Tiers in Women's College Basketball

[bballnut90]

I think this weekend cemented that UCONN is again in a different tier from everyone else right now. Rather than create a top 10 rankings team, I thought I'd share how I'd group teams in tiers:
Tier 1 (Title Favorite):
UConn-I don't see them losing again this year. They have strong offensive weapons at every position and a fantastic shot blocker/rebounder in Stokes when healthy. With sub par performances from Stewart, KML and Jefferson, they throttled Notre Dame by 18 on the road.

Tier 2 (Title Threat):
Notre Dame-What's made Notre Dame so dangerous the last 4-5 years is they have multiple slashers and offensive threats. Diggins, McBride, Loyd, and Novosel were all very difficult match ups because they could take the ball to the basket, hit mid range, and shoot from distance. This year they just have Loyd which isn't enough. Turner has greatness written all over her, I'm anxious to see if she'll be that consistent 13-15 ppg type of player once the conference season starts. Having Turner in the line up should make for a more interesting match up if they face UCONN again in March/April. I think by season's end, they'll be alone in Tier 2.

Texas-Still a bit on the fence about this team even though they have the huge win against Stanford and handily beat Tennessee. Outside of their posts, they are not a strong offensive team. In two weeks they have a duel with A&M which should be more telling.

Tier 3 (Final Four Threat/Dangerous Post Season Team)
Texas A&M-Another team I'm a bit on the fence about. I think A&M will have a few bad games, maybe a bad loss or two throughout the season, but they have the potential to be a major bracket buster. The Courtneys have very good midrange jumpers and are strong athletes. A&M is well coached and plays strong defense, they might not regularly blow out teams by 40-50, but I think they can hang with anyone.

South Carolina-First big win for USC today against Duke--although they needed a miracle to get it. South Carolina has a boat load of talent but they don't play very cohesive basketball. I think they'll continue to consistently clobber outmatched opponents but will struggle against quality competition. I think they'll have a hard time against A&M, Tennessee and look for a loss against UCONN if the #1 ranking is still on the line. Honestly, I think they'll move down from Tier 3 as the season progresses.

North Carolina-UNC looks better this year without DeShields, I wont deny that. They have a gifted sophomore class and a great junior in McDaniel. UNC is back to turnovers galore, but with their horses I could see UNC in the Final Four this year.

Tennessee-They had an awful loss to UT-Chat and looked bad against Texas, but since the 2008 season, Tennessee has always been very up and down early on. They'll look fantastic one night, then mediocre the next. With Harrison healthy, I think Tennessee climbs into the top 7-8 teams. Graves looks better this year, Harrison is great and Tennessee's line up is talented. I think the lack of offense and on court chemistry prevents them from moving into Tier 2.

Rutgers-I cannot believe a CViv team dropped 100 and followed it up with a 96 point outing. They guard play looks great this year, they'll be a title favorite in the Big Ten. Looking forward to the match up with Tennessee.

Tier 4 (Capable of knocking off Final Four threats, also could easily fall out of top 10-15 teams)
Duke-Three tough losses in a row, Duke has the talent to be a dangerous team this year. They need to figure out the point guard situation, and McCallie's track record isn't promising for Duke's chances to win close games or make it far in the tournament, but they have a great freshmen class this year.

Stanford-As great as they looked against UCONN, they have been downright bad since. Thompson/Orrange are offensive threats, but Stanford no inside game. In an improved Pac-12, it will be harder for Stanford to walk away with a title this year.

Kentucky-Impressive come from behind win today and great win against Baylor. Kentucky doesn't pose a threat to a team like UCONN, nor do I think they can make the Final Four this year, but they could upset a Final Four caliber team this year.

Baylor-They have dominated a cupcake schedule thus far besides their 10 point loss at Kentucky. Anxious to see them play a quality opponent. Nina Davis just dropped 43 today, btw.

Louisville-They have 2 outstanding freshmen but lost by 9 at home to Kentucky today. I could see them getting beat up in the ACC this year, but I could also see Louisville pulling off some big upsets.

Oregon State-First test is at UNC next week. I think they'll fall out of this tier as the season progresses.

Syracuse-I'll give them benefit of the doubt. Played a close, close game against South Carolina and have won the rest. They could be good this year.

 

[Rob Signor]

i agree that Uconn is the best team so far. Barring injury i feel we will be a lot better than we are now by the end of the season. Notre Dame with Turner will be fun to watch. Think the rest you mentioned are in a clump. I'm not putting Texas in the second tier yet. Time will tell.

 

[MarieYLee]

Tennessee in tier 3?

I would move Stanford to tier 3. They did beat UConn and played Texas tough. Orrange was in foul trouble that game. They did not look great against New Mexico (But missing Thompson) and lost to UNC. They beat Hawaii by 13, and Hawaii played both Cal (lost by 7) and UNC (lost by 9) tough, so I'm not sure they are that bad, and they blew out Praire View. So outside of NM (missing Thompson) and UNC, I'm not sure why people are saying they are "bad".

I might move Texas to tier 3 as well, but agree with UConn, then ND in the next tier and then a few teams.

 

[watanabe]

First and foremost, there is no tier two. It starts with UConn and then goes to tier three next. ND is rated too high and Texas (Texas?), what? Not a chance. Where the heck did you get that?

 

[TARZAN22]

The Big 12 period.Will surprise a lot team's this year.
It's strongest conference from Top to Bottom.
Texas is very strong this year.

 

[bballnut90]

First and foremost, there is no tier two. It starts with UConn and then goes to tier three next. ND is rated too high and Texas (Texas?), what? Not a chance. Where the heck did you get that?

Who else would you put above Texas and Notre Dame? Texas is undefeated and has 2 top 10 wins. Notre Dame has looked great in all of their games besides the UCONN game.

 

[bballnut90]

Tennessee in tier 3?

I would move Stanford to tier 3. They did beat UConn and played Texas tough. Orrange was in foul trouble that game. They did not look great against New Mexico (But missing Thompson) and lost to UNC. They beat Hawaii by 13, and Hawaii played both Cal (lost by 7) and UNC (lost by 9) tough, so I'm not sure they are that bad, and they blew out Praire View. So outside of NM (missing Thompson) and UNC, I'm not sure why people are saying they are "bad".

I might move Texas to tier 3 as well, but agree with UConn, then ND in the next tier and then a few teams.

The more they play, the more it appears the UCONN win was a fluke. Losing to Texas, getting crushed by UNC and nearly losing to New Mexico...not a real title threat IMO.

I think ND will establish itself as the 2nd best team, but there is no way you can include them and not Texas at this pont in the year

 

[Bayareahusky]

If this is as of right now, we are at the top......

As the year goes on, I would imagine the top WCBB teams will be fairly close...... just thinking aloud here, but I am not sure in Feb going into March that we will be clearly in a class by ourselves....... tho I hope so...... I expect us to be the best, but I have a lot of respect for ND, and the potential of SC.

Aside from those other two, I am not too worried about any of the other teams to compete for the big prize

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I agree the OP has one too many tiers near the top. There is UConn, which I suppose you could call 1A, then the 1B teams that are most likely to make the final 4. Then you have tier 2 - deep tourney runs and could upset the 1B's, and then tier 3 which are the teams that are expected to make the sweet 16 and maybe better. At least that is how I would do it, but I'm too tired to figure out the teams on each line. Rutgers may be Tier 2 or 3 in my reckoning, it is too early to be sure.

 

[easttexastrash]

Baylor lost to UK, which just beat Louisville, when without Dekeiya Cohen and Ieshia Small, and on the road. When Kristy Wallace returns from her stint with the Australian U19 team we will finally get to see Baylor at full strength.

Davis was tremendous today. There is no sophomore slump so far. She has increased her offensive production over last year.

 

[easttexastrash]

The more they play, the more it appears the UCONN win was a fluke. Losing to Texas, getting crushed by UNC and nearly losing to New Mexico...not a real title threat IMO.

I think ND will establish itself as the 2nd best team, but there is no way you can include them and not Texas at this pont in the year

IMO Texas is better than ND. Other than Lloyd ND has little offense.

 

[hoophuskee]

IMO Texas is better than ND. Other than Lloyd ND has little offense.

I don't believe that. Maybe -- but I seriously doubt it.

 

[easttexastrash]

I don't believe that. Maybe -- but I seriously doubt it.

ND is supposed to be the 2nd best team in the nation and was was just blown out by UCONN. I saw nothing to make me think ND is any better than Texaa or SC.

 

[hoophuskee]

ND is supposed to be the 2nd best team in the nation and was was just blown out by UCONN. I saw nothing to make me think ND is any better than Texaa or SC.

As you speak of these type of team I'm reminded of the old rivalry between Navrilitova and Evert. WHne Martina was domainting sport players such as Shirver and a few others went public stating while thye couldn't get Martian it was only a matter of tiem before they caught Chris. When Martina was aksed abotu this - she was bit incredulous sttaing they weren't as clsoe as they thought. Chris wound up blwoing away teh 3 seeds and below for several more years.

ND played a team that was unananimous number1 preseason pick in which the UCONN team was at the top of their game while ND didn't have their 2nd best player.

I hope you're right - I hope ND goes down but I think you're just as wrong as Pam Shirver and co. were wrong about Evert. Lloyd is the dominant player on the court.

 

[Bayareahusky]

I believe anyone who wants to ignore Notre Dame as a top shelf program on the basis of their performance yesterday I think is short sighted.....

For my money they are the 2nd best team in the country...... with possible exception of SC ..... a team that I have to see more.......

 

[Gate81]

I don't believe that. Maybe -- but I seriously doubt it.

so who stepped up from ND? Not Mabrey, not Cable....key is Turner? I think lots of people are down on Stanford because they lost to Texas (whom very few realized until recently is good), but Texas is VERY good. Ability to score via a variety of people, and are still missing their true center.

 

[hoophuskee]

so who stepped up from ND? Not Mabrey, not Cable....key is Turner? I think lots of people are down on Stanford because they lost to Texas (whom very few realized until recently is good), but Texas is VERY good. Ability to score via a variety of people, and are still missing their true center.

Consider the team they were playing against. We've seen enough of Mabrey to know she is a knock down shooter - she was off in this game. They didn't have their 2nd best player too, and expect Allen and Reimer to improve. All these kids have the luxury of playing with one of the top players in the game.

Lousiville has gotten annihilated by UCONN for quite a few years. If you go by how bad we've whipped them for so long then you'd wind up saying they were nothing more than a top 30-40 team.

Baylor gave UCONN the toughest game last year. Does this mean they were better than say Stanford?

 

[Bayareahusky]

I dont know about Baylor this year...... yes they have Davis..... and a couple of other promising players...... but last year Sims made them the team they were......

and this year...... the toughest team they play is KY who they already lost to........ only decent team they play is Texas, who is in their conference and they play twice.....if I was Baylor and I wanted to be relevant and in the spotlight, I would seek some tougher out of conference competition...... i was shocked looking at their schedule and the lack of quality competition.

 

[Plumber Luigi]

I break down Div I into two groups. First are the top 10 according to Jeff Sagarin. These could give UConn a challenge depending on fake, mojo, the basketball gods, etc. Second are everyone else who we get to use as practice to prepare, experiment, etc. for the teams in the first group.

 

[easttexastrash]

I dont know about Baylor this year. yes they have Davis..... and a couple of other promising players. but last year Sims made them the team they were.

and this year. the toughest team they play is KY who they already lost to... only decent team they play is Texas, who is in their conference and they play twice.....if I was Baylor and I wanted to be relevant and in the spotlight, I would seek some tougher out of conference competition. i was shocked looking at their schedule and the lack of quality competition.

I couldn't agree more. That schedule needs to toughen up.

 

[johnnyc]

If this is as of right now, we are at the top.

As the year goes on, I would imagine the top WCBB teams will be fairly close.

So UConn has reached it's peak and will not be getting any better?

 

[FairView]

If UConn continues on its current improvement curve, then it's UConn on top and tears for everyone else.

 

[watanabe]

So UConn has reached it's peak and will not be getting any better?

You know that's the jist I'm getting from these comments. They seem to believe that these are our golden years and that Geno is simply fiddling while Rome burns.

 

[asuwish]

I think this weekend cemented that UCONN is again in a different tier from everyone else right now. Rather than create a top 10 rankings team, I thought I'd share how I'd group teams in tiers:
Tier 1 (Title Favorite):
UConn-I don't see them losing again this year. They have strong offensive weapons at every position and a fantastic shot blocker/rebounder in Stokes when healthy. With sub par performances from Stewart, KML and Jefferson, they throttled Notre Dame by 18 on the road.

Tier 2 (Title Threat):
Notre Dame-What's made Notre Dame so dangerous the last 4-5 years is they have multiple slashers and offensive threats. Diggins, McBride, Loyd, and Novosel were all very difficult match ups because they could take the ball to the basket, hit mid range, and shoot from distance. This year they just have Loyd which isn't enough. Turner has greatness written all over her, I'm anxious to see if she'll be that consistent 13-15 ppg type of player once the conference season starts. Having Turner in the line up should make for a more interesting match up if they face UCONN again in March/April. I think by season's end, they'll be alone in Tier 2.

Texas-Still a bit on the fence about this team even though they have the huge win against Stanford and handily beat Tennessee. Outside of their posts, they are not a strong offensive team. In two weeks they have a duel with A&M which should be more telling.

Tier 3 (Final Four Threat/Dangerous Post Season Team)
Texas A&M-Another team I'm a bit on the fence about. I think A&M will have a few bad games, maybe a bad loss or two throughout the season, but they have the potential to be a major bracket buster. The Courtneys have very good midrange jumpers and are strong athletes. A&M is well coached and plays strong defense, they might not regularly blow out teams by 40-50, but I think they can hang with anyone.

South Carolina-First big win for USC today against Duke--although they needed a miracle to get it. South Carolina has a boat load of talent but they don't play very cohesive basketball. I think they'll continue to consistently clobber outmatched opponents but will struggle against quality competition. I think they'll have a hard time against A&M, Tennessee and look for a loss against UCONN if the #1 ranking is still on the line. Honestly, I think they'll move down from Tier 3 as the season progresses.

North Carolina-UNC looks better this year without DeShields, I wont deny that. They have a gifted sophomore class and a great junior in McDaniel. UNC is back to turnovers galore, but with their horses I could see UNC in the Final Four this year.

Tennessee-They had an awful loss to UT-Chat and looked bad against Texas, but since the 2008 season, Tennessee has always been very up and down early on. They'll look fantastic one night, then mediocre the next. With Harrison healthy, I think Tennessee climbs into the top 7-8 teams. Graves looks better this year, Harrison is great and Tennessee's line up is talented. I think the lack of offense and on court chemistry prevents them from moving into Tier 2.

Rutgers-I cannot believe a CViv team dropped 100 and followed it up with a 96 point outing. They guard play looks great this year, they'll be a title favorite in the Big Ten. Looking forward to the match up with Tennessee.

Tier 4 (Capable of knocking off Final Four threats, also could easily fall out of top 10-15 teams)
Duke-Three tough losses in a row, Duke has the talent to be a dangerous team this year. They need to figure out the point guard situation, and McCallie's track record isn't promising for Duke's chances to win close games or make it far in the tournament, but they have a great freshmen class this year.

Stanford-As great as they looked against UCONN, they have been downright bad since. Thompson/Orrange are offensive threats, but Stanford no inside game. In an improved Pac-12, it will be harder for Stanford to walk away with a title this year.

Kentucky-Impressive come from behind win today and great win against Baylor. Kentucky doesn't pose a threat to a team like UCONN, nor do I think they can make the Final Four this year, but they could upset a Final Four caliber team this year.

Baylor-They have dominated a cupcake schedule thus far besides their 10 point loss at Kentucky. Anxious to see them play a quality opponent. Nina Davis just dropped 43 today, btw.

Louisville-They have 2 outstanding freshmen but lost by 9 at home to Kentucky today. I could see them getting beat up in the ACC this year, but I could also see Louisville pulling off some big upsets.

Oregon State-First test is at UNC next week. I think they'll fall out of this tier as the season progresses.

Syracuse-I'll give them benefit of the doubt. Played a close, close game against South Carolina and have won the rest. They could be good this year.

SC is going to be there at the end. They haven't lost and has beaten (although not by a lot) some quality opponents. They return 5 starters and added Wilson and a PG from NY.
Uconn, ND (with Turner), SC, TX, Duke, A&M, KY, Rutgers, TN, & NC, are my teams at this point in the season to have the best shot to make the final 4 with the first 3 as my best bets and the others playing for the other spot depending on seeding.

 

[Geno-ista]

I think this weekend cemented that UCONN is again in a different tier from everyone else right now. Rather than create a top 10 rankings team, I thought I'd share how I'd group teams in tiers:
Tier 1 (Title Favorite):
UConn-I don't see them losing again this year. They have strong offensive weapons at every position and a fantastic shot blocker/rebounder in Stokes when healthy. With sub par performances from Stewart, KML and Jefferson, they throttled Notre Dame by 18 on the road.

Tier 2 (Title Threat):
Notre Dame-What's made Notre Dame so dangerous the last 4-5 years is they have multiple slashers and offensive threats. Diggins, McBride, Loyd, and Novosel were all very difficult match ups because they could take the ball to the basket, hit mid range, and shoot from distance. This year they just have Loyd which isn't enough. Turner has greatness written all over her, I'm anxious to see if she'll be that consistent 13-15 ppg type of player once the conference season starts. Having Turner in the line up should make for a more interesting match up if they face UCONN again in March/April. I think by season's end, they'll be alone in Tier 2.

Texas-Still a bit on the fence about this team even though they have the huge win against Stanford and handily beat Tennessee. Outside of their posts, they are not a strong offensive team. In two weeks they have a duel with A&M which should be more telling.

Tier 3 (Final Four Threat/Dangerous Post Season Team)
Texas A&M-Another team I'm a bit on the fence about. I think A&M will have a few bad games, maybe a bad loss or two throughout the season, but they have the potential to be a major bracket buster. The Courtneys have very good midrange jumpers and are strong athletes. A&M is well coached and plays strong defense, they might not regularly blow out teams by 40-50, but I think they can hang with anyone.

South Carolina-First big win for USC today against Duke--although they needed a miracle to get it. South Carolina has a boat load of talent but they don't play very cohesive basketball. I think they'll continue to consistently clobber outmatched opponents but will struggle against quality competition. I think they'll have a hard time against A&M, Tennessee and look for a loss against UCONN if the #1 ranking is still on the line. Honestly, I think they'll move down from Tier 3 as the season progresses.

North Carolina-UNC looks better this year without DeShields, I wont deny that. They have a gifted sophomore class and a great junior in McDaniel. UNC is back to turnovers galore, but with their horses I could see UNC in the Final Four this year.

Tennessee-They had an awful loss to UT-Chat and looked bad against Texas, but since the 2008 season, Tennessee has always been very up and down early on. They'll look fantastic one night, then mediocre the next. With Harrison healthy, I think Tennessee climbs into the top 7-8 teams. Graves looks better this year, Harrison is great and Tennessee's line up is talented. I think the lack of offense and on court chemistry prevents them from moving into Tier 2.

Rutgers-I cannot believe a CViv team dropped 100 and followed it up with a 96 point outing. They guard play looks great this year, they'll be a title favorite in the Big Ten. Looking forward to the match up with Tennessee.

Tier 4 (Capable of knocking off Final Four threats, also could easily fall out of top 10-15 teams)
Duke-Three tough losses in a row, Duke has the talent to be a dangerous team this year. They need to figure out the point guard situation, and McCallie's track record isn't promising for Duke's chances to win close games or make it far in the tournament, but they have a great freshmen class this year.

Stanford-As great as they looked against UCONN, they have been downright bad since. Thompson/Orrange are offensive threats, but Stanford no inside game. In an improved Pac-12, it will be harder for Stanford to walk away with a title this year.

Kentucky-Impressive come from behind win today and great win against Baylor. Kentucky doesn't pose a threat to a team like UCONN, nor do I think they can make the Final Four this year, but they could upset a Final Four caliber team this year.

Baylor-They have dominated a cupcake schedule thus far besides their 10 point loss at Kentucky. Anxious to see them play a quality opponent. Nina Davis just dropped 43 today, btw.

Louisville-They have 2 outstanding freshmen but lost by 9 at home to Kentucky today. I could see them getting beat up in the ACC this year, but I could also see Louisville pulling off some big upsets.

Oregon State-First test is at UNC next week. I think they'll fall out of this tier as the season progresses.

Syracuse-I'll give them benefit of the doubt. Played a close, close game against South Carolina and have won the rest. They could be good this year.

Great Post- Great thought process re the tiers. and very logical thought process re your analysis!!! thanks