Top 16 reveal (Feb. 29) | The Boneyard

Top 16 reveal (Feb. 29)

Plebe

Plebe

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1 South Carolina
2 Ohio St
3 Stanford
4 UCLA
5 Virginia Tech
6 Texas
7 Iowa
8 USC
9 LSU
10 UConn
11 NC St
12 Oregon St
13 Colorado
14 Indiana
15 Gonzaga
16 Oklahoma
 
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I'm shocked Oklahoma was vaulted ahead of Utah for the final hosting spot, virtually disregarding OU's dreadful OOC results. I'm sorry but there's no way their overall resume is anywhere near as good as Utah's.

Creme definitely face-planted on his USC/UCLA projection.
 
Glad to see Gonzaga on there. Looks like they're eradicating the losses from when Betts/Brink were out in giving both Stanford/UCLA #1 seeds. Curious if Pac-12 can hold on to 2 number one seeds after next weekend. I still think Virginia Tech slides in and takes a #1 seed if they win out. And I still see no chance of UCONN being shipped to Portland with a regional in Albany. The committee did the same song and dance a couple of years ago, putting UCONN going to a different region in the mid-season reveals, but once the final brackets were announced, UCONN was in Bridgeport.
 
Those 5 PAC teams create all sorts of seeding problems.
With Stanford UCLA USC in the other 3 regions, Ore St is forced into Albany 1. Bad to not have them in Portland.

I suspect in a final bracket UConn and LSU would be swapped. Also balances bracket strength better.
 
So, according to the committee, just looking at the last two weeks, a win over Texas and a loss to West Virginia is more impressive than wins over Colorado and USC and losing to UCLA (which was a route).

And Utah, over the season, has beaten USC twice, UCLA (with Betts), lost to Stanford by 2, and beat Colorado (2/16, the day after Colorado’s number 1 seed reveal).
 
The committee falling for shiny new object syndrome.

Utah has 4 wins over the current top 16 (USC x2, UCLA, Colorado).
Oklahoma has 2 (Texas x2). They do have wins over KSU and Baylor, but also have losses to UNLV, Tennessee, Princeton, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Utah's worst loss was in overtime at Arizona (NET #33).
Oklahoma lost at home to Southern (NET #220).
 
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Plebe said:
The committee falling for shiny new object syndrome.
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Chair said that seeding was based on how team was playing now, so looks like old losses were discounted.

Beating TX twice and winning the b12 title ain’t nothing.
 
Vowelguy said:
Chair said that seeding was based on how team was playing now, so looks like old losses were discounted.

Beating TX twice and winning the b12 title ain’t nothing.
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And the B12 ain't the P12.
Oklahoma also just lost to West Virginia, a team that wouldn't even be in the top half of the Pac-12.
 
Well so much for VaTech nabbing a 1. They just got handily beat by Notre Dame. It can still happen but they're down the depth chart now compared to having a clear track entering today.
 
bballnut90 said:
Well so much for VaTech nabbing a 1. They just got handily beat by Notre Dame. It can still happen but they're down the depth chart now compared to having a clear track entering today.
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VPI ain't winning the ACC tournament. They are the #1 seed, but the 4/5 will be ND/Louisville.... if they survive that... they would be in the finals against State/Duke.
 
Plebe said:


1 South Carolina
2 Ohio St
3 Stanford
4 UCLA
5 Virginia Tech
6 Texas
7 Iowa
8 USC
9 LSU
10 UConn
11 NC St
12 Oregon St
13 Colorado
14 Indiana
15 Gonzaga
16 Oklahoma
Expand ...

Acceptable
 
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Vowelguy said:
Those 5 PAC teams create all sorts of seeding problems.
With Stanford UCLA USC in the other 3 regions, Ore St is forced into Albany 1. Bad to not have them in Portland.

I suspect in a final bracket UConn and LSU would be swapped. Also balances bracket strength better.
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If this were the final seeding, the committee might quietly swap Colorado and Oregon State to let OSU play close to home, while letting Colorado have the privilege of not being in a regional with another top 16 Pac-12 team.
 
CompSci87 said:
If this were the final seeding, the committee might quietly swap Colorado and Oregon State to let OSU play close to home, while letting Colorado have the privilege of not being in a regional with another top 16 Pac-12 team.
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The committee can't do that, quietly or otherwise. The top four teams selected from the conference must go into different regions.

What they perhaps could have done is send Stanford or UCLA out to Albany to make space for Oregon State in Portland.
 
Plebe said:
The committee can't do that, quietly or otherwise. The top four teams selected from the conference must go into different regions.

What they perhaps could have done is send Stanford or UCLA out to Albany to make space for Oregon State in Portland.
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It's up to them what order to select the teams in. So they could have decided to put Colorado just over OSU instead of just under.
 
CompSci87 said:
It's up to them what order to select the teams in. So they could have decided to put Colorado just over OSU instead of just under.
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Don't think it works that way. The seeding happens first, then the bracketing. They don't reverse engineer the seeds just to keep one team close to home.
 
Sc OhioSt Stan have 1 seed locked up

Last spot to pac12 champ, Iowa, or Vt
 
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Vowelguy said:
Sc OhioSt Stan have 1 seed locked up

Last spot to pac12 champ, Iowa, or Vt
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You do know VT got beat last night?

I say:

SCar
Stanford
tOSU or Iowa if one wins out from here
TBD*

Texas but only if they win out from here
UCLA for sure if they win out maybe even they survive a loss in the PAC tourney
LSU if they win Win out and neither team above does
ACC I just don't see one strong enough
 
visitingcock said:
You do know VT got beat last night?

I say:

SCar
Stanford
tOSU or Iowa if one wins out from here
TBD*

Texas but only if they win out from here
UCLA for sure if they win out maybe even they survive a loss in the PAC tourney
LSU if they win Win out and neither team above does
ACC I just don't see one strong enough
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Really don’t see LSU jumping from 3 seed to 1 seed. The only Top 25 win they jhave is VaTech, correct? Even if they beat S.C. there are several teams above them that would have a better resume. I never say never but I don’t see a road to get there.
 
TC22 said:
Really don’t see LSU jumping from 3 seed to 1 seed. The only Top 25 win they jhave is VaTech, correct? Even if they beat S.C. there are several teams above them that would have a better resume. I never say never but I don’t see a road to get there.
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Yeah, it would require chaos above them, but the P-5 tournaments can provide that chaos
 
visitingcock said:
Yeah, it would require chaos above them, but the P-5 tournaments can provide that chaos
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I understand that, but there’s a reason they are a 3 seed even with all the chaos going on above them. I guess we shall see.
 
South Carolina will be the highest #1
Big 10 Champion will be second #1
Pac 12 Champion will be third #1
Big 10 Runner up will be 4th #1
Pac 12 Runner up will be highest #2
ACC Winner will be the second #2
UConn will be the third #2
Big 12 Winner will be the fourth #2

Just my opinion
 
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ConnMotors said:
South Carolina will be the highest #1
Big 10 Champion will be second #1
Pac 12 Champion will be third #1
Big 10 Runner up will be 4th #1
Pac 12 Runner up will be highest #2
ACC Winner will be the second #2
UConn will be the third #2
Big 12 Winner will be the fourth #2

Just my opinion
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If iowa wins out, doubtful they move all the way to 2 overall, and certainly not if ucla or Stanford win the pac.

Unlikely to me that UConn moves from 10 to 7 just by beating Creighton again. Would need not just losses but bad losses by teams ahead of them.

Also NCSt and OreSt have potential to leap over UConn with conf tourney titles (unlikely for NCS given how they’ve been trending).
 
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LoTrader said:
It would be a shame to have Oregon State not play in Portland Regional. Bottom line, OSU can change that by winning Saturday vs Cal, and then tearing it up in the PAC-12 Tournament.
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They'll get placed in Portland barring something strange. I went through regional history going back to 2010 and pulled the top 4 seeded teams each year and identified if they were placed in the nearby home regional (within 3 hours driving time) or if they were shipped elsewhere. Look at the results:

2023: Greenville hosted #1 South Carolina

2022: Bridgeport hosted #2 UCONN, Greensboro hosted #1 South Carolina. NC State was also close to Greensboro but got the boot to Bridgeport because of South Carolina being nearby and earning the #1 overall seed.

2019: Chicago hosted #1 Notre Dame, Albany hosted #2 UCONN, Portland hosted #2 Oregon.

2018: Albany hosted #1 UCONN, Lexington hosted #1 Louisville

2017: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Lexington hosted #4 Kentucky, Stockton hosted a regional but did not host #2 Stanford (though Stanford isn't known for drawing well)

2016: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Dallas hosted #1 Baylor and #4 Texas A&M, Lexington hosted #3 Kentucky

2015: Albany hosted #1 UCONN, Greensboro hosted #1 South Carolina and #4 North Carolina

2014: Stanford hosted #2 Stanford, Lincoln hosted #4 Nebraska, Louisville hosted #3 Louisville, Notre Dame hosted #1 Notre Dame

2013: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Norfolk hosted #2 Duke

2012: Kingston hosted #1 UCONN, Fresno hosted #1 Stanford

2011: Dallas hosted #1 Baylor and #2 Texas A&M, Dayton hosted #4 Ohio State, Philadelphia hosted #4 Maryland

2010: Dayton hosted #2 Ohio State, Memphis hosted #1 Tennessee, Sacramento hosted #1 Stanford

Out of 33 potential hometown teams, 32 times the committee has put the top 4 seeded hometown team in the nearby regional. Even if you exclude all of the #1 seeds, 15 of 16 teams seeded 2-4 were placed in the nearby regional. There isn't another top 16 program within driving distance from Portland, so Oregon State is all but a lock to end up in Portland unless the committee changes their philosophy.
 
Bt
Vowelguy said:
If iowa wins out, doubtful they move all the way to 2 overall, and certainly not if ucla or Stanford win the pac.

Unlikely to me that UConn moves from 10 to 7 just by beating Creighton again. Would need not just losses but bad losses by teams ahead of them.

Also NCSt and OreSt have potential to leap over UConn with conf tourney titles (unlikely for NCS given how they’ve been trending).
Expand ...

Btw I think UConn is 3 with Syracuse the 6, basically guaranteeing one northeastern team in Albany.
 
Vowelguy said:
Bt

Btw I think UConn is 3 with Syracuse the 6, basically guaranteeing one northeastern team in Albany.
Expand ...

Charlie has Duke as the 6th with UConn at the moment. Syracuse and Duke could meet next Friday here in Greensboro.
 
Vowelguy said:
The something strange is the PAC.

If Stanford and UCla are 1 seeds and Oregonst is the 3rd or 4th pac team, then nearly impossible for OreSt to be sent west.
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There's going to be 5-6 PAC teams who get top 4 seeds, it'll be impossible to keep all of the top 4 seeded Pac-12 schools in different brackets. The NCAA tries to avoid intraconference matchups until the regional final (bottom of page 3) which isn't a problem if Portland has two #1 Pac 12 seeds and Oregon State as a 3.

 
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