Today's Top 25 and 1 Highlights our Issue | The Boneyard

Today's Top 25 and 1 Highlights our Issue

The Link is correct but shows the old Purdue article for some reason. The Title is:

College basketball rankings: UConn's seeding in NCAA Tournament could be hurt by weak Big East schedule​

The Huskies are 22-1 but only have five wins vs. Quadrant 1 opponents so far this season​

 
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Sure Q1 wins are a factor but seems a bit overstated. If the article is correct, UConn is 6-1 in Q1 games and has 4 remaining. So their record will be somewhere between 10-1 and 6-5. Arizona is 9-0 with 8 remaining. So they will be somewhere between 17-0 and 9-8. Let's say UConn ends of 10-1 and Arizona ends up 15-2. Will those extra wins keep AZ ahead of us? I doubt it. If we win we will be fine. If we end of 9-2 and AZ is 15-2, then sure, you give the nod to AZ. This seems like more of a tie breaker situation than a true determining factor. But it seems to me AZ harder schedule makes it less likely they stay #1 and we are more likely to do so.
 
Many people have stated that the committee really looks more at Q1 + Q2 wins together rather than just Q1. In that case we’re fine…
Mich- 15
Duke - 14
UConn -13
Iowa st- 13
Zona -12
Illinois - 10
Zags- 9
Purdue - 8
 
Top 15 teams by NET rating.

Records against fellow top 15 teams.

https://bracketologists.com

with the obvious caveats that the data is as of this moment...and would be different if i did top 20 rather than top 15 (esp since three of our wins are against 12, 13, and 15)
 

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I’m of the keep winning mentality.
There seems to be an element of CFB percolating into CBB.

In FB, the national debate is almost mandatory given few games, 100+ teams, and the final polls which dictate who is in the CFP.

By and large, CBB is solved on the court. At this point, barring a complete meltdown, UConn is a Top seed. At worst a 2 seed.

just play the games and control what you can. Everything else will work itself out.
 
Might as well throw WAB into the discussion also. UConn is #3. Just ahead of mighty Michigan.

If you click on each team you can see the values that each game gave a team. So for example UConn's best win was at Kansas and gave them 0.87, followed closely by neutral site wins against Florida (0.83) and Illinois (0.82). The Arizona loss is a -0.22. The UNH and Bryant games were a whopping 0.01 each.

 
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"Currently ranked"..but they did face a ranked SHall team who is probably still top 40 and with a string of wins could climb back in. Nova knocking on the door too, top 35 I'd say.
 
Donyell 360 said:
Sure Q1 wins are a factor but seems a bit overstated. If the article is correct, UConn is 6-1 in Q1 games and has 4 remaining. So their record will be somewhere between 10-1 and 6-5. Arizona is 9-0 with 8 remaining. So they will be somewhere between 17-0 and 9-8. Let's say UConn ends of 10-1 and Arizona ends up 15-2. Will those extra wins keep AZ ahead of us? I doubt it. If we win we will be fine. If we end of 9-2 and AZ is 15-2, then sure, you give the nod to AZ. This seems like more of a tie breaker situation than a true determining factor. But it seems to me AZ harder schedule makes it less likely they stay #1 and we are more likely to do so.
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Looking at Quad 1 wins is a simple starting point in picking between top clubs. It’s not anywhere near the finish line. A road win at Creighton, or the equivalent in another power conference, is nowhere in the vicinity of importance of neutral court wins against Illinois, Florida and BYU and a road win at Kansas. We all need to stop looking at the simplest metrics and not the more complicated analysis of who did you beat, who did you lose to and where.
 
GampelGladiator said:
Top 15 teams by NET rating.

Records against fellow top 15 teams.

https://bracketologists.com

with the obvious caveats that the data is as of this moment...and would be different if i did top 20 rather than top 15 (esp since three of our wins are against 12, 13, and 15)

View attachment 116760
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This. Looking at Quad 1 records is critical on the bubble. When you’re comparing top teams for the highest rankings, more weight is given to how each team did against truly top teams.
 
I happened to look at the teams that were actually Q1 and realized that there are a lot of very bad teams and mid majors in Q1. Yale is Q1.

Call me crazy, but I'd put more stock in # of wins over the top 20 ranked teams than I would Q1.

I'm not impressed by your wins over Santa Clara and Tulsa
 
upstater said:
I happened to look at the teams that were actually Q1 and realized that there are a lot of very bad teams and mid majors in Q1. Yale is Q1.
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Yale is 63rd right now, which means it'd be a Q1 game if you played at Yale, but it wouldn't be if you played them neutral or at home.
 
“Only” 6 Q1 wins doesn’t really make sense. Here are the teams that have 6+ Q1 wins:

Arizona: 9-0 in Q1, they’re cruising
Duke: 9-1 in Q1. Also cruising
Illinois: 7-3 in Q1. So 1 more win but 2 more losses
Michigan: 7-0 in Q1 but they have a Q2 loss
Kansas: 6-5 in Q1
Purdue: 6-4
Nebraska: 6-2

Then UConn at 6-1

If I had to pick the 1 and 2 seeds from nothing but the information above, I’d give the 1s to Arizona, Duke, Michigan, UConn. And the 2s to Illinois, Kansas, Purdue, Nebraska
 
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REB1094 said:
“Only” 6 Q1 wins doesn’t really make sense. Here are the teams that have 6+ Q1 wins:

Arizona: 9-0 in Q1, they’re cruising
Duke: 9-1 in Q1. Also cruising
Illinois: 7-3 in Q1. So 1 more win but 2 more losses
Michigan: 7-0 in Q1 but they have a Q2 loss
Kansas: 6-5 in Q1
Purdue: 6-4
Nebraska: 6-2

Then UConn at 6-1

If I had to pick the 1 and 2 seeds from nothing but the information above, I’d give the 1s to Arizona, Duke, Michigan, UConn. And the 2s to Illinois, Kansas, Purdue, Nebraska
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Two's right now would be Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa St, Houston. Illinois is likely that team lining up to steal a 1 if anyone falters.

It'll be interesting to see how the pundits view us if we happen to lose to StJ Friday, and if we stay on the 1 line or move off, especially when the first team up is one we beat head to head.
 
Leebo said:
Yale is 63rd right now, which means it'd be a Q1 game if you played at Yale, but it wouldn't be if you played them neutral or at home.
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When I last looked they were higher.

But regardless, I could make a list.

And I'm sure the teams I list below might not be there when anyone reads this post.

Utah St, St Mary's, Santa Clara, Cal, TCU, Akron.

I can't wrap my mind around the idea that beating these teams is a much bigger deal than beating Butler.

It's the same. And yet they're counted differently.

This is why I should hope a note would be made below each of the top teams and it reads:

UConn: wins over ranked teams Illinois, Kansas, Florida, BYU, St. John's; loss to Arizona.
 
The one metric you cant measure, in my opinion, is the most important in the tourney: confidence/swagger/conviction
Whatever you want to call it. No team in the past 30 years has exemplified this more than UConn.
Take a job interview- you can have the best resume but if the vibe you're giving off is wrong you will probably be passed over.

We have the advantage in every tourney we play simply because of the letters on our chest. And I'm not being cute
 
Jaydumo20 said:
The one metric you cant measure, in my opinion, is the most important in the tourney: confidence/swagger/conviction
Whatever you want to call it. No team in the past 30 years has exemplified this more than UConn.
Take a job interview- you can have the best resume but if the vibe you're giving off is wrong you will probably be passed over.

We have the advantage in every tourney we play simply because of the letters on our chest. And I'm not being cute
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You should come up with the DUM SWAG
 
Counting up your wins before they hatch is bad luck. Hate to be Debbie Downer but what is our seed if we go 1 and 1 with St. John’s and lose to them in the BE tournament?
 
jibsey said:
Counting up your wins before they hatch is bad luck. Hate to be Debbie Downer but what is our seed if we go 1 and 1 with St. John’s and lose to them in the BE tournament?
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Probably still a 1 (but likely going to the South regional).
 
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jibsey said:
Counting up your wins before they hatch is bad luck. Hate to be Debbie Downer but what is our seed if we go 1 and 1 with St. John’s and lose to them in the BE tournament?
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So hard to say. It’s going to depend on how the rest of the seasons play out at the top of the B12 and B10. Each could land two 1 seeds.

I’d say likely a 2 seed.
 
Hopefully Gonzaga's loss to Q3 Portland ends their hopes of stealing a #1 seed (in a situation where the committee doesn't want to pick between P4 teams).
 
Right now, Illinois is the biggest threat for a 1 seed if they beat Michigan. But if we cruise with minimal losses, the committee would likely not place us behind a team we beat beforehand
 
GampelGladiator said:
Hopefully Gonzaga's loss to Q3 Portland ends their hopes of stealing a #1 seed (in a situation where the committee doesn't want to pick between P4 teams).
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Gonzaga is done. They might not get anything better than a 4 to be real
 
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