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You couldn't really ask for anything else - two blue bloods battling it out, on the biggest stage imaginable. A vast majority of the talking heads are picking against us, but remember, we know something they don't. On paper, it seems like we could be in trouble, but I like the match-up for us. It sounds insane, because they go three deep with bouncy, large NBA players in the front court, but Kentucky has weaknesses, they're just more subtle, and you have to dig a little bit deeper to find them. As somebody who has watched a dozen + Kentucky games this season, I'm quite familiar with them.
For starters, let's talk about Dakari Johnson. He's a terror on the backboards, and there isn't a big man in the country with a better combination of foot work, size, and touch. He's basically a poor man's Demarcus Cousins, and if he sticks around for another year, 17 and 10 isn't out of the question. Ever since Willy Cauley-Stein's injury pressed Johnson into duty, he's been averaging 11 points and 5 rebounds, and that's against front courts like Louisville's.
But, here's the thing: there's a reason he only played 14 minutes a game this season, and almost none of it has to do with his production offensively. On defense, he's a bit of a laboring wanderer who tires quickly, struggles defending the pick and roll, and is still learning the intricacies of D-1 defensive schemes. Against a back court tandem as explosive and razor-quick as ours, he's a candidate to be pried away at in open space by Napier and Boatright until Calipari has no choice to take him out of the game and resort to smaller lineup with Poythress at the four and Randle at the five.
Julius Randle isn't really all that different than Johnson, he's just a little bit better in every facet. He encountered similar struggles defensively earlier in the season that Johnson's experiencing now, and although he's improved on that end, he's still susceptible to breakdowns in rotations and vulnerable against quicker stretch fours (like DeAndre Daniels). Much like Johnson, he isn't the most nimble defending the pick and roll, and if Napier and Boatright were able to eviscerate Florida - the very best defense in the land - in the pick and roll, Kentucky has quite the predicament on their hands: switch ball screens and allow Randle and Johnson to drown on the perimeter, or swarm screens and risk Daniels and Giffey getting loose from three. Neither situation is particularly desirable for the young Cats, and if they attempt to drop their big man on the high screen - which is what most teams seem to be doing - good luck with that, it will be a pitch and catch drill.
Here's another secret about Kentucky that nobody ever seems to mention: they don't protect the rim very well. Dakari Johnson, although close to seven feet and highly skilled, is vertically challenged, as is reflected by the fact that he only averages 1.6 blocks per 40 minutes. Johnson is even worse, averaging 1.0 block per 40 minutes. Marcus Lee is an explosive, rangy athlete and capable rim-protector, but his minutes have been spotty at best. Napier, Boatright, and even Giffey should benefit from this (especially after playing Florida, a team that closes gaps as well as any I've seen), but Daniels is the guy who could really exploit this weakness. Look for Ollie to design a lot of isolation's where he clears out one side of the floor and allows Daniels to attack Randle.
All this being said, Kentucky still possesses a massive height and girth advantage over us at pretty much every position, and if Nolan and Brimah don't come to play, we could be in a lot of trouble. You also have to be aware of Poythress crashing the glass from the weak side - he's mastered that art as well as any player I can remember in college basketball. I'm guessing Ollie will defend Randle and Johnson in the post the same way he's been defending every dangerous big man - stick one defender on them and shade them with Napier and Boatright. If Randle gets off, we may have to adjust and respond with the hard double, but I don't anticipate that happening. If Randle has a weakness from a scoring perspective, it's that he occasionally struggles to score over length. It's possible he could just overpower the initial defender, but if the help arrives quick enough, we may be able to force a low-percentage shot.
UConn's biggest advantage, of course, is in the back court. For anybody who still struggles to differentiate between the Harrison twins (and it took me until about mid-March), Andrew is the point guard, Aaron is the shooting guard. Aaron Harrison had had a very good point guard, and has hit an absurd three consecutive game winning threes. He's still only about a 42% shooter in the tournament, and he can be a little bit lackadaisical defensively, but he's definitely the better of the two twins. Andrew, on the other hand, just isn't a tremendously good player at this juncture. He shot just 37% from the field during the regular season (a performance he's replicated in the tournament), and he's averaging 4 turnovers a game since Kentucky's tournament opener against Kansas State.
Andrew Harrison's favorite move on offense is to barrel into traffic, toss up a shot, and hope for a bail-out foul call. In fact, Kentucky, as a team, has the tendency to storm into the lane and rely on their athleticism to bail them out. Against UConn's heavily-layered defense, and shot blockers, the ball is going to have to move, or else they'll struggle. Harrison, though, is particularly prone to playing out of control, and he's been especially loose with the ball in this tournament, accounting for 20 turnovers in five games. When you're struggling with ball control and decision making, Boatright's probably the last guard on the planet you want to be seeing. Clearly, UConn will duplicate their game plan against Florida - Boatright will hound Andrew Harrison, and Napier will remain glued to Aaron for the entirety of the game like he did against Frazier.
The height discrepancy in the back court is really of very little concern to me. I agree with those who have been saying that we tend to play better against bigger back courts (like Memphis) than smaller back courts (Louisville). There is a very pronounced quickness advantage at play here, and although Kentucky obviously has an edge in the post, I suspect Boatright and Napier will make entry passes exceptionally difficult with their relentless pressure. Aside from a brief and very disastrous Tyler Olander (I love the kid, but he's just vastly over-matched against guys like Young, not sure why Ollie even put him in that situation) cameo on Saturday, we really did a very good job of keeping Young in check and forcing him to catch it far away from the basket. If we can deny Young deep post position - who could start at left tackle in the NFL - there is no reason we can't have similar success keeping Randle at bay.
On the wing, I would expect Giffey/Kromah and Young/Poythress to play to close to a standstill. Giffey has been struggling badly with his shot lately (his attempts Saturday weren't even close), but there is no better time for him to rediscover it given the open looks that could be available against the Wildcat defense. I trust he and Kromah will both be able to contain James Young and Alex Poythress.
Don't take any of this to mean I think UConn is significantly better than Kentucky. Kentucky just beat Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan, and Wisconsin, four of the very best teams in the country. They are legitimate, and they are going to make us earn it. They had every opportunity to fold in each of their previous four games, and they just kept going. In terms of mental toughness, you won't find a team better, so don't buy into the narrative that freshman can't handle the big lights. Whatever happens, this season has been a blast, and although it sucks it has to come to an end, it would be a hell of a lot nicer to close things up on a win.
For starters, let's talk about Dakari Johnson. He's a terror on the backboards, and there isn't a big man in the country with a better combination of foot work, size, and touch. He's basically a poor man's Demarcus Cousins, and if he sticks around for another year, 17 and 10 isn't out of the question. Ever since Willy Cauley-Stein's injury pressed Johnson into duty, he's been averaging 11 points and 5 rebounds, and that's against front courts like Louisville's.
But, here's the thing: there's a reason he only played 14 minutes a game this season, and almost none of it has to do with his production offensively. On defense, he's a bit of a laboring wanderer who tires quickly, struggles defending the pick and roll, and is still learning the intricacies of D-1 defensive schemes. Against a back court tandem as explosive and razor-quick as ours, he's a candidate to be pried away at in open space by Napier and Boatright until Calipari has no choice to take him out of the game and resort to smaller lineup with Poythress at the four and Randle at the five.
Julius Randle isn't really all that different than Johnson, he's just a little bit better in every facet. He encountered similar struggles defensively earlier in the season that Johnson's experiencing now, and although he's improved on that end, he's still susceptible to breakdowns in rotations and vulnerable against quicker stretch fours (like DeAndre Daniels). Much like Johnson, he isn't the most nimble defending the pick and roll, and if Napier and Boatright were able to eviscerate Florida - the very best defense in the land - in the pick and roll, Kentucky has quite the predicament on their hands: switch ball screens and allow Randle and Johnson to drown on the perimeter, or swarm screens and risk Daniels and Giffey getting loose from three. Neither situation is particularly desirable for the young Cats, and if they attempt to drop their big man on the high screen - which is what most teams seem to be doing - good luck with that, it will be a pitch and catch drill.
Here's another secret about Kentucky that nobody ever seems to mention: they don't protect the rim very well. Dakari Johnson, although close to seven feet and highly skilled, is vertically challenged, as is reflected by the fact that he only averages 1.6 blocks per 40 minutes. Johnson is even worse, averaging 1.0 block per 40 minutes. Marcus Lee is an explosive, rangy athlete and capable rim-protector, but his minutes have been spotty at best. Napier, Boatright, and even Giffey should benefit from this (especially after playing Florida, a team that closes gaps as well as any I've seen), but Daniels is the guy who could really exploit this weakness. Look for Ollie to design a lot of isolation's where he clears out one side of the floor and allows Daniels to attack Randle.
All this being said, Kentucky still possesses a massive height and girth advantage over us at pretty much every position, and if Nolan and Brimah don't come to play, we could be in a lot of trouble. You also have to be aware of Poythress crashing the glass from the weak side - he's mastered that art as well as any player I can remember in college basketball. I'm guessing Ollie will defend Randle and Johnson in the post the same way he's been defending every dangerous big man - stick one defender on them and shade them with Napier and Boatright. If Randle gets off, we may have to adjust and respond with the hard double, but I don't anticipate that happening. If Randle has a weakness from a scoring perspective, it's that he occasionally struggles to score over length. It's possible he could just overpower the initial defender, but if the help arrives quick enough, we may be able to force a low-percentage shot.
UConn's biggest advantage, of course, is in the back court. For anybody who still struggles to differentiate between the Harrison twins (and it took me until about mid-March), Andrew is the point guard, Aaron is the shooting guard. Aaron Harrison had had a very good point guard, and has hit an absurd three consecutive game winning threes. He's still only about a 42% shooter in the tournament, and he can be a little bit lackadaisical defensively, but he's definitely the better of the two twins. Andrew, on the other hand, just isn't a tremendously good player at this juncture. He shot just 37% from the field during the regular season (a performance he's replicated in the tournament), and he's averaging 4 turnovers a game since Kentucky's tournament opener against Kansas State.
Andrew Harrison's favorite move on offense is to barrel into traffic, toss up a shot, and hope for a bail-out foul call. In fact, Kentucky, as a team, has the tendency to storm into the lane and rely on their athleticism to bail them out. Against UConn's heavily-layered defense, and shot blockers, the ball is going to have to move, or else they'll struggle. Harrison, though, is particularly prone to playing out of control, and he's been especially loose with the ball in this tournament, accounting for 20 turnovers in five games. When you're struggling with ball control and decision making, Boatright's probably the last guard on the planet you want to be seeing. Clearly, UConn will duplicate their game plan against Florida - Boatright will hound Andrew Harrison, and Napier will remain glued to Aaron for the entirety of the game like he did against Frazier.
The height discrepancy in the back court is really of very little concern to me. I agree with those who have been saying that we tend to play better against bigger back courts (like Memphis) than smaller back courts (Louisville). There is a very pronounced quickness advantage at play here, and although Kentucky obviously has an edge in the post, I suspect Boatright and Napier will make entry passes exceptionally difficult with their relentless pressure. Aside from a brief and very disastrous Tyler Olander (I love the kid, but he's just vastly over-matched against guys like Young, not sure why Ollie even put him in that situation) cameo on Saturday, we really did a very good job of keeping Young in check and forcing him to catch it far away from the basket. If we can deny Young deep post position - who could start at left tackle in the NFL - there is no reason we can't have similar success keeping Randle at bay.
On the wing, I would expect Giffey/Kromah and Young/Poythress to play to close to a standstill. Giffey has been struggling badly with his shot lately (his attempts Saturday weren't even close), but there is no better time for him to rediscover it given the open looks that could be available against the Wildcat defense. I trust he and Kromah will both be able to contain James Young and Alex Poythress.
Don't take any of this to mean I think UConn is significantly better than Kentucky. Kentucky just beat Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan, and Wisconsin, four of the very best teams in the country. They are legitimate, and they are going to make us earn it. They had every opportunity to fold in each of their previous four games, and they just kept going. In terms of mental toughness, you won't find a team better, so don't buy into the narrative that freshman can't handle the big lights. Whatever happens, this season has been a blast, and although it sucks it has to come to an end, it would be a hell of a lot nicer to close things up on a win.
