Man, what a day so far. 7 top 25 teams lose to programs who likely are missing the tournament, including 4 teams ranked 8-12. Oregon State is also in a close one too against Cal who is 2-13 in Pac 12 player. So, what does it mean for seedings? Here's my take at this junction.
#1 Locks:
South Carolina
Baylor
Oregon
Likely in that order, although 2 and 3 may flip flop. At any rate, these are your clear cut top 3 teams we've seen all season.
Last #1 contenders/likely 2 seeds as of right now:
4. Maryland-if they win out, it'll be hard to deny them the last 1 seed. Very good SOS, #3 RPI, a slew of good wins against top 25 RPI and they're playing extremely well. Haven't had a tight game since their loss at Iowa.
5. Stanford-I think they're the only team that has the potential to surprass Maryland if Maryland wins out. Stanford's road to get there though is brutal. Home tomorrow vs. Oregon, 2 road games at the AZ schools, plus the Pac 12 tournament where they likely end up facing Oregon State or USC in the quarterfinals, then match up with UCLA in the semifinals, and Oregon in the title game. Brutal 6 game stretch ahead for the Card. If they win out or lose just 1, they'll likely get the bid over Maryland, but realistically they'll lose at least 2 of these games which pushes them on the outside.
6. UCONN-the Huskies can only hurt themselves the rest of the way, but I'll be stunned if they lose again prior to the NCAAs. If Maryland loses and Stanford drops 2, they may be able to sneak in and snag the last #1. Although much of it comes down to how the committee looks at Louisville's losses. Couple things to note--their 2 top RPI wins are ranked right around 25 after today. If the committee is numbers based and cares about wins vs. top 25 RPI, Ohio State/DePaul falling outside of top 25 could really hurt the Huskies. If they sneak in to the top 25, it'll help them. Just something to keep an eye on.
7. Louisville-pretty simple scenario: if they win out and the committee forgives their losses for Balogun being out, they should jump UCONN and may sneak in for the final #1 seed if Maryland/Stanford don't come through. If they win out and the committee doesn't forgive their losses, they aren't jumping UCONN/Maryland/Stanford. If they lose again, no #1 seed.
Contenders for final #2 seed/likely 3 seeds:
8. NC State-win out and win the ACC tournament and they jump to a 2 most likely. If they drop any games aside from Louisville in the ACC title game, they're probably on the 3 line.
9. Northwestern-their resume looks pretty darn good right now. Definitely a 2 if they win the Big Ten tourney. Likely a 3 if they don't but could move up to a 2 depending on how other teams implode.
10. UCLA-the loss today hurts UCLA big time, I think they'll need a strong PAC tournament to move back up. Beating Stanford head to head a 2nd time would be a great way to do that.
Should safely host first weekend:
11. Mississippi State-bad loss today, need to beat Arkansas to stay a 3. If they beat Arkansas and make the SEC semis, I think they're safely a 3.
12. Texas A&M-not a ton of marquee wins but no bad losses. Have a huge opportunity coming up at home vs. SC and in the SEC tourney.
13. Arizona-bad loss without Aari today, committee might be forgiving though. Rest of the resume is pretty good aside from the awful OOC. Should host with wins over Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona State. Beating Stanford would push them back on the 3 line.
Last in hosting position:
14. Iowa-have some good wins and bad losses. Appear to be safely a 4 right now.
15. DePaul-Nova was a bad loss today (especially since it was a blowout), but if they finish strong they'll host first weekend.
16. Gonzaga-as long as they win out, I think they'll host.
Outside looking in:
17. Missouri State
18. Oregon State
19. Indiana
20. Princeton
Would not be surprised at all if we continue to see these change a lot before the NCAAs.
