To AD Dave: The New Big East Is Not the Old Big East

[billybud]

So you’re saying there will be a next expansion? Interesting.

No...I did not say that...

I said that money and ESPN would drive the next ACC expansion....

Assuming that there was to be an expansion...and I don't see it in the immediate future. It is true that the ACC wants to open up their contract and adding either Notre Dame or another team would do that, But I don't see the added value to ESPN...and why tear up a contract with 15 years left on it that is in ESPN's favor?

 

[billybud]

Butch....

I have been to the Fire Ant Festival...an hour and a half drive from Tallahassee....

Fire Ant Festival: Central Georgia’s Leading Family Event - ResortsandLodges.com

www.resortsandlodges.com

We have rtidden our Harley's to a lot of these events near Tallahassee...Possum Festival in Wassau, Mule Day in Calvary, Rattlesnake Roundup, Appalachicola Seafood Festival, Watermelon Festival, Worm Grunting Festival...etc

 

[CL82]

No...I did not say that...

I said that money and ESPN would drive the next ACC expansion....

Assuming that there was to be an expansion...and I don't see it in the immediate future. It is true that the ACC wants to open up their contract and adding either Notre Dame or another team would do that, But I don't see the added value to ESPN...and why tear up a contract with 15 years left on it that is in ESPN's favor?

Ah, so it was just “fan speculation”.

 

[billybud]

Ah, so it was just “fan speculation”.

Always is...you won't see anything official until something happens.

But it would be foolish to discount that money and ESPN would be the determinants of any ACC expansion.

 

[CL82]

Always is...you won't see anything official until something happens.

But it would be foolish to discount that money and ESPN would be the determinants of any ACC expansion.

Has anyone done that? Just wondering.

 

[billybud]

Has anyone done that? Just wondering.

Oh sure...fans posting..."our academics"...or "our elite basketball"...or "our past relationships with former Big East teams"..etc.

It will be a flat money decision...which program/s bring the most value to ESPN and thus an increase in the ACC media contract. Notre Dame is a given. After that..?

The ACC does have more "leeway" than the B1G....it would take a lot less added value to make financial sense for the ACC than to the B1G....where an additional program would have to bring in $50 plus million a year to not cut up smaller slices of the pie.

 

[billybud]

We all speculate...and on a basis other than money....geography, rivalries, etc...because nobody knows how ESPN has valued programs.

All we do know is that the Big 12 could not find a program that moved the accounting books...and they passed on expansion.

As much as I do not like the thought...I believe that the ACC's programs will play in a perpetual program financial twilight while the sun is shining on the SEC/Big Ten....

But it is better than the dark...and as fans, we believe it is better to light a single candle than to curse the darkness.

 

[HuskyHawk]

We all speculate...and on a basis other than money....geography, rivalries, etc...because nobody knows how ESPN has valued programs.

All we do know is that the Big 12 could not find a program that moved the accounting books...and they passed on expansion.

As much as I do not like the thought...I believe that the ACC's programs will play in a perpetual program financial twilight while the sun is shining on the SEC/Big Ten....

But it is better than the dark...and as fans, we believe it is better to light a single candle than to curse the darkness.

I don't expect to see any network moving to expand the payout for live sports right now. The environment is too uncertain. Both due to technological changes, person changes and habits and the pandemic, which could alter college sports in dramatic and lasting ways.

ESPN's ability to pay what it does is tied directly to cable TV, which is waning.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I don't expect to see any network moving to expand the payout for live sports right now. The environment is too uncertain. Both due to technological changes, person changes and habits and the pandemic, which could alter college sports in dramatic and lasting ways.

ESPN's ability to pay what it does is tied directly to cable TV, which is waning.

Inside SEC's 10-Year Deal With ABC Starting in 2024

In four years, there will be no more SEC on CBS. The broadcasting rights to its marquee matchups are heading to ABC.

www.si.com

ESPN just increased the SEC payout from $55MM to $300MM/year. I would say that's a significant increase.

 

[billybud]

Some random coffee cloud thoughts:

Yep...Streaming is cutting into "traditional" cable and satellite. And inventory is being shuffled around. NBC is shutting down its cable sports channel....moving some stuff to USA.

Comcast owns NBC and this was probably the result of a direct order from the parent company.

Of course, Comcast does not want to pay for the ACCN and that is part of their feud with Disney...I would think that Comcast is feeling some threat from the Disney + streaming channel (subscriptions greater than predicted)...but when Comcast's contract with Disney is up, they may have little choice if they want Disney/ABC offerings.

In two years Comcast is going to have to negotiate with Disney. There are 48 channels in the Disney family. Therefore Comcast is going to have to take the ACC network whether they want it or not. And if they don’t want that network they don’t get any of the 48 channels Disney has. That includes ESPN, of course.

NBC and the Irish....Notre Dame's contract expires with NBC in two years. Does Notre Dame want to be the only college sports broadcast by NBC? Will people hunt for their games on a channel not usually viewed for college sports?

ESPN....they have gone all-in on college football...now owning the SEC, ACC, and one half of the Big Ten...and the Big 12, American, Sunbelt, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and PAC 12 are covered by the mothership.

Disney/ESPN has been moving towards the streaming future while balancing the income derived from current linear channels.

 

[CL82]

Oh sure...fans posting..."our academics"...or "our elite basketball"...or "our past relationships with former Big East teams"..etc.

It will be a flat money decision...which program/s bring the most value to ESPN and thus an increase in the ACC media contract. Notre Dame is a given. After that..?

The ACC does have more "leeway" than the B1G....it would take a lot less added value to make financial sense for the ACC than to the B1G....where an additional program would have to bring in $50 plus million a year to not cut up smaller slices of the pie.

Well, I don’t know for sure about the specific posts, but I suspect that is in addition to it being economically viable. I think most people have a fundamental grasp of capitalism on this board. But, I do you’ve been posting to the contrary in this thread, For whatever reason, I think you and I agree that the engine that drove the last burst of conference realignment, namely the media rights bubble, has burst. If there is anything else that can replace it, maybe online subscriptions, I guess.

 

[billybud]

One might take a look at the top markets for ESPN over the years...places like Birmingham, Charlotte, Raleigh, Memphis....not New York, LA, Detroit...or the large markets that you might expect.

 

[billybud]

These threads are like a group of guys standing around with a beer, chatting.

There are actually three conversations going on simultaneausly...and that's why we see variance in posts...

1....What do we, as a fan, personally want to see in conference realignment.

2....What teams do we think might be targets and why.

3....And, what are the real odds of realignment happening and the factors that play in.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Well, I don’t know for sure about the specific posts, but I suspect that is in addition to it being economically viable. I think most people have a fundamental grasp of capitalism on this board. But, I do you’ve been posting to the contrary in this thread, For whatever reason, I think you and I agree that the engine that drove the last burst of conference realignment, namely the media rights bubble, has burst. If there is anything else that can replace it, maybe online subscriptions, I guess.

Inside SEC's 10-Year Deal With ABC Starting in 2024

In four years, there will be no more SEC on CBS. The broadcasting rights to its marquee matchups are heading to ABC.

www.si.com

ESPN just increased the SEC payout from $55MM to $300MM. I would say that's a significant increase.

There continues to be this fallacy that the sports media bubble has burst. Meanwhile ESPN and others continue to throw more and more money at live sports programming.

 

[Kolumbo]

A short interesting read by a kid from OK last August.

Bring back normal: A plea for realignment amid chaotic times in college football - Sports Illustrated Oklahoma Sooners News, Analysis and More

"Those historically relevant matchups are far preferable to watching Nebraska square off with Northwestern, or watching A&M do battle with Kentucky, or watching Miami take on Boston College."

"I want to give a closing nod to the MAC, because it is in many ways the perfect model of what a football conference should look like. It's the only conference that has ostensibly paid any mind to geography, as it consists of six Ohio schools, three Michigan schools, and one school apiece from Indiana, Illinois and New York. The twelve member institutions are tidily arranged into two divisions. One division consists of the conference's six easternmost schools, and the other consists of its six westernmost schools."

 

[CL82]

There continues to be this fallacy that the sports media bubble has burst. Meanwhile ESPN and others continue to throw more and more money at live sports programming.

I hope you are right especially since the Big East is the next deal to be renegotiated. Meanwhile ESPN is losing subscribers and firing staff.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I hope you are right especially since the Big East is the next deal to be renegotiated. Meanwhile ESPN is losing subscribers and firing staff.

Network providers will continue to pay for live sports content. The method in which it is delivered may/will change i.e. watching on phones and tablets instead of TV's but owning broadcast rights will still be of value.

I read recently that CBS has sold all of its available Super Bowl ad time at $5.5MM/30 second spot.

It's basically the only live programming left that can generate any real advertising revenue for them.

 

[billybud]

Network providers will continue to pay for live sports content. The method in which it is delivered may/will change i.e. watching on phones and tablets instead of TV's but owning broadcast rights will still be of value.

I read recently that CBS has sold all of its available Super Bowl ad time at $5.5MM/30 second spot.

It's basically the only live programming left that can generate any real advertising revenue for them.

Yes...

Content is still king...you can transmit many ways...but you have to pay the owners of the content...