tina was the star in that game. We beat Stanford by 19 in the semis that year.

 

[Undercovervol]

In complete agreement with you on every point.

Every top team has had their ups and downs, but on the whole Baylor and Notre Dame have been the most impressive IMO, and seem to be trending up.

I don't want to see UConn lose, of course, but Baylor-ND would be a heckuva game. I was salivating in the first reveal when they had both teams in Greensboro. It was too good to be true...

Agreed. Notre Dame has had some bumps this season, but when they decide to put their heads down and get to the basket...I don’t know of a team that can stop them. Their losses have mostly come because they relied too much on jump shooting.
Jackie Young is the quietest alpha player I may have observed in WCBB. Sorry Arike, but Young is the best guard I’ve seen this year. It was no secret in the Louisville game this weekend that she’s the best player on that team. She looked to score first and foremost.

 

[bballnut90]

Kinda like Notre Dame year after year never coming through in the championship game…………….
View attachment 40811

Difference is Notre Dame was a big underdog going into each title game, having to face the likes of Griner and Stewart. No one thought they'd win. Baylor has consistently lost to lesser teams. Only in 2014 and 2015 did they lose to a higher ranked team. I think this year they're well positioned for a Final Four run, but I've also thought that the previous 3 so we'll see what happens.

 

[bballnut90]

Agreed. Notre Dame has had some bumps this season, but when they decide to put their heads down and get to the basket...I don’t know of a team that can stop them. Their losses have mostly come because they relied too much on jump shooting.
Jackie Young is the quietest alpha player I may have observed in WCBB. Sorry Arike, but Young is the best guard I’ve seen this year. It was no secret in the Louisville game this weekend that she’s the best player on that team. She looked to score first and foremost.

I think Notre Dame is very beatable despite looking fantastic as of late. Turn ND into a jump shooting team by playing a hard zone and hope Arike gets trigger happy. Also need to close out on Mabrey. On the flipside, attack the basket extremely hard and try to get ND into foul trouble. They have zero depth.

Teams like UCONN, Mississippi State, Oregon and Baylor all have the size and rebounders to slow Turner/Shepard inside. Louisville just doesn't. Not sure Stanford does. Hoping most make the regional finals and we get some classic games with Final Four berths on the line.

 

[Plebe]

Difference is Notre Dame was a big underdog going into each title game, having to face the likes of Griner and Stewart. No one thought they'd win. Baylor has consistently lost to lesser teams. Only in 2014 and 2015 did they lose to a higher ranked team. I think this year they're well positioned for a Final Four run, but I've also thought that the previous 3 so we'll see what happens.

I wouldn't say ND was the underdog when they lost to A&M.

And I don't think that Notre Dame was a *huge* underdog in 2014 when they entered the title game undefeated and had looked awfully impressive throughout the season. The loss of Achonwa in the Elite 8 game was definitely a blow, though.

 

[Reypl21]

I think that ND is dangerous because Turner is starting to get going. I remember in the 2016-17 season she was hitting some turn around and fadeaway shots consistently. She hasn't shown that this year until recently.

Stanford is a dangerous team because of Tara. Her defensive scheme's are great if she has the time to prepare.

Matchups are everything in this year tourney. Iowa is definitely the weakest link. Baylor would love to get them. Cox is pretty lengthy and bulky at the 4. Gustafson is about positioning and quick post moves. Per her post-UConn interview, Cox takes defense seriously. I think she would be up to the challenge of slowing down Gustafson. If she can't out position her, throw Brown on her. That would be tough to get around.

MSst should be a 2 seed IMO, and they are the most dangerous one. Oregon doesn't seem as dangerous to me because I don't think Graves is elite at adjustments on the fly. The two best samples I have are against Stanford and ND last year, so maybe he is but not at an elite level yet. Also, Sabally is very foul prone and Hebard can be neutralized a little bit with a decent shot blocker.

I think the E8 seedings will be
Baylor/Iowa
UConn/MSst
ND/Stanford
Lou/Oregon

I can see MSst and Lou trading places with their seeding, but I think the committee would rather have some fresher matchups. Not two matchups that have already taken place. Plus, Lou has the better resume vs MSst.

 

[bballnut90]

I wouldn't say ND was the underdog when they lost to A&M.

And I don't think that Notre Dame was a *huge* underdog in 2014 when they entered the title game undefeated and had looked awfully impressive throughout the season. The loss of Achonwa in the Elite 8 game was definitely a blow, though.

2011 was basically a toss up from what I remember, so you're right on that one.

In 2014 they became a massive underdog once Achonwa was out.....they had an inexperienced freshman and an undersized Ariel Braker competing with Dolson/Stewart. UCONN took full advantage.

 

[Reypl21]

I wouldn't say ND was the underdog when they lost to A&M.

And I don't think that Notre Dame was a *huge* underdog in 2014 when they entered the title game undefeated and had looked awfully impressive throughout the season. The loss of Achonwa in the Elite 8 game was definitely a blow, though.

The only year ND wasn't the underdog was against A&M. That would be the season that would haunt me if I was Muffet. I remember watching the FF thinking it was gonna be a rematch between Stanford and UConn. The outcomes were very exciting, and I don't think there was really a clear favorite in the matchup.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Teams like UCONN, Mississippi State, Oregon and Baylor all have the size and rebounders to slow Turner/Shepard inside. Louisville just doesn't. Not sure Stanford does. Hoping most make the regional finals and we get some classic games with Final Four berths on the line.

Not sure how Smith and Dodson are smaller or less capable of defending/rebounding than Hebard and Sabally. Stanford's duo just outrebounded Oregon's duo 20-9 on Sunday.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I think that ND is dangerous because Turner is starting to Oregon doesn't seem as dangerous to me because I don't think Graves is elite at adjustments on the fly. The two best samples I have are against Stanford and ND last year, so maybe he is but not at an elite level yet. Also, Sabally is very foul prone and Hebard can be neutralized a little bit with a decent shot blocker.

Totally agree. When Oregon loses, it's usually to teams with savvy coaches and enough players that can execute solidly on defense. It's why they've lost to OSU and Stanford every year that Ionescu and Hebard have been in Eugene - Rueck and Tara are very good at halftime adjustments. Also, Oregon is kind of turnover prone - pressing teams can fluster them into bad passes and sloppy ball handling. That said, they're probably the only rival to Notre Dame in terms of most complete 1-5 lineup - they have an extremely good player in every position, with almost no bench behind them.

 

[TheFarmFan]

The only year ND wasn't the underdog was against A&M. That would be the season that would haunt me if I was Muffet. I remember watching the FF thinking it was gonna be a rematch between Stanford and UConn. The outcomes were very exciting, and I don't think there was really a clear favorite in the matchup.

That season haunts me as a Cardinal fan. Notre Dame had just upset UConn and the door seemed wide open to finally get a third championship. It honestly feels like "the one that got away."

 

[bballnut90]

The only year ND wasn't the underdog was against A&M. That would be the season that would haunt me if I was Muffet. I remember watching the FF thinking it was gonna be a rematch between Stanford and UConn. The outcomes were very exciting, and I don't think there was really a clear favorite in the matchup.

ND missed out on what would be their best title opportunity for years, but ND was a big Cinderella to get there in the first place. They knocked off a very good 34-2 Tennessee team in the regionals (Muffet was 0-20 head to head against Pat until that point and lost earlier in the year to UT), and they beat a goliath in UCONN to get to the title game. No one thought they'd beat UCONN, they lost to them 3x that year, UCONN was 36-1 and Maya Moore was a senior. Pretty sure this was the only time a team has beat both UCONN and Tennessee in the NCAA tournament. With or without a title, that was a heck of an accomplishment for her relatively unheralded squad.

The year that should haunt Muffet with "what if" is 2017. They were the #2 team behind UCONN entering the tournament and most expected a UCONN-ND title game. ND lost Turner in the 2nd round and had no height inside. In the Elite 8 they blew a 16 point 2nd half lead against Stanford, losing by one. One could argue they likely win that game with a healthy Turner, or that they should've won even without.

Fast forward to the semis and they would've faced South Carolina where ND would have been favored if healthy. Even without Turner, most would've expected ND to be a slight underdog at worst. Then they would have played Mississippi State for the title game where again ND would be a big favorite. 2017 was the first time they would've had a path to the title without facing the likes of Griner/Stewart/Moore or an undefeated team. That was a huge missed opportunity in hindsight.