Time to Change Narrative-Update

[87Xfer]

Per poster's comment.. Expectation that the majority of posters think this will be one of hardest games -if not the hardest--is bizarre..in his opinion. My opinion is contrary to that position.. On the Yard.. we express opinions--Amirite? I thought that was a wild take speaking for the majority of posters by a singular poster. But that's his opinion and that's ok. We disagree. Certain posters like to provoke.. As I'm sure you'll see in who "likes" your comments

And the dictionary will tell you there is a difference between arrogance and confidence. Nova is not rolling over for us on Sat. You can take that to the bank. Based on what we know about the two teams.

 

[Matt1010]

Kenpom has us favored by about 8.5 I think.

Kenpom has us favored by 5, and the actual line will probably be UConn -2

 

[HuskyHawk]

Your opinion is arrogant based on what we know about each team at this point in time and the history of BE teams winning at home in the conference. Ed Cooley was talkin' about you.. Big difference between arrogance and confidence. Respect your opponent.. Bizarre not to do so.

UConn--as good as their season has been.. Has not won vs the top 5 BE teams on their home courts(exception in the top 5- UConn)--Away games for us-yet this season.. X/Prov/Marq/SH/Creighton. .In most of these games UConn was favored to win by Vegas.

This will be a BET level intensity game based on what's on the line for Nova.. We will need our A game to grab a W.. I am confident we will win a closely contested game.. In overtime..

Bah. You over-emphasize conference results. UConn has been the highest rated team in the Big East in NET, RPI, KenPom whatever metric you want to use, all season long. It's the best team in the league, end of story. Does the best team win every game? Obviously not.

I think this game is a toss-up. Even if UConn loses, UConn is still the better team.

 

[Umami Zen]

Why?..we can’t think our team is the best?…this is a Uconn board?…isn’t it?

We agree on which team is best..We may disagree on underestimating our opponent's ability to win at home.. And thus..At this time of year based on what Nova has on the line.. As the line on the game for UConn continues to drift down towards -2 for UConn by tip-off... What does Vegas know that we don't??

 

[UChusky916]

We've had a hard time on the road against the top teams in BE play.

Nova has played as well as any team in the conference the past few weeks.

This will be a great test to see if this team is really a national championship contender or not. Let's see if we can demonstrate some toughness on the road and get a big W.

 

[giddyup]

I’d expect Nova to be backing us down to draw fouls on Adama early…their usual old man basketball jive. We can’t take the bait. I’d love to see us in a 2-3 zone to start just to take away that move. The good news is Neptune is a in-game dolt. So, if Hurley brings his brain cells we should have an advantage. .

 

[Billy Jack]

Yeah who the hell has Seton Hall beaten this year?

They beat us!

3 Quad 1 wins:

UConn
Rutgers
Memphis

 

[superjohn]

We agree on which team is best..We may disagree on underestimating our opponent's ability to win at home.. And thus..At this time of year based on what Nova has on the line.. As the line on the game for UConn continues to drift down towards -2 for UConn by tip-off... What does Vegas know that we don't??

Where are you getting your betting lines from?

 

[Billy Jack]

Per poster's comment.. Expectation that the majority of posters think this will be one of hardest games -if not the hardest--is bizarre..in his opinion.

Pavlovian conditioning. Just the mention of Villanova commands respect because 3 Final 4’s and 2 NC’s in the past 6 tournaments, 9 consecutive buds, and and 9 straight BE champs ( regular season &/or tournament).

You’re right, of course. This is not those teams.

 

[jibsey]

14-0 we could be arrogant. Not anymore.

 

[August_West]

Just stop. How is it "arrogant" for him to say it's a game we will be favored in, when you yourself turn around and say "I am confident we will win...". We're a 66% favorite to win according to KenPom. Some really weird takes around here, but I guess that's par for the course.

What was our kenpom odds for St. John’s at home?

 

[87Xfer]

What was our kenpom odds for St. John’s at home?

If I'm reading this correctly, it was 82.7%

 

[87Xfer]

What was our kenpom odds for St. John’s at home?

oops, looks like you were asking about the XL Center game. According to this, looks like we were favored at 92.6%

 

[Matt1010]

Where are you getting your betting lines from?

There isn't even a line that's been released yet, but UConn -2ish does sound right. Over the past few games the Nova spreads have closed 2-3 points more in their favor compared to Kenpom lines.

 

[hayman522]

Yeah who the hell has Seton Hall beaten this year?

Us for one.

 

[Get a Job]

Your opinion is arrogant based on what we know about each team at this point in time and the history of BE teams winning at home in the conference. Ed Cooley was talkin' about you.. Big difference between arrogance and confidence. Respect your opponent.. Bizarre not to do so.

UConn--as good as their season has been.. Has not won vs the top 5 BE teams on their home courts(exception in the top 5- UConn)--Away games for us-yet this season.. X/Prov/Marq/SH/Creighton. .In most of these games UConn was favored to win by Vegas.

This will be a BET level intensity game based on what's on the line for Nova.. We will need our A game to grab a W.. I am confident we will win a closely contested game.. In overtime..

I will definitely cop to my post being arrogant, but only in the sense that I was basically saying, "You all are a bunch of pants-poopers, and I'm one of the few who are looking at things realistically." In other words, I am arrogant in regard to other posters.

My comments on the relative strength of Villanova are not coming from a place of arrogance. I have what I consider to be an appropriate amount of respect for their team at this point. They are good. They have a good-but-less-than-50% of winning. They are clicking at the right time of year. That said, the game tomorrow is not comparable in difficulty to @Xavier, @Creighton, vs. Alabama, or @Marquette, to name some examples. There are other examples that we've played that I consider more difficult than tomorrow's matchup, but I'd be less able to defend them as vigorously as the first set of examples.

(Please note: The failure to mention Providence in this post was arrogant, and intentional )

 

[auror]

I understand what NET and Kenpom say, but this is why eye test still matters. At this point in the season Villanova, is definitely a stronger win than Iowa St. Again, I understand that goes against the metrics but Iowa St has completely fallen off. Caleb Grill is off the team, they've lost 8 of their last 10 games, and are 7-10 in 2023. Meanwhile Villanova has won 7 of their last 8 and looks like a tank right now. But because Iowa St is in the Big 12 that game matters more? Just seems weird to me. Anyways, you're right in the committee's eyes, but in terms of where we stand in terms of the postseason, this game is a massive check point to see where we stand.

By WAB, neutral Iowa St and road Nova are worth 0.61 and 0.58, basically identitical. So the metrics are pretty much right there with you, but IF Nova is underrated (I think they probably are a little bit, but not as much as people think), then it could swing a bit more in the @Nova direction.

What was our kenpom odds for St. John’s at home?

We were 91% chance to win, 15 point favorites in that game.

 

[Umami Zen]

I will definitely cop to my post being arrogant, but only in the sense that I was basically saying, "You all are a bunch of pants-poopers, and I'm one of the few who are looking at things realistically." In other words, I am arrogant in regard to other posters.

My comments on the relative strength of Villanova are not coming from a place of arrogance. I have what I consider to be an appropriate amount of respect for their team at this point. They are good. They have a good-but-less-than-50% of winning. They are clicking at the right time of year. That said, the game tomorrow is not comparable in difficulty to @Xavier, @Creighton, vs. Alabama, or @Marquette, to name some examples. There are other examples that we've played that I consider more difficult than tomorrow's matchup, but I'd be less able to defend them as vigorously as the first set of examples.

(Please note: The failure to mention Providence in this post was arrogant, and intentional )

IMO.. My respect for Villanova is different than yours.. Villanova has 3 guys starting tomorrow who each played between 30-39 minutes in last year's Final Four game. They have a starting freshman-Whitmore- who is projected to go pro.. And a returning starter from achilles injury-Justin Moore-who was a pro prospect pre-injury. 3 of these guys are playing their last home game tomorrow night. They are one of the hottest teams in the BE at this moment.. Largely due to Moore's return. It is well-known that the better BE teams win at home as is true this year.

Despite these challenges and hurdles.. And because I am a UConn fan who tries to be balanced in my assessment of our opponents.. I still believe we will win a close game. It is a great matchup for us pre-BET/Tournament.

I think we can agree on one thing.. We like our team's chances of winning on Sat.

 

[superjohn]

There isn't even a line that's been released yet, but UConn -2ish does sound right. Over the past few games the Nova spreads have closed 2-3 points more in their favor compared to Kenpom lines.

I was going to wait for the line to come out tonight but apparently Umami has some line he saw a while ago and the line keeps drifting down.

 

[Umami Zen]

I was going to wait for the line to come out tonight but apparently Umami has some line he saw a while ago and the line keeps drifting down.

I'm sure you'll show me why I'm wrong..But Actionnetwork has the opening spread at -1.5 UConn..Posted five hours ago.. Full disclosure SJ ..I'm not a bettor.. Surprised??

 

[UConnSwag11]

Nova looks good lately but some of our fanbase is making them out to be the '86 Celtics. They're playing better but it's still a 14-14 team coached by Kyle Neptune who snuck away with a win by the skin of their teeth against Seton Hall.

Nova would be good for us to everything right and win convincingly on the road. We’ll see if the games close or if we’re down, if Hurley has adjusted his in game coaching. What matters is winning Thursday and then winning the whole thing. As you or @aburks41 said earlier this year, every year we have mid season issues, we finish strong, and then flameout in the post season.

This should be the year that we make a run in the post season. This team has proven it’s one of the best in the country.

 

[UConnSwag11]

I was going to wait for the line to come out tonight but apparently Umami has some line he saw a while ago and the line keeps drifting down.

Action says UCONN -1.5

 

[superjohn]

I'm sure you'll show me why I'm wrong..But Actionnetwork has the opening spread at -1.5 UConn..Posted five hours ago.. Full disclosure SJ ..I'm not a bettor.. Surprised??

That's not Vegas. The line might be right there when it comes out.

 

[Umami Zen]

That's not Vegas. The line might be right there when it comes out.

There you go..I learned something today from you SJ.. Always a good day when you learn something new. Will be curious to see where the smart money is with the Vegas line..

 

[ToolzieFan]

Nova is one of the hottest teams in the big east over the last month.

But UConn has been hotter.

Since Feb 1st.

UConn and Marquette are 7 of 8, with Marquette’s loss to UConn. It’s really arguable to say UConn has been the best team in the BE over the last thirty days.

Nova is 6-3
Crieghton 6-3
X 5-3
PC 4-4

Not only has UConn been the best team in the Big East in the past month, but we’ve been arguably the best team in the country. Let’s keep things rolling tonight and make a statement next week

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