Thoughts on Top 4 Seeds After Today

[bballnut90]

Man, what a day so far. 7 top 25 teams lose to programs who likely are missing the tournament, including 4 teams ranked 8-12. Oregon State is also in a close one too against Cal who is 2-13 in Pac 12 player. So, what does it mean for seedings? Here's my take at this junction.

#1 Locks:
South Carolina
Baylor
Oregon

Likely in that order, although 2 and 3 may flip flop. At any rate, these are your clear cut top 3 teams we've seen all season.

Last #1 contenders/likely 2 seeds as of right now:
4. Maryland-if they win out, it'll be hard to deny them the last 1 seed. Very good SOS, #3 RPI, a slew of good wins against top 25 RPI and they're playing extremely well. Haven't had a tight game since their loss at Iowa.

5. Stanford-I think they're the only team that has the potential to surprass Maryland if Maryland wins out. Stanford's road to get there though is brutal. Home tomorrow vs. Oregon, 2 road games at the AZ schools, plus the Pac 12 tournament where they likely end up facing Oregon State or USC in the quarterfinals, then match up with UCLA in the semifinals, and Oregon in the title game. Brutal 6 game stretch ahead for the Card. If they win out or lose just 1, they'll likely get the bid over Maryland, but realistically they'll lose at least 2 of these games which pushes them on the outside.

6. UCONN-the Huskies can only hurt themselves the rest of the way, but I'll be stunned if they lose again prior to the NCAAs. If Maryland loses and Stanford drops 2, they may be able to sneak in and snag the last #1. Although much of it comes down to how the committee looks at Louisville's losses. Couple things to note--their 2 top RPI wins are ranked right around 25 after today. If the committee is numbers based and cares about wins vs. top 25 RPI, Ohio State/DePaul falling outside of top 25 could really hurt the Huskies. If they sneak in to the top 25, it'll help them. Just something to keep an eye on.

7. Louisville-pretty simple scenario: if they win out and the committee forgives their losses for Balogun being out, they should jump UCONN and may sneak in for the final #1 seed if Maryland/Stanford don't come through. If they win out and the committee doesn't forgive their losses, they aren't jumping UCONN/Maryland/Stanford. If they lose again, no #1 seed.

Contenders for final #2 seed/likely 3 seeds:
8. NC State-win out and win the ACC tournament and they jump to a 2 most likely. If they drop any games aside from Louisville in the ACC title game, they're probably on the 3 line.

9. Northwestern-their resume looks pretty darn good right now. Definitely a 2 if they win the Big Ten tourney. Likely a 3 if they don't but could move up to a 2 depending on how other teams implode.

10. UCLA-the loss today hurts UCLA big time, I think they'll need a strong PAC tournament to move back up. Beating Stanford head to head a 2nd time would be a great way to do that.

Should safely host first weekend:
11. Mississippi State-bad loss today, need to beat Arkansas to stay a 3. If they beat Arkansas and make the SEC semis, I think they're safely a 3.

12. Texas A&M-not a ton of marquee wins but no bad losses. Have a huge opportunity coming up at home vs. SC and in the SEC tourney.

13. Arizona-bad loss without Aari today, committee might be forgiving though. Rest of the resume is pretty good aside from the awful OOC. Should host with wins over Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona State. Beating Stanford would push them back on the 3 line.

Last in hosting position:
14. Iowa-have some good wins and bad losses. Appear to be safely a 4 right now.

15. DePaul-Nova was a bad loss today (especially since it was a blowout), but if they finish strong they'll host first weekend.

16. Gonzaga-as long as they win out, I think they'll host.

Outside looking in:
17. Missouri State
18. Oregon State
19. Indiana
20. Princeton


Would not be surprised at all if we continue to see these change a lot before the NCAAs.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Likely in that order, although 2 and 3 may flip flop. At any rate, these are your clear cut top 3 teams we've seen all season.

If you really look at their schedules, I don't see how Baylor could possibly be seeded higher than Oregon. They both beat UConn by a similar margin, so that's a wash. Oregon has SO many more quality wins than Baylor it shouldn't even be a discussion.

 

[bballnut90]

If you really look at their schedules, I don't see how Baylor could possibly be seeded higher than Oregon. They both beat UConn by a similar margin, so that's a wash. Oregon has SO many more quality wins than Baylor it shouldn't even be a discussion.

Agree regarding the wins, but Baylor's only loss is to the #1 team and they were missing their best player. There's a very good chance they'd be undefeated if Cox was healthy. Oregon has losses to Louisville and Arizona State, although their win column is obviously a LOT stronger. Regardless, it wont matter much who gets the #2 overall seed and who gets #3. Both teams match up favorably against any 2 seed IMO and will play the other in the Final Four barring a massive upset.

The big winner is SC at #1 (if they win out) since they avoid playing one of the other big 3 prior to the title game.

 

[triaddukefan]

Agree regarding the wins, but Baylor's only loss is to the #1 team and they were missing their best player. There's a very good chance they'd be undefeated if Cox was healthy. Oregon has losses to Louisville and Arizona State, although their win column is obviously a LOT stronger. Regardless, it wont matter much who gets the #2 overall seed and who gets #3. The big winner is SC at #1 (if they win out) since they avoid playing one of the big 3 prior to the title game.

I wanna see Baylor and Oregon in the title game, but I guess thats not likely to happen

 

[bballnut90]

I wanna see Baylor and Oregon in the title game, but I guess thats not likely to happen

Same. No discredit to SC, but I think these are the 2 best teams in the country this year. That said, SC absolutely deserves to have #1 overall at this point.

If Indiana tanks and both Louisville/Arizona State finish really strong, it might give Oregon a push for #1 since SC's loss will look worse and Oregon's 2 wont look as bad.

 

[Floridaduck]

Beat Stanford Monday and (of course) the Washingtons and nobody can touch Oregon on either regular season RPI or SOS. Then the tournament gauntlet.
With the Big-12 pretty down this year (no other ranked teams), Baylor is 2-1 against currently ranked teams (Indiana, UConn, SoCar).
The Ducks will be 10-2 (L'ville, ASU). I guess Baylor gets a boost as defending champs (and being a very good team) but they sure have been able to cruise through this unchallenging schedule with ease.
Just bugs me a bit ("PLAY SOMEBODY!") when the Ducks (and every other Pac-12 team...witness today for example) have to go to war every week. End of Rant.

 

[SimpleDawg]

I see Stanford with a better chance of falling from the 2 line. They have a tough remaining schedule and every game they'll play from now on will be against a team that could beat them. That puts them in the most unfortunate position.

I think UConn and Louisville are fairly safe at the 2 line unless they lose to someone bad. I think Louisville could also move up depending on what happens with Maryland.

I think 7 teams are currently wavering for the last #2 spot. Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA, NcState, Mississippi State, Arizona, and Texas A&M. They have all a weak-to-a-decent chance, but still within a prayer's chance. But depending on where we get sent, I personally probably don't even want the last #2 seed. Maybe I could deal with Dallas, but Fort Wayne is obviously what I'm hoping for. Portland is just unfavorable for most people because they get sent too far west.

 

[triaddukefan]

If Northwestern wins out.... could they move past Connecticut?

 

[Plebe]

Agree regarding the wins, but Baylor's only loss is to the #1 team and they were missing their best player. There's a very good chance they'd be undefeated if Cox was healthy. Oregon has losses to Louisville and Arizona State, although their win column is obviously a LOT stronger. Regardless, it wont matter much who gets the #2 overall seed and who gets #3. Both teams match up favorably against any 2 seed IMO and will play the other in the Final Four barring a massive upset.

The big winner is SC at #1 (if they win out) since they avoid playing one of the other big 3 prior to the title game.

It comes down to the eternal conundrum of how the committee weighs Team A with better wins but worse losses vs. Team B with fewer good wins but "better" losses.

If the first reveal is any indication, this year's committee seemed to lean toward rewarding the team with the "cleaner" team sheet (fewer or no bad losses), although that wasn't applied consistently.

 

[bballnut90]

If Northwestern wins out.... could they move past Connecticut?

Interesting....haven't thought about that but if they beat both Iowa and Maryland in the Big Ten tournament, they'll have a very good resume. Wins against Duke, Maryland (2x), Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State. Losses to DePaul, Iowa and Maryland. Their wins are a lot stronger than UCONN's but their losses are weaker.

 

[Floridaduck]

It comes down to the eternal conundrum of how the committee weighs Team A with better wins but worse losses vs. Team B with fewer good wins but "better" losses.

If the first reveal is any indication, this year's committee seemed to lean toward rewarding the team with the "cleaner" team sheet (fewer or no bad losses), although that wasn't applied consistently.

Maryland is playing very well of late but if the above is true about the committee 4 losses may keep them off the top line. Louisville probably has the edge then.

 

[Plebe]

Interesting....haven't thought about that but if they beat both Iowa and Maryland in the Big Ten tournament, they'll have a very good resume. Wins against Duke, Maryland (2x), Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State. Losses to DePaul, Iowa and Maryland. Their wins are a lot stronger than UCONN's but their losses are weaker.

Yes, they can absolutely move ahead of Connecticut if they win out and with a win over Maryland. Their resume at that point would be just as strong as Maryland's currently is, and probably stronger than Louisville's currently.

 

[triaddukefan]

Interesting....haven't thought about that but if they beat both Iowa and Maryland in the Big Ten tournament, they'll have a very good resume. Wins against Duke, Maryland (2x), Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State. Losses to DePaul, Iowa and Maryland. Their wins are a lot stronger than UCONN's but their losses are weaker.

Ha. I actually had forgotten for a moment that they beat Duke. Quality win ... on the road. Not easy to come into Durham and beat Duke by 20. I think that win gave them the confidence that has propelled them to an historic season.

Just looked..... the Wildcats are #6 in the Massey.

 

[nwhoopfan]

It comes down to the eternal conundrum of how the committee weighs Team A with better wins but worse losses vs. Team B with fewer good wins but "better" losses.

If the first reveal is any indication, this year's committee seemed to lean toward rewarding the team with the "cleaner" team sheet (fewer or no bad losses), although that wasn't applied consistently.

You're probably right, but that is such a dumb philosophy to me. If it's close I can certainly see it being a deciding factor.

If you remove UConn since they both beat them, Baylor has beaten...Indiana. That's about it. I don't think you can call anyone from the Big 12 a quality win.

Oregon has beaten Arizona x2, Oregon St. x2, UCLA, Stanford (with another shot at them) and Arizona St. It's a landslide in favor of Oregon.

 

[Plebe]

Maryland is playing very well of late but if the above is true about the committee 4 losses may keep them off the top line. Louisville probably has the edge then.

Maryland's only losses are to SC, NC State, Northwestern and Iowa.
Louisville has losses to Ohio State and Georgia Tech.

Maryland would have the clear edge in terms of "better" losses.

 

[bballnut90]

Yes, they can absolutely move ahead of Connecticut if they win out and with a win over Maryland. Their resume at that point would be just as strong as Maryland's currently is, and probably stronger than Louisville's currently.

Who would've thought NW would ever be in contention for a #1 seed this year. I can't even name their coach off hand but he/she should would be one of my top picks for NCOY.

 

[Plebe]

Who would've thought NW would ever be in contention for a #1 seed this year. I can't even name their coach off hand but he/she should would be one of my top picks for NCOY.

Joe McKeown. "Put some respect on his name"

 

[triaddukefan]

Funny thing is..... of all the top teams... Northwestern is the one team I havent really seen play. I watched them for 3 quarters in December..... turned the stream off... and havent seen them again.

 

[Plebe]

You're probably right, but that is such a dumb philosophy to me. If it's close I can certainly see it being a deciding factor.

If you remove UConn since they both beat them, Baylor has beaten...Indiana. That's about it. I don't think you can call anyone from the Big 12 a quality win.

Oregon has beaten Arizona x2, Oregon St. x2, UCLA, Stanford (with another shot at them) and Arizona St. It's a landslide in favor of Oregon.

There's the philosophy and then there's the application.

Obviously, at some point you need good wins. Princeton only has a loss to Iowa, but that's not gonna get them into the top 16. Maryland has losses to Iowa and Northwestern and NC State, but they're likely a #1 seed.

Baylor's wins over TCU are roughly as valuable as Oregon's win (singular) over Arizona State. Then the committee might be swayed by the fact that Oregon lost to ASU, whereas Baylor went undefeated against teams at a comparable level (Indiana and TCU).

 

[Plebe]

Who would've thought NW would ever be in contention for a #1 seed this year. I can't even name their coach off hand but he/she should would be one of my top picks for NCOY.

Also, when I evaluated resumes prior to the Feb. 3 reveal, I had Northwestern at #13. Instead the committee had them at #16, which I thought was really unjust. If Northwestern isn't at least a high 3 seed this reveal, it will be a travesty.

 

[triaddukefan]

Also, when I evaluated resumes prior to the Feb. 3 reveal, I had Northwestern at #13. Instead the committee had them at #16, which I thought was really unjust. If Northwestern isn't at least a high 3 seed this reveal, it will be a travesty.

when is the next reveal

 

[Plebe]

when is the next reveal

week from tomorrow

 

[maccca3232]

While I understand the rationale of giving teams the benefit of the doubt if an important player was unavailable, I am not convinced Louisville missing Balogun qualifies.

Other teams have beaten better opposition missing players as (or more important) than her.

Louisville without Balogun: L Florida St. (#25) and L Syracuse (#93)
UConn without Dangerfield: W Dayton (#52) and W Seton Hall (#70)
Baylor without Cox: L South Carolina (#2), W Indiana (#17), W South Fla. (#67) and W Georgia (#84).

RPI as at 22 Feb 2020

Even so, it appears both Maryland and Louisville are more deserving of a higher seed than UConn.

 

[bballnut90]

While I understand the rationale of giving teams the benefit of the doubt if an important player was available, I am not convinced Louisville missing Balogun qualifies.

Other teams have beaten better opposition missing players as (or more important) than her.

Louisville without Balogun: L Florida St. (#25) and L Syracuse (#93)
UConn without Dangerfield: W Dayton (#52) and W Seton Hall (#70)
Baylor without Cox: L South Carolina (#2), W Indiana (#17), W South Fla. (#67) and W Georgia (#84).

RPI as at 22 Feb 2020

Even so, it appears both Maryland and Louisville are more deserving of a higher seed than UConn.

I agree with that point. Louisville was likely due for a loss as is, although it's impossible to say of having Balogun vs Syracuse or FSU wouldve made a difference.

I have nothing to base this on, but my guess is that the NCAA would use this as leverage for Louisville if they're essentially tied or viewed as comparable to another team. Louisville is probably locked in as a 2 seed as is. If they lose to NC State in the ACC tourney and are very close with UCONN in the eyes of the committee for the Fort Wayne 2 seed, I could see them favoring Louisville because their losses were both when EB was out.

I didnt note this before either, but Louisville being just a few hours away from Fort Wayne likely incentivizes the committee to put them there. We regularly see the NCAA put nearby teams in closer regionals whether they are ahead or behind other teams of the same seed. Last year Stanford was possibly ahead of Oregon on the 2 line, but everyone knew it was locked in stone that Oregon was getting the Portland regional. Louisville is still 3-4 hours away but might get preferential treatment due to this.

 

[eebmg]

If Northwestern wins out.... could they move past Connecticut?

Oh the shame.